Saturday, April 16, 2011

On positioning

Following up on this post, lest there be any doubt why the NDP's strong prospects in Quebec are highly important to the outcome of any election, there are a couple of points worth keeping in mind.

First, while the NDP is making a strong push for first or second place in the national party standings, it's fairly obvious that there's an interim step in exceeding the Bloc's seat total for third. That may already be in the cards based on developments elsewhere, with at least a couple of seat projections anticipating that the two parties will intersect in the high 30s or low 40s. But obviously each seat the NDP can take from the Bloc makes the task much easier.

Which leads naturally to the second point. However distasteful their attacks on sitting MPs may be, the Cons have already concluded that their strongest line of attack on any alternative government is the prospect that the Bloc's support would be required. But if the NDP can shift a substantial number of the Quebec seats in play, that will significantly improve the chances that the total number of Lib and NDP seats would reach 155 - resulting in a far better chance of the change in government the Libs claim to want.

[Edit: fixed typo.]

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