Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Canada 2011 - English Debate Wrapup

Out of sheer chance, each of Jack Layton and Michael Ignatieff was presented with a head-to-head showdown with Stephen Harper on his main theme of the campaign: Layton on health care, and Ignatieff on governance. But only Layton looks to have emerged having accomplished what he needed to - both in terms of suggesting something positive to go with challenges to the Harper Cons' style of governance, and more importantly in terms of having baited Stephen Harper into some key mistakes which will help to feed the rest of the campaign.

Ignatieff of course got the chance to have his one-on-one encounter first. But his best line on the topic (about Harper shutting down anything he couldn't control) had already been used in an earlier segment on foreign affairs, leaving little impact when it was repeated in the showdown. And perhaps more importantly, he simply didn't have much to offer other than to criticize Harper with a laundry list of abuses which Harper brushed off.

And it's that lack of a response that looks most crucial in defining the rest of the campaign as between the Libs and Cons.

It might have been different if he'd had anything at all to put forward by way of alternative suggestions. But in order make any headway without serving up much of substance for himself, Ignatieff at least had to get Harper to demonstrate some recognition that his stay in office has given rise to at least some issues of governance worth dealing with.

Needless to say, Harper didn't do anything of the sort, choosing instead to retreat into talking points without acknowledging any of the examples recited by Ignatieff. And after running through the list a second time (rather than asking for direct responses on particular issues which may have been more difficult to avoid), Ignatieff let the conversation turn elsewhere - leaving neither any lasting dents in Harper's facade, nor any impression of having much idea what he'd offer instead.

In contrast, Layton managed to use his time in the health care debate to set out strong distinctions between the NDP and the other national parties - both in its commitment to keeping funding going in the long run, and in its plan to make improvements before the 2014 round of negotiations with the provinces.

Perhaps more surprisingly, though, Layton also got Harper to show a few more cards than he probably wanted to. Rather than shying away from the issue of privatization, Layton challenged Harper directly. And Harper allowed that he sees no problem whatsoever with "alternative delivery mechanisms" - leaving himself vulnerable on the question of what changes he's prepared to endorse while funding the provinces, and how those figure to alter a system that serves as a point of pride for Canadians.

(Hint: Tim Horton's as "alternative delivery mechanism" would have been a great issue for the NDP even before its first ad of the campaign featured that very example.)

Of course, it remains to be seen what effect the debate will have on the course of the campaign. But Layton seems to have been able to get much further in positioning himself as a legitimate contender than Ignatieff did in trying to close the door on the other opposition parties. And if the Libs don't back down from their pretense to being the lone alternative, tonight may have laid the groundwork for the NDP to win a direct challenge to that title.

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