On openings

While Douglas Bell and Robert Silver have been in the midst of an argument over the NDP's position and perception, it's worth noting that perhaps the most important news comes from Bell's offhand comment as to where the Libs now stand:

Ig, late and reluctant though he may have been, did sign on to The Deal along with every other Liberal MP. And while the Libs may well decide to back out (one of Ig's hench thingys told me Monday that "it is still way too early to make that call")...

Now, I haven't made much secret of the fact that the decision for the Libs looks to be an obvious one. But it's worth noting that remaining noncommittal for the moment may ultimately make for the smoothest path to bring it to power.

After all, in the wake of a wave of commentary rightly bashing Harper's irresponsible hyperpartisanship, the Cons are obviously looking to shed that label by appearing to work with the Libs rather than looking for excuses to take as many gratuitous potshots as they normally would. Which means that as long as the Libs remain publicly open to the idea of working with Harper and supporting the budget, it'll be awfully tough for the Cons to mount a strong public campaign against the coalition.

And perhaps more importantly, Harper can hardly justify once again playing games with the timing of votes on the budget and throne speech if the Libs haven't indicated their intention to vote against them. As a result, a measure of uncertainty - and indeed some public optimism about the Cons' budget - may be the best way to avoid Harper's intention to cling to power at all costs.

In contrast, if Ignatieff's message were that he planned to go ahead with the coalition, then the Cons would undoubtedly come out with guns blazing once again. And it's far too likely that Harper would simply choose to shut down Parliament once again and resume ruling by fiat: having fled democratic non-confidence votes twice already, there's little reason to think he'll willingly face one now.

Mind you, the above isn't to say that the Libs couldn't stand to significantly refine their message. In particular, Ignatieff (like Layton) should be emphasizing that the Cons need to earn the trust of the opposition and the country regardless of what is or isn't included in their budget.

And of course it's entirely possible that Ignatieff's current equivocation is based on an attempt to avoid alienating coalition supporters before he ultimately sides with Harper. (Though as I've noted, the NDP should be in a great position to punish him for that result if it comes to pass.)

But at the very least, there's a strong case to be made that a strategy of saying now isn't the time to make final decisions may be the best way for the Libs to lay the groundwork for the democratic coalition. Which means that the next few weeks will best be spent making sure that Ignatieff takes the best of the options he's left open.