Thursday, March 18, 2010

On crowded fields

Sean breaks the news that there's another entrant in an increasingly-crowded group of candidates in Saskatoon-Humboldt, as Saskatoon Councillor Darren Hill will be seeking the federal Libs' nomination to challenge Brad Trost, Denise Kouri and Jim Pankiw.

For those wondering how Hill's decision to join the race will affect the NDP's chances of winning, keep in mind that the NDP's share of the vote in the riding has regularly been between 26% and 32% - even as the number of viable candidates has varied from two to four, and the Cons' share of the vote has ranged from 27% to 54%. So when the NDP has come closest to winning, it's been the result of extensive vote splitting.

Now, with Hill apparently cutting into the Cons' support from the left while Pankiw pursues it from the right, Trost figures to be in a world of trouble trying to hold onto his vote. And the NDP still looks to have the best chance of taking advantage of that opening.

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