The one closed window

I've posted before as to why any election before the fixed date in 2012 will figure to happen only as a result of the Cons' desire to have one. But let's supplement the point somewhat by noting that there is one window in 2011 where the Cons figure to be highly unlikely to want to precipitate an election - and it has nothing at all to do with the series of provincial elections scheduled for the fall.

Instead, I'd look to the schedule for the 2011 census for a hint as to when we can almost entirely rule out a trip to the polls.

After all, while the Cons managed to shift the discussion away from their census vandalism by the end of 2010, I don't think there's much room for dispute that it turned out to be a massive loser for them to the extent it consumed any substantial part of Canada's political discussion. And constant reminders of problems ranging from inflated costs to the destruction of data might provide exactly the kind of subtle push that could make all the difference in an election fought over a narrow band of swing voters. So I can't see the Cons wanting to have a campaign take place while census forms are being distributed and answers being collected from the general public.

That may push them to seek an election early this spring (to make sure it's over with by the start of the May 2 collection period) if they're going to pursue one at all at the start of 2011. And it should serve as reason to figure that if we make it into May without a campaign, we can be relatively confident that nothing will happen until the fall.

Of course, the above is subject to some other radical shift in party support that allows the Cons to overlook the dangers of superimposing an election campaign over an unavoidable public reminder of a bad issue for them. But I'd file it away for future reference in trying to decipher when we might see a trip to the polls - and when we can mostly rule out the possibility.