Thursday, March 19, 2015

On prospects for change

The latest round of discussion about the possibility of a coalition to offer something better than the Harper Cons has taken an noteworthy turn. At this point, everybody but the Libs seems to have settled on the position that there's no real obstacle to a coalition government - and the Libs' spin machine has responded with little more than a plan to fabricate mistrust between themselves and the NDP.

But no matter how far that effort goes, the foreseeable outcomes of the next election feature a low probability of anybody holding a majority, and a strong prospect that the NDP and the Libs working together can deliver the change each of their voters would like to see.

So how far does Justin Trudeau think he'll get telling Canada that cooperation is too much hard work to be worth pursuing, and that we should instead settle for another term of hopeless Harper government?

[Edit: fixed wording.]


  1. Making no mention of May and the Greens in this discussion gives your analysis a lack of depth I'd hoped for when I clicked over to here.

    1. I can't say the post was intended to reflect a particularly deep analysis of all options for all parties.

      In any event I'd presume the Greens would be willing to participate in a coalition, and that the NDP and Libs would be willing to include them if it affects the confidence of the House. (If I tend to talk less about them, it's based on the perception that they don't need a great deal of persuading, and are less likely than the other parties to be necessary to a majority coalition.)

    2. Anonymous12:55 p.m.

      I can't see the Greens winning more than three seats this coming election, and I'm not even sure they'll pull that off. I say that as someone who might end up voting for them. So while I'd be all for them getting more seats, I don't see it happening. Because of that, I think the odds of them being needed to form coalition government to replace the Harper Cons is pretty low. The Liberals and NDP would probably have enough seats between them to make it happen on their own if the next election ends without any one party forming a majority.