Regina Coronation Park Nomination Meeting
An earlier post documenting the speeches managed to disappear, so I'll pick up proceedings at the voting stage. Of note so far:
- Turnout has been set at 168 voting delegates and 38 visitors.
- In his speech, Jaime Garcia announced a membership sales number of 118 - which would seem to give him an easy victory if he's managed to bring his supporters out, but from other membership numbers I've heard there are plenty who didn't make it.
- In the crowd, the most noteworthy development has been a surprisingly high number of Fred Kress stickers; otherwise the shows of support for candidates are in line with what I'd expected.
- Roger Bucsis' introducer noted that it was his first nomination meeting, and a quick survey from chair Tim Williams reveals that the same is true for a large chunk of the crowd.
2:24 First-ballot results: Bucsis 36, Garcia 74, Harder 5, Kress 49, McGregor 3. Bucsis, Garcia and Kress go on to the second ballot - though we'll see whether Bucsis stays on since he can't overtake Kress even with all of the outstanding votes.
2:33 On to the second ballot, with nobody further dropping off.
2:49 Following a brief address from Trent Wotherspoon, the second-ballot results are:
Bucsis 33, Garcia 80, Kress 50. Garcia is only 2 votes short of a majority, but we're on to a third ballot.
2:57 Following the third ballot, Noah Evanchuk offers an update on his campaign in Palliser.
3:10 And the winner is Jaime Garcia, 81-60. Again congratulations to all of the candidates, and we'll look forward to Jaime's work as the NDP's candidate in Regina Coronation Park.
Showing posts with label fred kress. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fred kress. Show all posts
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Friday, June 18, 2010
Regina Coronation Park Nomination Wrapup
The Regina Coronation Park nomination race comes to a close tomorrow, and at this point the best assessment possible is that nearly anything could happen. With five candidates in the mix and at least four having obvious paths to victory, tomorrow's meeting promises to be a long but fascinating one.
From the start of the race, Jaime Garcia got the jump on his competitors in finding innovative ways of getting his name and face known. And while he's taken a few unusual steps late in the campaign (particularly a focus on fund-raising at a point when most campaigns would seemingly be focused on spending rather than attracting money), his effective image development, billboards around the riding and strong contingent at the all-candidates' debate still figure to give him an advantage in getting himself known - which is a particularly important consideration on later ballots. And while Garcia got flustered a few times in the debate, he hasn't done much to rule himself out as a second choice for anybody, making him the favourite going into the nomination meeting.
Before discussing Tamara Harder, I'll acknowledge my bias once again: she's a longtime friend, and I've been glad to be involved in her campaign. Even taking that bias into account, though, I'm not sure how anybody could have come away from the all-candidates' debate thinking that any candidate other than Harder would make for the strongest, most knowledgeable voice at a caucus or cabinet table - which on paper should combine with an effective campaign plan to make her a serious contender. Unfortunately, though, it's not clear how much her message has actually managed to resonate in the riding. And that means that in addition to appealing to female voters (and others looking to reach the party's 50% target), she may need to use her speech Saturday to sway enough undecideds into her camp to keep her on the ballot.
Fred Kress' strength in the campaign has always been his connections to Kim Trew and the Regina Coronation Park NDP machine, and that advantage along with a fairly strong debate showing make him another candidate with a chance to eke out a later-ballot victory. But Kress hasn't kept up much of a public presence during the course of the campaign, and he may have to rely on other candidates' supporters not showing up to give him a chance to stay in contention.
Former Green deputy leader Tory McGregor presents as a strong candidate on paper, and has worked hard to get himself known in NDP circles over the course of the nomination race. But I'm not sure his focus on the Legislative Assembly has translated into as much support as he'd have hoped within Regina Coronation Park itself, either in terms of new members or swaying existing ones. And that leaves him as the longshot candidate for tomorrow.
Finally, Roger Bucsis was a late entrant into the nomination race, hasn't put together even a minimal public presence, and was somewhat of a disappointment in the candidates' debate (with regular non-answers even on questions going to the core of NDP policies and principles). But he's apparently managed to sell a flurry of memberships in the campaign's later stages - and while I'm not sure where he'd get later-ballot support, it's not out of the question that he could sweep to a quick win if all of his supporters are motivated to turn up.
So where does that leave Regina Coronation Park members deciding who to vote for?
Endorsement
Based on the above, my endorsement shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. While each of the other candidates brings some pluses to the table, Tamara Harder stands out in combining strong progressive principles, an impeccable command of policy and the ability to communicate with all kinds of audiences - giving her by far the best chance to serve as a leader within the NDP, rather than looking primarily to reflect the party's message within the riding. So I'm glad to endorse Tamara Harder as the best choice for Regina Coronation Park.
Prediction
But of course, tomorrow's results will be decided primarily on the number of supporters each candidate can convince to give up a sunny June afternoon - making family, friends, and community connections within the riding the likely deciding factors. So here's how I'll estimate the chance of winning for each candidate.
35% - Jaime Garcia
25% - Roger Bucsis
20% - Tamara Harder
15% - Fred Kress
5% - Tory McGregor
Again, the meeting will start at 1 PM at Thom Collegiate, with the doors opening at 12 PM. We'll find out soon whether the nomination will be as well attended as Regina South's last night, and which of the factors will ultimately win out in deciding who will represent the NDP in Regina Coronation Park.
From the start of the race, Jaime Garcia got the jump on his competitors in finding innovative ways of getting his name and face known. And while he's taken a few unusual steps late in the campaign (particularly a focus on fund-raising at a point when most campaigns would seemingly be focused on spending rather than attracting money), his effective image development, billboards around the riding and strong contingent at the all-candidates' debate still figure to give him an advantage in getting himself known - which is a particularly important consideration on later ballots. And while Garcia got flustered a few times in the debate, he hasn't done much to rule himself out as a second choice for anybody, making him the favourite going into the nomination meeting.
Before discussing Tamara Harder, I'll acknowledge my bias once again: she's a longtime friend, and I've been glad to be involved in her campaign. Even taking that bias into account, though, I'm not sure how anybody could have come away from the all-candidates' debate thinking that any candidate other than Harder would make for the strongest, most knowledgeable voice at a caucus or cabinet table - which on paper should combine with an effective campaign plan to make her a serious contender. Unfortunately, though, it's not clear how much her message has actually managed to resonate in the riding. And that means that in addition to appealing to female voters (and others looking to reach the party's 50% target), she may need to use her speech Saturday to sway enough undecideds into her camp to keep her on the ballot.
Fred Kress' strength in the campaign has always been his connections to Kim Trew and the Regina Coronation Park NDP machine, and that advantage along with a fairly strong debate showing make him another candidate with a chance to eke out a later-ballot victory. But Kress hasn't kept up much of a public presence during the course of the campaign, and he may have to rely on other candidates' supporters not showing up to give him a chance to stay in contention.
Former Green deputy leader Tory McGregor presents as a strong candidate on paper, and has worked hard to get himself known in NDP circles over the course of the nomination race. But I'm not sure his focus on the Legislative Assembly has translated into as much support as he'd have hoped within Regina Coronation Park itself, either in terms of new members or swaying existing ones. And that leaves him as the longshot candidate for tomorrow.
Finally, Roger Bucsis was a late entrant into the nomination race, hasn't put together even a minimal public presence, and was somewhat of a disappointment in the candidates' debate (with regular non-answers even on questions going to the core of NDP policies and principles). But he's apparently managed to sell a flurry of memberships in the campaign's later stages - and while I'm not sure where he'd get later-ballot support, it's not out of the question that he could sweep to a quick win if all of his supporters are motivated to turn up.
So where does that leave Regina Coronation Park members deciding who to vote for?
Endorsement
Based on the above, my endorsement shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. While each of the other candidates brings some pluses to the table, Tamara Harder stands out in combining strong progressive principles, an impeccable command of policy and the ability to communicate with all kinds of audiences - giving her by far the best chance to serve as a leader within the NDP, rather than looking primarily to reflect the party's message within the riding. So I'm glad to endorse Tamara Harder as the best choice for Regina Coronation Park.
Prediction
But of course, tomorrow's results will be decided primarily on the number of supporters each candidate can convince to give up a sunny June afternoon - making family, friends, and community connections within the riding the likely deciding factors. So here's how I'll estimate the chance of winning for each candidate.
35% - Jaime Garcia
25% - Roger Bucsis
20% - Tamara Harder
15% - Fred Kress
5% - Tory McGregor
Again, the meeting will start at 1 PM at Thom Collegiate, with the doors opening at 12 PM. We'll find out soon whether the nomination will be as well attended as Regina South's last night, and which of the factors will ultimately win out in deciding who will represent the NDP in Regina Coronation Park.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Regina Coronation Park - Roger Bucsis Enters NDP Nomination Race
Jason mentions the news only as an aside, but it's worth noting that there's another apparent entrant in the already-crowded field pursuing the NDP's nomination in Regina Coronation Park.
Unfortunately there isn't much to be said about Roger Bucsis based on what's publicly available to this point - and he'll figure to need to change that in a hurry in order to make up ground on his competitors. But it's still a plus to see even more interest in the race, and it'll be interesting to see how much of a challenge Bucsis can mount following his late start.
Unfortunately there isn't much to be said about Roger Bucsis based on what's publicly available to this point - and he'll figure to need to change that in a hurry in order to make up ground on his competitors. But it's still a plus to see even more interest in the race, and it'll be interesting to see how much of a challenge Bucsis can mount following his late start.
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Saskatchewan NDP - Regina Nomination Roundup
To date, I haven't followed up much on the Regina Coronation Park and Regina South nomination races since mentioning the entry of each candidate. But now that the fields look to be fairly well set, let's take a closer look at what each candidate is currently doing to build support online.
Off the top, it's worth noting that each one of the six candidates has put together at least a reasonably well-updated Facebook group in support of his or her effort - not to mention that all six candidates attended the Prince Albert provincial convention to interact with the broader party. But it's worth also pointing out some of the creative steps taken beyond that strong baseline of activity for all of the candidates. So let's go through the candidates in alphabetical order by riding to see what they've been up to.
Regina Coronation Park
The first candidate to review also looks to be winner in the creativity department so far. Jaime Garcia's campaign has left no stone unturned in getting his name out into the public, with the efforts so far ranging from billboards to custom pop bottles in addition to active Facebook, Twitter and web presences. And the fact that he's also held a fund-raising dinner hints at how he's been able to afford forms of advertising not normally expected in a nomination race. About the only question I'd have about Garcia's campaign so far is his degree of focus on candidate branding over policy - but he's certainly done well in getting his name known.
The other Regina Coronation Park candidate with a complete set of online campaign tools is Tamara Harder, who likewise features regular Facebook and Twitter updates to go with the strongest web presence among the Coronation Park candidates. (Disclaimer: As mentioned before, I'm helping out with Tamara's campaign.)
Not surprisingly, Fred Kress is somewhat behind the younger candidates in his online presence, as he's the candidate with the longest gap in online updates (having last posted on March 21). Hopefully he'll get back in the habit of posting, as his earlier updates offered some sharper and more candid commentary than most of the candidates have provided.
Finally, Tory McGregor has also gone awhile since his last update on March 23. But it's worth highlighting a few of his earlier entries which reflect the most direct effort of any of the candidates to educate voters about an area of interest (that being the Sask Party's proposed changes to environmental regulation).
Regina South
As expected, both of the candidates in Regina South have maintained a strong online presence. But the most notable new development looks to be Heather McIntyre's Coffee Talk feature, offering visitors the chance to hear conversational interviews about Heather's campaign (with more apparently to come) to accompany her regular written updates.
Meanwhile, Yens Pedersen's campaign has provided updates primarily through his Facebook group, featuring a bevy of photos and outside links. It's worth noting that much of Yens' website (including the blog portion) has been pared down or cleared since last year's leadership race, and it'll be worth watching the extent to which he ends up offering less formal commentary on the nomination race to counter McIntyre's personal focus.
Update (April 9): To his credit, Jaime Garcia has been posting plenty of policy links and commentary over the past few days since I posted the above. For my next demand, I'd like to see a musical number.
Off the top, it's worth noting that each one of the six candidates has put together at least a reasonably well-updated Facebook group in support of his or her effort - not to mention that all six candidates attended the Prince Albert provincial convention to interact with the broader party. But it's worth also pointing out some of the creative steps taken beyond that strong baseline of activity for all of the candidates. So let's go through the candidates in alphabetical order by riding to see what they've been up to.
Regina Coronation Park
The first candidate to review also looks to be winner in the creativity department so far. Jaime Garcia's campaign has left no stone unturned in getting his name out into the public, with the efforts so far ranging from billboards to custom pop bottles in addition to active Facebook, Twitter and web presences. And the fact that he's also held a fund-raising dinner hints at how he's been able to afford forms of advertising not normally expected in a nomination race. About the only question I'd have about Garcia's campaign so far is his degree of focus on candidate branding over policy - but he's certainly done well in getting his name known.
The other Regina Coronation Park candidate with a complete set of online campaign tools is Tamara Harder, who likewise features regular Facebook and Twitter updates to go with the strongest web presence among the Coronation Park candidates. (Disclaimer: As mentioned before, I'm helping out with Tamara's campaign.)
Not surprisingly, Fred Kress is somewhat behind the younger candidates in his online presence, as he's the candidate with the longest gap in online updates (having last posted on March 21). Hopefully he'll get back in the habit of posting, as his earlier updates offered some sharper and more candid commentary than most of the candidates have provided.
Finally, Tory McGregor has also gone awhile since his last update on March 23. But it's worth highlighting a few of his earlier entries which reflect the most direct effort of any of the candidates to educate voters about an area of interest (that being the Sask Party's proposed changes to environmental regulation).
Regina South
As expected, both of the candidates in Regina South have maintained a strong online presence. But the most notable new development looks to be Heather McIntyre's Coffee Talk feature, offering visitors the chance to hear conversational interviews about Heather's campaign (with more apparently to come) to accompany her regular written updates.
Meanwhile, Yens Pedersen's campaign has provided updates primarily through his Facebook group, featuring a bevy of photos and outside links. It's worth noting that much of Yens' website (including the blog portion) has been pared down or cleared since last year's leadership race, and it'll be worth watching the extent to which he ends up offering less formal commentary on the nomination race to counter McIntyre's personal focus.
Update (April 9): To his credit, Jaime Garcia has been posting plenty of policy links and commentary over the past few days since I posted the above. For my next demand, I'd like to see a musical number.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Regina Coronation Park - One More in the Mix
As noted in comments here, there's a third candidate to add to the NDP's list of contenders in Regina Coronation Park, as Fred Kress is also seeking the nomination.
Fred's name may be familiar based on his run for the federal NDP in 2008. As a late entrant in the Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre race (replacing Moe Kovatch who stepped down as the NDP's candidate), he came in a respectable second place behind Tom Lukiwski, and in fact increased the NDP's share of the vote in a riding which was targeted by a star Lib candidate in Monica Lysack.
That previous stint as a candidate gives Fred somewhat of a leg up on his competitors in terms of general election experience - and in a federal riding adjacent to Regina Coronation Park. But Fred himself notes that all three look to be strong contenders - and if he's right in suspecting that there are more candidates yet to come, then all the better for the NDP's enthusiasm level building up to the 2011 election.
Fred's name may be familiar based on his run for the federal NDP in 2008. As a late entrant in the Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre race (replacing Moe Kovatch who stepped down as the NDP's candidate), he came in a respectable second place behind Tom Lukiwski, and in fact increased the NDP's share of the vote in a riding which was targeted by a star Lib candidate in Monica Lysack.
That previous stint as a candidate gives Fred somewhat of a leg up on his competitors in terms of general election experience - and in a federal riding adjacent to Regina Coronation Park. But Fred himself notes that all three look to be strong contenders - and if he's right in suspecting that there are more candidates yet to come, then all the better for the NDP's enthusiasm level building up to the 2011 election.
Monday, July 06, 2009
On deep benches
Since I posted last week about Noah Evanchuk's intention to seek the NDP nomination for Palliser, there's been a flurry of discussion about impending nomination possibilities. So let's take a closer look at what we might see in Regina's other ridings.
To start with, it's worth noting that at least two of the three other local ridings have strong 2008 candidates who (to my knowledge at least) haven't ruled out running again. In Regina Qu'Appelle, Janice Bernier held onto the 32% share of the vote won by former MP Lorne Nystrom in the previous two elections, and won nothing but accolades as a committed and adept campaigner. And in my home riding of Wascana, Stephen Moore likewise earned nothing but praise personally in holding the NDP's share of the vote at 15% despite a fevered battle between the Libs and Cons over Ralph Goodale's riding.
I'll assume for the moment that Fred Kress won't take another shot at Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre after stepping in at the last minute for Moe Kovatch in 2008. But even there, his success in similarly holding the NDP's share of the vote - despite his starting late, and facing a Liberal star candidate who crashed and burned - should make him a strong possibility if he does want to run again.
From that starting point, the question is how much turnover there might be before the next set of nominations. And more than a few people are tossing out suggestions.
Yens Pedersen in Regina Qu'Appelle? Doubtful, as everything I've heard suggests that he'll stick to the provincial scene, and I'd expect him to want to run in either a riding with a strong prospect of success or one where coming up short won't be seen as a mark against him. (In that respect, in an ideal scenario where the NDP made the federal scene its sole priority, it might be interesting if Pedersen were to say "yes" to Wascana: would a high-profile three-way race finally push Goodale to his tipping point, or even open the door for him to be beaten without going voluntarily?)
"Meili folks" in Regina Qu'Appelle and Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre? While I don't see Buckdog's post as actually making this suggestion, it could reenergize the party's Regina base in a hurry. That said, though, I wonder whether the Meili movement might be best focused on a couple of adjacent ridings rather than spreading itself into most or all of the ridings - allowing for the Meili supporters to put in a concentrated effort in the west or south of Regina, while freeing up the NDP's existing support base to work the other two ridings.
Putting all of the above together, the ideal scenario based on the names and ideas now in play might be something along the lines of Evanchuk in Palliser, another Meili stalwart in Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, and Bernier and Moore each taking a second shot at their respective ridings. But there's every possibility that other top candidates might surface from among Dwain Lingenfelter's personal connections, or be brought in thanks to the federal party's increased organizing efforts.
The question then would be how to fit that kind of talent into an already-strong slate. Which, needless to say, is not a bad problem for the NDP to face going into the next federal campaign - and hopefully it's one that will only get more complicated next time out thanks to the addition of incumbencies to the mix.
(Edit: fixed wording.)
To start with, it's worth noting that at least two of the three other local ridings have strong 2008 candidates who (to my knowledge at least) haven't ruled out running again. In Regina Qu'Appelle, Janice Bernier held onto the 32% share of the vote won by former MP Lorne Nystrom in the previous two elections, and won nothing but accolades as a committed and adept campaigner. And in my home riding of Wascana, Stephen Moore likewise earned nothing but praise personally in holding the NDP's share of the vote at 15% despite a fevered battle between the Libs and Cons over Ralph Goodale's riding.
I'll assume for the moment that Fred Kress won't take another shot at Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre after stepping in at the last minute for Moe Kovatch in 2008. But even there, his success in similarly holding the NDP's share of the vote - despite his starting late, and facing a Liberal star candidate who crashed and burned - should make him a strong possibility if he does want to run again.
From that starting point, the question is how much turnover there might be before the next set of nominations. And more than a few people are tossing out suggestions.
Yens Pedersen in Regina Qu'Appelle? Doubtful, as everything I've heard suggests that he'll stick to the provincial scene, and I'd expect him to want to run in either a riding with a strong prospect of success or one where coming up short won't be seen as a mark against him. (In that respect, in an ideal scenario where the NDP made the federal scene its sole priority, it might be interesting if Pedersen were to say "yes" to Wascana: would a high-profile three-way race finally push Goodale to his tipping point, or even open the door for him to be beaten without going voluntarily?)
"Meili folks" in Regina Qu'Appelle and Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre? While I don't see Buckdog's post as actually making this suggestion, it could reenergize the party's Regina base in a hurry. That said, though, I wonder whether the Meili movement might be best focused on a couple of adjacent ridings rather than spreading itself into most or all of the ridings - allowing for the Meili supporters to put in a concentrated effort in the west or south of Regina, while freeing up the NDP's existing support base to work the other two ridings.
Putting all of the above together, the ideal scenario based on the names and ideas now in play might be something along the lines of Evanchuk in Palliser, another Meili stalwart in Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, and Bernier and Moore each taking a second shot at their respective ridings. But there's every possibility that other top candidates might surface from among Dwain Lingenfelter's personal connections, or be brought in thanks to the federal party's increased organizing efforts.
The question then would be how to fit that kind of talent into an already-strong slate. Which, needless to say, is not a bad problem for the NDP to face going into the next federal campaign - and hopefully it's one that will only get more complicated next time out thanks to the addition of incumbencies to the mix.
(Edit: fixed wording.)
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