A reality check

It's been fascinating to watch a single comment expressing nothing more than unsourced gossip turn into a two-day media story. But now that the madness is over with, let's note why any deal involving NDP support for the Cons is highly unlikely - and why the Libs' efforts to sell the PR referendum story need to be taken with a heavy grain of salt.

To start with, I'll expand on one of the points that I made when the NDP's new tone emerged this week. Simply put, the new line is solely about working within the time frame which the Libs have already imposed to try to get something positive done. That doesn't involve any retreat from the position that the Harper government is causing nothing but harm - but instead means recognizing that there may not be any confidence votes over the next 10 weeks, and that on any that do come up they can't rely on the Libs to take a stand.

Of course, it's in the Libs' interest to try to pretend otherwise in order to defuse what they surely know makes for a powerful criticism. Which is why they're currently shrieking at anyone who'll listen that Layton has somehow already agreed to prop up the Cons merely by declaring his intention to try to work with all parties.

But the best long-term move for the NDP is to make their new cooperative message an add-on to their existing "real opposition" narrative, not to scrap a year and a half worth of public messaging. Unless...

In theory, one can make a case that if the NDP would be well served if it could count on PR being implemented out of a deal with the Cons, largely for the reasons set out by Robert Silver. But there doesn't seem to be a way to get there from here which doesn't involve unacceptable risk.

After all, a citizens' assembly and referendum process would require at least many months of preparation, and more likely a year or more. Which means that if it tied support for the Cons to PR, the NDP would be committing to vote for at least as much of the Cons' reactionary agenda as the Libs have already passed.

But the NDP wouldn't have any way to count on the Cons holding up their end of the bargain. We already know Harper isn't shy about calling an election in the face of his own legislation to the contrary - and it would be foolhardy to rely on him not to do the same again just as a referendum process was nearly complete.

What's more, with both the Libs and Bloc having shown their willingness to prop up the Cons in the past, Harper could easily back out of any agreement on PR and look to them to sustain his government if he can get a better deal. And considering that a majority-focused Ignatieff and a regionally-based Bloc could both conclude they'd be at least temporarily worse off under a PR system, it's entirely likely that one or the other would make Harper an offer he couldn't refuse to end the process.

In contrast, changes to EI as proposed by Layton would require passing only a single bill, not propping up the Cons on any hostile confidence motions - which would fit well within the range of what the NDP can plausibly put on the table without damaging its existing messages. And presumably there are plenty more policy ideas which Layton can present along the same lines - maybe including PR as a matter of immediate implementation rather than a referendum, though the odds of the Cons accepting that are minimal.

But a referendum process would leave far too much to chance to justify signing on to back Harper's government. So the NDP is best off making a push for PR in a future, more friendly Parliament - rather than one where Deceivin' Stephen can so easily send the idea off the rails.