On echoes

Plenty of commentators have pointed out the symmetry between this year's election and that of 2008 in terms of low voter turnout and general dissatisfaction with the outcome on the part of all parties. But it's worth noting the similarities between the two campaigns and their aftermath on the part of the NDP in particular.

2008 was treated as a golden opportunity for Jack Layton and the NDP to improve their standing. But even with the most popular leader among the national parties, a well-run campaign, and seemingly uninspiring or downright self-destructive competitors, the NDP ended up with...a small increase in the percentage of the popular vote due to declining overall turnout; a slightly improved seat count which fell far short of the party's number of targeted ridings and left it in fourth place in the Parliamentary standings; and punditry which questioned Layton's strategy of running for the position of Prime Minister, and asked whether he might have hit his ceiling as the party's leader. 

Sound familiar?

Needless to say, it was for the best that Layton was able to continue applying his experience and popularity to the cause of building the NDP for another election cycle. And any attempt to treat the replacement of a generally popular and able leader as a cure-all is as misguided now as it would have been in 2008. 

Indeed, the next election cycle may well match 2011 as one in which a leader with strong recognition and approval is a particularly potent force. 

The Cons look to be deciding whether or not to push Erin O'Toole out the door for making even token efforts toward moderation. And any review process and leadership campaign on their end raises a real possibility of schisms within the party, an extreme shift to the right which could disqualify them as a perceived alternative government, or the Cons' version of Michael Ignatieff's saviour complex and lack of self-awareness. 

Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau's negative impressions figure to be thoroughly baked in at this point, meaning that voters may be primed for change by the next (hopefully non-pandemic) election. Yet unlike some commentators, I'd have to see it as unlikely that he'd be pushed without wanting to leave - or that he'll choose to leave government without pursing another shot at a majority as long as there's any hope of winning one. 

To be clear, there's plenty the NDP needs to reckon with as a result of the campaign. Among others, those include the need for clearer and more ambitious policy (an area where I'll again point out COVID response as an obvious lost opportunity), as well as concerns being raised about a centralized campaign which spent plenty in the pursuit of a relatively small number of ridings, yet had difficulty converting those into seats. 

But the fact that there's room to learn lessons doesn't mean it's time to throw out the work the NDP has already done. And it shouldn't come as any surprise if the path of slow progress leading to a breakthrough is one the NDP can navigate again. 

[Edit: fixed typo.]

#Elxn44 Roundup

News and notes from the aftermath of Canada's federal election.

- Christo Aivalis is the latest to point out that nobody emerged from the election as a winner. And John Packer writes that there's an ever-stronger case for a coalition government given the low level of popular support for the party with a plurality of seats. 

- Katrina Miller notes that the idea of taxing the rich isn't about to disappear anytime soon, and that it makes sense for it to be one of the outcomes of Monday's election. 

- Karl Nerenberg writes about the multiple barriers to voting which limited turnout and affected the fairness of the election. And Ole Hendrickson argues that the low turnout also serves as evidence of discontent with an electoral system which fails to reflect the will of voters. 

- Pam Palmater highlights why we need to be worried about the PPC's increased number of votes as an indication of a dangerous far-right movement. 

- Finally, Nia Williams writes about the demand by Canadian fossil fuel workers to see the Libs make good on the promise of retraining as part of a just transition. 

Thursday Morning Links

This and that for your Thursday reading.

- The Institut economique Molinari studies how COVID Zero strategies have not only kept populations healthier, but helped to preserve higher levels of freedom than plans which instead allow for avoidable community transmission. And Andrew Conway-Harris et al. find (PDF) that air filtration is extremely effective at removing COVID-19 and other airborne diseases from hospital wards. 

- Which is to say that responsible governments should be able to minimize the continued spread of COVID. But instead, Jason Warick reports on the repurposing of Saskatchewan health care providers to brace against an avoidable fourth wave, while Taz Dhaliwal highlights the rightly outraged response of doctors now being told by Scott Moe that they bear responsibility for not sufficiently countering his constant minimization of the pandemic. And Zak Vescera reports on the ballooning number of COVID cases in Saskatchewan's under-19 population. 

- Geoffrey Morgan reports on the growing concern that the massive liabilities associated with a declining oil patch will be dumped onto governments and landowners as oil companies shed idle wells. And Niciolas Van Praet reports on the attempt by fossil fuel companies to use trade agreements to prevent any transition away from new production to help avert climate disaster. 

- Michael Sean Winters discusses how more progressive taxes on the rich represent both a popular step and a smart policy choice. And Chris Dite interviews Marie Sneve Martinussen and Seher Aydar about the success of Norway's Red Party in turning class messaging into both electoral and social change. 

- Finally, Sean Isaacs writes about the encroachment of financialization on nearly every aspect of our lives, and the resulting increase in capital's control over people. And Karin Larsen reports on the underhanded tactics of one prominent Vancouver landlord in seeking to evade rent controls by setting up an artificial "utility provider" which would not be subject to any caps (while still using the threat of eviction to force the payment of its bills). 

Wednesday Morning Links

 Miscellaneous material for your mid-week reading.

- Julian Borger reports on UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres' call to address major inequities, including in climate action and vaccine distribution. And Stephanie Nolen and Sheryl Gay Stolberg report on the pressure rightly being applied to the Biden administration to open up access to vaccine production so that pandemic suppression can take precedence over pharmaceutical profiteering.  

- Meanwhile, Sareth Peiris writes that the immediate effect of the public health measures delayed so long by Scott Moe serves only to show that action should have been taken far sooner. Zak Vescera reports that the list of crises bubbling up in Saskatchewan's health care system includes an imminent shortage of COVID-19 medication. And Colleen Silverthorn reports on the lengthy list of recent outbreaks in Saskatchewan long-term care homes, while Richard Adams discusses the massive spread within schools in the UK. 

- Matt Elliott laments Toronto's choice to spend $2 million to forcibly eject dozens of homeless people from parks rather than using its resources to actually ensure housing is available. 

- Finally, David Moscrop writes that the latest federal election is just the latest example of the failings of a political system designed for two parties when voters demand multiple options. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

Assorted reactions to a federal election which changed so little.

- The Canadian Labour Congress points out that we can't afford to be stuck with the status quo when there's an opportunity for parties to chart a more equitable and sustainable course for Canada. And Aaron Wherry wonders how the federal parties will adapt to another apparent run of minority Parliaments by working on systemic cooperation rather than turning every confidence vote into a game of chicken, while Alex Marland points out the range of outcomes in historical minority governments from generational change to complete gridlock. 

- Seth Klein writes that the new Parliament will hold Canada's climate future in its hands. And Morgan Sharp argues that young voters will be looking for the parties to work together on that front, while Vijay Tupper makes the case that Jagmeet Singh needs to serve to counterbalance the influence of the fossil fuel sector. 

- Justin Ling writes that the main factors driving the outcome proved to be fatigue and resignation. Cameron Holmstrom writes that there were ultimately no winners among Canada's political parties.  

- Meanwhile, PressProgress reports on the problems with ballot box access in a pandemic election, including unconscionably long lines in some areas and a complete lack of polls in others. 

- Finally, Armine Yalnizyan offers a reminder that the pandemic's disproportionate impact on women is far from over - and that countering its effects needs to be another top priority in the next Parliament.

Tuesday Night Cat Blogging

Alert cats.

 

Tuesday Morning Links

This and that for your Tuesday reading.

- Alexander Quon reports on Alexander Wong's call for far more public health measures to alleviate COVID's unmanageable strain on Saskatchewan's health care system. And Libby Giesbrecht reports on the conditions in emergency rooms which are seeing patients wait for days (requiring the attention of paramedics the entire time) before being admitted.  

- Meanwhile, Andrea Germanos writes that the failure of rich countries to provide vaccines to less-wealthy ones is resulting both in gross inequality in vaccine access, and far more dangerous outcomes for everybody. 

- Alex Hemingway discusses the need for progress on sick leave in British Columbia, as well as the danger that corporate influence will once again leave workers to fend for themselves. And Charles Smith discusses what the Co-op refinery lockout means for the wider labour movement. 

- Finally, Peter McCartney offers some important suggestions as to what the next federal government can do to step up the fight against a climate breakdown - though there's little reason for optimism given the Libs' smug determination to avoid doing anything that doesn't fit into immediate economic models. 

Monday Afternoon Links

Miscellaneous material to start your week.

- Doug Cuthand discusses how everybody is worse off as a result of the combination of government negligence and individual vaccine hesitancy. And Liam Harrap tells the story of a cancer patient struggling to get access to needed care due to the pandemic which has been allowed to burn out of control. 

- Meanwhile, Amanda Sealy reports on the prospect of vaccines being available for ages 5-11 within a matter of weeks - making it all the more galling that conservative governments have facilitated a fourth wave by eliminating public health rules too soon then taking too long to revisit their talking points.  

- Jonathan Tirone discusses how the "locked-in" emissions even from existing refineries will lead to climate catastrophe if they're spewed out as planned.

- Rosie Collington and Mariana Mazzucato comment on the disastrous results of replacing knowledgeable and effective government with reliance on expensive and self-interested corporate consultants. 

- Finally, Owen Jones comments on the widespread dissatisfaction with capitalism among young adults who see their futures being mortgaged for the sake of making the obscenely rich even wealthier. 

#Elxn44 E-Day Links

News and notes as Canada's federal election draws to a close.

- David Moscrop discusses how a campaign nobody wanted is leaning toward grudging continuation of the status quo which the Libs tried to discard. And Ryan Maloney reports on the technical problems arising largely out of a snap pandemic election. 

- The Star offers its endorsement - which predictably supports the Libs, but recognizes both the contribution the NDP has made in responding to the pandemic so far and the need for it to be strengthened in pushing for progressive policy going forward. And Alex Ballingall reports on Jagmeet Singh's pursuit of tax fairness as the key to NDP support once voters have had our say. 

- PressProgress reports on the choice of multiple Con MPs to use a petition service which sends signatories' data to be used by far-right groups in Europe. And Caroline Orr writes about the connection between anti-vaxxers and the far-right PPC - and how the election doesn't figure to be the end of the story. 

- Meanwhile, Dave Cournoyer discusses Alberta's impact on the election - which now figures to be based primarily on the motivation of voters across Canada to avoid a Kenney-style catastrophe. 

- Finally, Olamide Olaniyan writes that systemic racism should be a major election issue - though it's worth noting that at least one party does actually take it seriously from a policy standpoint. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Victoria Nicolau reports on the Native Women's Association of Canada's campaign scorecard, showing the NDP well ahead of other parties in addressing the issues facing Indigenous women. And Omayra Issa and Theresa Kliem talk to young Indigenous people in Saskatchewan about what they want to see - and how the establishment parties are falling short.

- Katrina Miller and Jamie Kirkpatrick discuss how the Cons' refusal to even countenance a necessary transition to a clean economy stands to endanger the future of young Canadians both in polluting their planet and denying them a place in the global economy as it develops. 

- Toby Sanger writes that the Cons' economic plans predictably involve taking services away from people who need them in order to hand money to those who already have more than enough. And Patrick Brethour notes that the Libs' tenure in office has fallen short of Justin Trudeau's promises of economic growth.

- Catharine Tunney discusses why it may take several days to learn conclusive results from tomorrow's election. And John Brewin explores what we might expect in the Parliamentary session to follow.

- Finally, Nancy MacDonald examines what's new in the NDP's campaign. And Christian Paas-Lang wonders whether the 10th anniversary of the first Orange Wave in Quebec might see a resurgence - in part due to some familiar faces who have returned to the political fray.

Saturday Afternoon Links

Assorted content for your weekend reading.

- Andrew Nikiforuk writes that it's long past time for Jason Kenney to resign as utterly unfit for public office. The Globe and Mail's editorial board discusses how the UCP made Alberta's COVID-19 situation far worse by trying to deny it, while Alika Lafontaine comments on the hubris which has put health care systems in the position of failing to treat the people who most need it. Russell Wangersky writes that vaccinations alone were never going to be sufficient to avoid Saskatchewan's getting swamped by the fourth wave, while Zak Vescera looks at how the province has in fact succumbed even as Scott Moe continues to deny any responsibility. 

- Tom Bawden writes about the developing body of knowledge around long COVID - and the severe impacts on people's lives long after government statistics would have declared them recovered. And Sara Birlios asks how we can meaningfully mourn our dead while accepting political and economic structures which constantly devalue human life.

- Richard Murphy writes that the system underpinning our current economic model is obviously unsustainable, even as entrenched forces try to prevent any transition. And Jim Catano writes about how to process the prospect of the end of the world as we know it.

- Finally, Seth Klein discusses the need to address inequality and climate change together, rather than pretending it's possible (or worse yet, somehow desirable) to meaningfully address one without the other. And Angela Carter and others make the case for Newfoundland and Labrador to actually work on a just transition, rather than continuing to push fossil fuel development which our living environment can't afford.

#Elxn44 Roundup

News and notes from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Cam Fenton discusses how "strategic" votes for the Libs in the name of climate change figure to be anything but, while David Gray-Donald bluntly describes the Libs' offering as "denialist trash". Maya Menezes examines what we should be looking for in a climate platform, while Simon Donner discusses the need for any climate policy to fit with long-term goals. And Ben Simoni and Melissa Lavery discuss how Canada (and indeed the world) would benefit from a youth climate corps.

- Robert Hiltz writes that Erin O'Toole's mask has come off in the course of the election campaign, while Paul Willcocks discusses how O'Toole has campaigned as a trickster for lack of any ability to appeal to both his party's base and any expanded voter universe. Marieke Walsh reports on the refusal of the vast majority of Con candidates to say whether they've been vaccinated in the midst of a pandemic. And PressProgress exposes Con candidate Les Jickling's support for making health care about profit rather than patient needs. 

- Morna Ballantyne highlights how the Cons' tax baubles can't be equated with a plan to actually make child care available. And Paul Dechene similarly notes that the Cons plan to starve municipalities of desperately-needed infrastructure funding.

- On that front, Natasha Bulowski reports on the priority placed on housing by Canada's municipalities. And Erica Ifill discusses how the Libs' housing schemes have been gimmicky political diversions rather than effective plans to ensure people have the homes they need.

- Finally, Charlie Smith writes about the Robin Hood themes being presented by Jagmeet Singh in contrasting the NDP against the protectors of the wealthy.

Musical interlude

Sigrid - Mirror

Friday Afternoon Links

Assorted content to end your week.

- Wallis Snowdon reports on what critical-care triage caused by a combination of COVID-19 and mismanagement will mean in Alberta's ICUs (at a time when Saskatchewan is facing the same). Jason Warick highlights how Saskatchewan's Chief Medical Health Officer has far more power to protect public health than has been exercised in the course of the COVID pandemic. And Murray Mandryk discusses Scott Moe's embarrassingly delayed and weak reaction to the building fourth wave - though as always it's worth pointing out how Moe has been coddled in his reckless endangerment of the public.

- Meanwhile, Tim Harford offers his take that a key next step in encouraging vaccine uptake is to present a positive view of the number of people already vaccinated. But it's also worth noting that the prospect of a vaccine passport looks to have done far more to boost vaccinations than any amount of mere imploring. 

- Phil Tank writes that Saskatoon is far past the point of being able to humour COVID conspiracy theorists. And Nam Kiwanuka points out how only some, particularly privileged people are granted space to be angry, even as people with genuine complaints face systemic state repression in trying to be heard. 

- Finally, Shawn Gude discusses different conceptions of freedom, and notes that a system designed to allow a few people to amass sickening amounts of wealth inevitably limits the freedom of "non-domination" of many people who would have a larger range of options if they enjoyed greater material equality. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- D.T. Cochrane reviews the parties' platforms and finds the NDP's to be both the most progressive and the most fiscally responsible. And Martin Lukacs and Ben Cuthbert examine the voting records of the Libs and the Cons - finding a regular pattern of the two voting together to block progressive priorities. 

- John Woodside reports on the Climate Action Tracker's conclusion that the Trudeau Libs' climate policies rate as "highly insufficient" to avert climate breakdown.  

- PressProgress continues to offer plenty of important insight into Erin O'Toole and his party - this time pointing out both O'Toole's eagerness to make common cause with health care privatizers, and Brampton South candidate Ramandeep Brar's belief in an entitlement to silence a former worker who dared to raise issues of wage theft and abusive working conditions. 

- Meanwhile, Haseena Manek writes about Angella MacEwen's work to not only win a seat for herself, but build progressive capacity in Ottawa. 

- Finally, Joe Roberts traces the rise of the PPC to anger among Canadians, while noting the glaring need to ensure that people who recognize a need for change perceive a viable left-wing alternative to the politics of bigotry and hate. 

Thursday Morning Links

This and that for your Thursday reading.

- Jason Markusoff writes about the human cost of Jason Kenney's false claim that the COVID-19 pandemic was over. Phil Tank points out that Scott Moe is now without question the most negligent premier in the country when it comes to public health protections. And Adam Hunter reports on the call from Alexander Wong and other experts to at least follow Manitoba's path in limiting the spread of the Delta variant, while Guy Quenneville talks to Steven Lewis about the Moe government's insistence on pushing privatization rather than paying attention to what's worked in responding to COVID. 

- Richard Hine discusses the emerging reality of death by anti-vaxxers in the U.S. - which is of course being matched in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Peter Hotez points out how anti-vaxx messaging is spreading in Canada. And Jenny Deam reports on the story of a 12-year-old whose appendix burst while he was stuck waiting in an emergency room as a stark example of how COVID's strain on health care puts everybody at risk. 

- Daniel Quiggin et al. study the compounding risks of failing to avert a climate breakdown by transitioning away from an economy which relies on carbon pollution. 

- Finally, Noah Lanard and Jacob Rosenberg write about some of the indignities bad bosses have inflicted on their employees - and the steps workers have taken to fight back. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

News and notes from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Alex Hemingway writes about the need to tax the rich far beyond even the "unlimited zeal" reflected in the NDP's modest plans to secure additional revenue. And David Moscrop makes the case for far more discussion of systemic change in who owns and makes decisions about the forces that shape our lives. 

- Martin Olzynski and Sharon Mascher examine the environmental policies on offer. Ali Raza points out the need for more detailed and ambitious plans to wind down fossil fuel production in the wake of the global recognition that oil and gas will need to stay in the ground. But Brian Hill reports on the declaration by the Lib Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson's declaration that the TransMountain pipeline his government plans to build could keep shipping exported oil until 2060 or later. And Bob Weber reports that the Cons are going so far as to refuse to rule out the UCP's plans for new coal mining in the Rocky Mountains. 

- Meanwhile, Anjali Appadurai discusses the importance of electing climate champions. And Libby Davies interviews Tria Donaldson about her plans to ensure that climate change and other crucial issues are dealt with immediately rather than being kicked down the road. 

- PressProgress offers introductions to Con candidates who have labeled Black Lives Matter a terrorist group and tried to force conservative beliefs on elementary-school children.  

- Finally, Raisa Patel reports on the NDP's efforts to reach new voters and ridings based on the belief that people can be persuaded to vote for something better. 

On politicization

There have been a couple of indications as to how Alberta's refusal to take basic health precautions in the face of COVID's fourth wave (and in all likelihood Saskatchewan's as well) can be traced to a willingness to govern based on the O'Toole Cons' campaign strategy rather than the health and well-being of citizens. But as long as we know Kenney is treating the issue solely as one of politics, there are a couple of implications worth raising. 

The first is that it's wrong to say that O'Toole is merely as bad as Kenney and other premiers in their pandemic response. Rather, O'Toole has been relying on them to be worse than they might have been otherwise if a refusal to protect public health didn't fit his political interests. And now, we've managed to reach the point where his valuation of the public interest is below even Kenney's.

But the second is that there may be another political factor at play. The UCP has been considering its options for most of this week. And if it had acted quickly, there would still have been time for people to apply for special ballots - allowing them to vote by mail, or at relatively quiet and low-traffic returning offices.

The deadline to apply for a special ballot expired on September 14. The UCP made the announcement of a state of emergency on September 15. 

As a result, while Kenney's announcement yesterday may not have fit perfectly with the Cons' campaign plans, it might nonetheless have fit with a general desire to distort election results toward the right. 

O'Toole's main concern is surely that a vaccine mandate and health rules will drive voters to the PPC - and anybody starting from a position of pandemic denial is unlikely to hesitate about venturing out to vote. But if there's a risk of also affecting voters who care about responsible pandemic management, they'll face conflicting forces: while they may be less inclined to accept the Cons as good-faith actors, they'll also be less likely to vote at all. 

That might be slightly worse than a wash for O'Toole in the short term, but it's entirely compatible with the interests of the UCP and its movement allies who want to be able to point to some more extreme option as an excuse for their own refusal to listen to anybody to the left of Attila the Hun. And we'll have every reason for suspicion the timing was aimed at that effort if we see Kenney, Scott Moe and their apologists point to PPC results as a driving force in their own future actions. 

Wednesday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material for your mid-week reading.

- Jill Filipovic discusses how the mounting toll in human lives and health from COVID should leave no room for controversy about modest responses such as vaccine mandates. Andre Picard writes that there's no prospect of moving from a pandemic to an endemic state without active intervention to control the spread that's now being allowed to run wild. And in case there's any doubt that vaccinated people have plenty to lose from avoidable community transmission, Will Stone writes about the realities of even a mild "breakthrough" case of COVID. 

- Meanwhile, James Keller and Carrie Tait report on warnings from Alberta's doctors about the imminent collapse of their health care system, while Leyland Cecco connects that reality to Jason Kenney's deliberate choice not to apply public health restrictions. 

- Jillian Horton expresses rightful frustration at "kindness gaslighting" intended to allow for bad actors to engage in wanton destruction in the name of kindness and civility.  

- Brady Dennis and Adam Taylor report on new polling showing strong recognition of the need to combat a climate breakdown through global action. And it's well worth noting that the resulting demand that the world's largest economies take the lead in that effort has major consequences for any plan to export fossil fuels to the U.S. and China for any sustained period of time. 

- Finally, Sara Mojtehedzadeh and Omar Mosleh report on the certification application at Amazon's Nisku warehouse which may create an important precedent for the prospects of bringing collective bargaining to new types of jobs. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Christo Aivalis discusses Jagmeet Singh's much-needed willingness to take on the power of the rich to fight for a country that works for everybody. And Shelly Hagan writes about the resulting possibility of greater social contributions being required of those who can most afford to make them.  

- In contrast, Luke Savage highlights how Justin Trudeau's promises - particularly those aimed at progressive voters - are made to be broken. And the Centre for Canadian Progress offers (PDF) takes a look at the options for left-oriented voters on the key priorities of housing, climate change and pharmacare. 

- Richard Saillant reviews the parties' housing policies and finds the NDP's to be the one best suited to meeting the needs of people in precarious situations. And Richard Cuthbertson and Alaina Luck report that the Libs' idea of an "affordable housing" plan is to provide private developers with preferential terms to build units which cost up to double double the average rent within a community. 

- Meanwhile, Jackie Brown, Amit Arya and Andrew Longhurst discuss how to reach the NDP's goal of ensuring that long-term care homes are focused on care rather than profit. 

- Finally, David Akin examines the state of the race and concludes that we're likely headed for another minority Parliament.