Sunday, April 26, 2009

Deb Higgins Candidate Checkpoint - The Comeback

The Candidate

On paper, Deb Higgins figured to start the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race solidly in second place. While she couldn't match Dwain Lingenfelter's head start, she was the only other candidate to have caucus endorsers from the beginning. And all expectations were that the rest of her campaign would similarly be near the head of the pack.

But as the weeks went by, it seemed like Higgins' campaign was in hibernation. Her initial web page was severely lacking in both design and content, and for at least a couple of days it was replaced with error messages or placeholders. And she didn't unveil much by way of endorsements or policies for at least a month after entering the race, leading to some question about how seriously she was taking the leadership campaign.

While it took some time, though, Higgins has since worked her way back toward the front of the pack. And indeed from the chances I've seen to see the leaders, I've reached the surprising conclusion that the one contender with recent cabinet experience - who on paper should have had plenty of strengths to start with but proportionally less ability to improve - has actually done the most to boost her campaign and her standing over the last month-plus. Having taken awhile to start saying anything of substance in the campaign, Higgins didn't take a back seat to anybody in her policy strength at the Regina leaders' debate in particular.

The Strategy

But where does Higgins go from here? I've noted a couple of possible themes for her campaign going forward. First and foremost, she needs to broaden her support beyond the present caucus and her strong riding - and organized labour presents the most obvious opportunity for her to add followers to help persuade undecided members over the next month and a half.

Then there's her Link-tweaking strategy, which seems like it may have missed the mark in at least one respect. While Higgins may well have hoped to turn the race into a one-on-one confrontation between the two putative frontrunners, Lingenfelter has preferred to avoid any direct confrontation - which makes for a logical response, since it isn't in his interest to accept his weaknesses as the battleground for the contest.

That said, Higgins still figures to be able to get at least some more mileage out of a similar strategy. Even if Lingenfelter doesn't respond directly, Higgins can still see some obvious benefit in raising doubts about him. And she'll surely be happy if she can turn the race into the two-person battle at the top which it once figured to be.

The Result

Despite her slow start to the race, Higgins has a fairly clear potential path to victory. But it depends on her finding the right balance between a couple of conflicting goals.

On the one hand, she needs to dampen Lingenfelter's support enough to make sure that he doesn't win on the first ballot. Which in principle should mean that she'd be relatively happy to see strong showings by the other two candidates in the race, while having little reason to reinforce any of Lingenfelter's messages.

But the ascent of Ryan Meili has raised another problem for Higgins. As a result of the momentum that he was able to build while Higgins's campaign was largely silent, there looks to be a serious possibility that Higgins could finish behind Meili on an early ballot. And that's particularly so if Yens Pedersen gets eliminated on the first ballot and throws his support to the other youth/renewal candidate on the second.

Which means that Higgins needs the help of Meili and Pedersen to hold Lingenfelter short of a majority on the first ballot, while needing to simultaneously ensure that their combined support doesn't exceed her own. As a result, she'll have to guess just right as to how to weigh an experience-based message that might reinforce Lingenfelter's strengths and increase the risk of a first-ballot romp against a renewal-based one that undercuts Link and boosts the younger candidates.

Mind you, if Higgins can thread that needle to get to a final ballot against Lingenfelter, then she probably is the challenger best positioned to sweep the support of the candidates below her.

After all, it's relatively plausible that some Higgins supporters who value her experience and past involvement - or whose primary loyalty is based on their experience with her personally rather than the principles at play in the race - might list Lingenfelter as a second choice. In contrast, there figure to be few if any reasons why a member would support Meili or Pedersen first that would suggest a final-ballot vote for Lingenfelter over Higgins.

So Higgins still has a path to victory from here. But one has to wonder how many regrets there are in her camp about the fact that her initial disadvantages have made the terrain far less certain.

Edit: added label.

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