On timelines

There's been plenty of justified outrage over the Cons' suggestion that their decision to hire Justice Iacobucci should buy them 18 months of unaccountability for their Afghanistan torture cover-up. But it's worth taking a closer look at why that particular timeline is being suggested.

The first and most obvious reason why the Cons would want the 18-month number floating around is the perception that an election is likely at some point in the next year or so. In effect, the result of hiring Iacobucci would then be to completely cloud the issue for the next federal election campaign.

But what if the anticipated election doesn't come in the meantime? That's where the endpoint of the Cons' timeline becomes particularly significant: by the Cons' reckoning, the report would be completed around September 2011, just a few months before the nominal end date for Canada's combat mission in Afghanistan. And it will be easy enough for the Cons to hide behind the troops and say that regardless of the outcome of the report, we should wait until after withdrawal from Afghanistan to allow any of the documents to be seen.

That makes for a big enough problem on its own. But it gets worse when one considers that it's not too late for Harper to decide to extend the combat mission - which he'd have a greater incentive to do if any of the opposition parties accept the message that it's reasonable to tie the release of documents to our departure from Afghanistan. So if the Cons are able to sell the message that the documents can't be released until after we're out of the combat role, then they could actually increase the likelihood that we'll be in that role much longer - while also laying the groundwork to keep on suppressing the truth for years to come.

So what are the odds of that happening? It's easy enough for now to presume that the 2011 end date will stick, as even the Cons aren't actively talking about an extension these days. But if the Libs in particular are weak enough in the meantime to allow themselves to be strongarmed on the Cons' confidence motions, it won't be much surprise if Harper can also push them into agreeing to another extension. And even if not, there's no official mechanism to keep Harper from announcing an extention unilaterally (which he was fully prepared to do in 2006).

Now, the extension scenario is far from being one of the main reasons why the opposition should reject the Cons' efforts to hide behind Iacobucci. But it does hint at the fact that the consequences of allowing the Cons to run roughshod over parliamentary democracy can be far-reaching - which should make for an added incentive for the opposition to take a stand in enforcing its production order.