The war in the making

From the "proving that things can always get worse" department, Iraq's political scene gave signs of becoming more fractured than ever today:

President Jalal Talabani has accused the Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance, which holds the majority in parliament, of monopolizing power in the government and refusing to move ahead on a key issue for Kurds, the resettlement of Kurds in the northern city of Kirkuk.

“The time has come for the United Iraqi Alliance and the Kurdistan coalition to study Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari's stepping aside from his post,” said Azad Jundiyani, a spokesman for Mr. Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan...

Mr. Jundiyani would not say whether the Kurds would withdraw from the government if the Shiite alliance does not back them in removing Mr. al-Jaafari. Mr. Talibani has made indirect threats to withdraw from the coalition if Kurdish demands are not met.

Given that the movements led by Talabani and al-Jaafari have been the two that have effectively held the Iraqi government together to date, this can't be anything but a signal that the chaos has only just begun. As long as those two factions were working toward substantially the same goals, the most likely outcome seemed to be a civil war pitting the Sunnis against the rest of Iraq - which would be bloody, but at least relatively capable of some definitive resolution.

Now, the Kurdish call to remove Shiites from power seems all too likely to be answered in kind. And if the dispute moves from the top political leaders to the general population, then an ensuing civil war seems all too likely to involve all three groups fighting against each other. Which is a battle that nobody can realistically expect to win.