Hiatus

There will be little or no posting from this corner until next week. Hope everybody's enjoying their summer...

Hiatus

 Gone trippin'. Back to this space on my return.

Migration in progress

After using Twitter as my main political social media outlet for years, I've joined the many in the process of shifting to Mastodon. You'll find a link to my account in the right sidebar - and hopefully the new year will see the continued development of communities which better serve users rather than the whims of tycoons.

Light blogging ahead

 Don't expect much from this space for the next week-plus. Enjoy your summer in the meantime!

Light blogging ahead

Expect this space to go quiet for the next week-plus. For those not following on Twitter, I'll still be somewhat active at @juristblog.

Light blogging ahead

Off hither and/or yon for a few days. Try to entertain yourselves.

Light blogging ahead

Taking a break for the long weekend and a couple of days beyond. Expect little to no blogging until next week.

Radio activity

For those not yet aware, I'll be appearing on Canadian Glen's The View Up Here tonight (7 PM Saskatchewan time) to talk about Saskatchewan's ongoing provincial election. Stop by and have a listen!

Merry Xmas to all!

And to all, a reminder that you'd best get your holiday dinner inspected for yourself, because the Harper government isn't so much on the job.

Light blogging ahead

There'll be little if any blogging in this space for the next week. (Since we should probably test once and for all whether readers are happier avoiding political talk during the Olympics.)

Light blogging ahead

Road tripping for the next few days. I may have a chance to post intermittently, but likely won't quite as frequently as usual. Enjoy the long weekend in the meantime!

Light blogging ahead

Off to warmer climes until next weekend, with little or no posting in the meantime. Enjoy the week!

#skndpldr - Super Happy Mega Fun Pundit Navel-Gazing Post

I'll have plenty more to add in later posts about the opportunities the Saskatchewan NDP holds under Cam Broten's leadership. But before this weekend's convention is too far in the rear-view mirror, I'll take a few minutes to assess my own analysis of the leadership campaign.

And I'd like to think I had my share of successes.

My first-ballot best guess numbers were closer to pegging the candidates' positioning than any other poll or source, getting within 3% of each of the candidates' support levels. And my first-ballot analysis was on target in identifying exactly what Cam Broten needed to accomplish to have a chance on the second ballot - even if I underestimated his likelihood of managing to leapfrog Ryan Meili. 

But therein lies the rub: I failed to account appropriately for what proved to be the deciding factor, even after identifying Broten's potential down-ballot appeal as his biggest strength from day one. So where did I go wrong in expecting Meili to hold enough down-ballot support to win based on the first-ballot results?

My working assumption is that I failed to account for an "I like him, but..." factor.

For all the post-campaign spin about a divided party, all indications I've seen are to the effect that each of the leadership candidates was broadly liked by a range of NDP members extending well beyond his immediate supporters. And Meili in particular stood out on that front, with at least one internal poll placing his net favourability rating at +67%.

It then didn't seem plausible to me that an electorate where a strong majority of members even outside of Meili's supporters had a positive view of him would line up strongly against him on a second ballot. (And that went doubly when his second-ballot opponent had been tagged with a marginally higher "will not support" number, and when an army of volunteers was at the ready to chase down the vote of anybody with a marginally positive impression of Meili.)

But ultimately, there is a difference between liking a candidate personally, and actually casting a ballot for him. And Broten looks to have convinced a substantial number of voters who have a favourable view of Meili generally to throw their support elsewhere in choosing their party's leader.

In retrospect, there were some signs which I could have taken into account in seeing that as a possibility - including some actual second-choice data and Broten's slight improvement on my expectations for the first ballot. And indeed, both campaigns look to have been far closer to the mark than I was in assessing the meaning of the first-ballot outcome.

So my takeaway from the just-concluded campaign is this: as much as the HOAG factor matters, a modest lead in favourability may not matter much at all when party members face a one-time vote. 

Light blogging ahead

I'll be largely away from the blog for the next week and a half. Expect only a few posts in the meantime, but I'll be back to the usual pace before too long.

Comments

Since Echo's comment system is being discontinued, I've reverted back to Blogspot's commenting system for now.

Please let me know if you have any issues in posting new comments. I'll be working on importing previous comments, and will hopefully have all of them together before too long.

Saskatchewan NDP Leadership 2013 - What's In Store

While the Saskatchewan NDP's 2013 leadership campaign officially started last week and at least a couple of the candidates have already made strong entrances, I haven't yet had a chance to comment much on the contest.

But rest assured that there's plenty coming, especially with more candidate announcements coming over the next couple of days. In particular, I'll be setting up a reference page (similar to this one from the federal party's leadership race) to offer stable links to basic information about the campaign, as well as taking closer looks at the candidates as the race develops.

In the meantime, Leftdog is providing a steady flow of updates from the candidates.

Light blogging ahead

I'm off to destinations unknown until next week, with little to no blogging in the interim. Enjoy the long weekend in the meantime!

Three questions

Plenty of others have already discussed the factors they'll be taking into account in evaluating the NDP's leadership candidates as the campaign progresses. But as we approach the point where members will be casting ballots which will ultimately determine the outcome of the race, I'll set out my three basic questions in approaching each candidate (which I'll then use to evaluate each contender before making an endorsement).

1. What direction will he/she set for the NDP?

This question encompasses a variety of considerations including underlying values, specific policies and organizational strategies. The leader of the opposition (and hopefully Prime Minister to be) figures to have more ability than all but a few other people to set the tone for Canadian political activity over the years to come - and the most basic question for any leadership candidate is whether members actually agree with the goals and priorities that candidate will set if elected to the leadership.

2. How will he/she respond when pushed off course?

But then, the political scene doesn't allow any single leader to completely dictate the course of events. And so I'd consider it similarly important that a leadership candidate possess both the right values to apply in addressing the unexpected, and strong enough political instincts to avoid getting caught off guard.

3. How do the candidate's personal traits affect his/her ability to reach the destination implied by the answer to question 1?

Finally, there's the question of how a candidate's personality, organizational style and other personal traits affect the likelihood of being seen positively enough by the general public to be able to reach his or her goals - as the most noble of ends won't do much to help the NDP or the country if a leader can't connect enough with Canadians to advance them.

Again, I'll be examining each of the candidates through the above lens in determining how I'll be voting. And I'll encourage other NDP members to do the same - even if the result is to reach different conclusions than I do.

Ten More Days

I'll post a quick reminder that the deadline to register for an NDP membership in order to be eligible to vote to elect a new leader is February 18 - ten days from today. And particularly for voters who supported the NDP in 2011 for the first time as the best alternative to Stephen Harper's Conservatives (as well as for younger Canadians who would have voted if they'd been able), the leadership election will represent a unique opportunity to set the direction of a strong and growing Official Opposition in the absence of decades-old factions and entrenched interests.

So I'll encourage anybody interested to read up and then sign up - as it'll take as many active citizens as possible to help turn Canada in a better direction.

Leadership 2012 Reference Page Update

Once again I've made some changes to my Leadership 2012 Reference Page. For those curious about the content of the candidate profiles so far, I've dealt mostly with personality and strategy based on the lack of detailed platforms for comparison so far in the campaign. But I'll continue to point out and comment on policies as they're released, and put together candidate-based policy reviews before the February membership cutoff.

As always, comments and suggestions are more than welcome.