Following up on this post, let's look at a few what-ifs from the NDP's leadership campaign in retrospect - this time wondering how the outcome might have changed from the perspective of the candidates based on choices made during the course of the race. And it's fairly easy to narrow down the list based on those whose campaigns ran about as smoothly as could be expected (Niki Ashton, plus Peggy Nash minus her convention presentation), those who figure to have achieved all they could realistically have hoped for (Martin Singh) and the actual winner (Thomas Mulcair).
Having pared down the list to that extent, here are a few open questions as to how the campaign might have turned out differently...
What if Brian Topp had released full polling data of his own in response to Paul Dewar's poll release?
Again, one of the hazards for those of us trying to interpret the race from the outside was a lack of reliable information about the candidates' actual support levels. And as a result, Dewar's choice to go public with his full polling results had a disproportionate impact in shaping the balance of the campaign.
But Topp could have met transparency with transparency. If indeed he had data showing himself all alone in second place, then he might have avoided the perception of a tightly-bunched pack of challengers to Mulcair by releasing the underlying data in full - which would figure to have set public impressions at worst near the midpoint between the publicly-released polls (including Mulcair's released in the wake of Dewar's). And that in turn would have allowed him to run as a stronger challenger to Mulcair, rather than one of a bunch of candidates whose positioning was uncertain.
Mind you, Topp may instead have decided that he didn't want to be wasting time comparing himself to Dewar in any event, and worried that responding to Dewar's numbers would only give them more attention. And I'm not sure Topp would have done better in the end if the race had polarized more between himself and Mulcair as the two main options - as he came remarkably close even without much perception of momentum near the end of the campaign. But if he had a chance to boost his fortunes just a bit, that could have made all the difference.
What if Robert Chisholm had stayed in the race?
The great question for Paul Dewar doesn't involve anything he could have influenced directly. But with Chisholm's exit, Dewar was left as the weakest French speaker among the candidates left in the race. And that made it all too easy to define Dewar in those terms - where a flailing Chisholm might have made language seem like much less of an issue for Dewar (or anybody else) in comparison.
As it turned out, though, it's also questionable whether Dewar had much of a path to victory in any event. So let's turn to the biggest what-if of all...
What if Nathan Cullen hadn't put joint nominations at the centre of his campaign?
It's fairly clear how Cullen may have seen a need to stand out in the race. And his joint nomination proposal worked wonders in some respects for his campaign - contributing thousands of members signing up solely for the purpose of supporting Cullen, providing a focal point for Cullen's campaign and ensuring that he'd be mentioned often throughout the race.
But of course, the flip side is that Cullen turned off a large number of NDP members from the beginning of the campaign. And while he likely succeeded in winning some of them over by the end, it's a wide open question whether Cullen's personality could have positioned him to emerge from the pack if not for a highly controversial central plank.
As with Topp's conundrum, there's a real possibility that the candidate involved reached the right answer for the purposes of the leadership campaign. And as party allegiances evolve in the years to come, Cullen's choice - winning him a higher profile across not only the NDP membership but the public at large - may have as profound an impact on some future NDP leadership campaign as it did on this year's.
Showing posts with label robert chisholm. Show all posts
Showing posts with label robert chisholm. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 03, 2012
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Leadership 2012 - Robert Chisholm Ends His Campaign
As might have been clear from my most recent candidate rankings, Robert Chisholm's odds of winning the NDP leadership have seemed limited for some time. But Chisholm's announcement that he's ending his campaign will nonetheless have a couple of important consequences for the remaining candidates.
Most obviously, Chisholm's exit leaves an opening for the remaining candidates to win over Atlantic establishment support. And it's an open question whether that will end up directed more toward Martin Singh as the remaining local candidate, or other front-runners as they add pieces to their existing campaign organization.
But perhaps more interestingly, there's also the question of what will happen to Chisholm's ideas page - which has served as the gold standard for user interactivity in the leadership campaign so far. It will be up to Chisholm to decide whether to maintain and expand that portion of his site from here on in - but I'd hope that we'll see either Chisholm's version or another candidate's equivalent develop as a magnet for policy discussion as the race develops.
Most obviously, Chisholm's exit leaves an opening for the remaining candidates to win over Atlantic establishment support. And it's an open question whether that will end up directed more toward Martin Singh as the remaining local candidate, or other front-runners as they add pieces to their existing campaign organization.
But perhaps more interestingly, there's also the question of what will happen to Chisholm's ideas page - which has served as the gold standard for user interactivity in the leadership campaign so far. It will be up to Chisholm to decide whether to maintain and expand that portion of his site from here on in - but I'd hope that we'll see either Chisholm's version or another candidate's equivalent develop as a magnet for policy discussion as the race develops.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - December 18, 2011
We now have at least a bit of pollster data to compare to Skinny Dipper's online poll on the relative positions of the NDP's leadership candidates. But Forum Research's results look to largely match the previous candidate positioning - which combines with relatively little news from the candidates' travels to make for another very quiet week in the candidate rankings.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Naturally Forum's results are more positive for Mulcair than for any other candidate. But it's worth sounding somewhat of a cautionary note since they're based on a poll of NDP voters rather than members - and one of Mulcair's most important challenges from day one has been to turn general positive impressions (particularly among NDP voters in Quebec) into member votes.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
No news is also good news for Nash, who placed a solid second in Forum's polling and has confirmed some of her down-ballot growth potential by pulling away from Mulcair in later-ballot results in Skinny Dipper's poll.
3. Brian Topp (3)
Meanwhile, the low starting point for every other candidate in Forum's polling means that my analysis will focus slightly more on growth potential than current starting points. And while Topp obviously hasn't managed to make himself the favourite at this point, he still has a strong organization set to help him build both name recognition and favourability.
4. Niki Ashton (5)
With the Canadian Wheat Board in the news Ashton has taken the opportunity to trumpet her theme that the NDP needs to rally support in the West. But it's still an open question as to whether enough will end up in Ashton's camp to keep her on the final ballots.
5. Paul Dewar (4)
Yes, his organization on paper is still a top-four machine. But if Forum is right in placing his current support then Dewar looks like he's running a far safer campaign than he can afford - with his "Your Canada Year" plan in particular looking like it's better seen as an election goodie for swing voters rather than an inspirational idea for the NDP's membership base.
6. Romeo Saganash (6)
He hasn't yet earned a place in major media headlines for it. But if the Harper Cons' push for private property on First Nations reserves becomes a major news story into the new year, it may well be exactly the boost Saganash needs to emerge as the leading defender of collective values as the leadership race progresses.
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
With the Libs pointing to a couple of polls as evidence that they're back on the upswing nationally, it's looking less and less likely that their activists will be desperate enough to cross party lines to back Cullen. And that figures to narrow his path to victory even further.
8. Martin Singh (8)
A quiet week for Singh extends his stay above the bottom rung of the ladder. But we'll have to see whether he has more on offer from a policy standpoint to draw attention as the campaign develops.
9. Robert Chisholm (9)
No, Chisholm isn't necessarily stuck here for the duration of the campaign. But no news for the week means no chance to improve his standing.
[Edit: fixed title.]
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Naturally Forum's results are more positive for Mulcair than for any other candidate. But it's worth sounding somewhat of a cautionary note since they're based on a poll of NDP voters rather than members - and one of Mulcair's most important challenges from day one has been to turn general positive impressions (particularly among NDP voters in Quebec) into member votes.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
No news is also good news for Nash, who placed a solid second in Forum's polling and has confirmed some of her down-ballot growth potential by pulling away from Mulcair in later-ballot results in Skinny Dipper's poll.
3. Brian Topp (3)
Meanwhile, the low starting point for every other candidate in Forum's polling means that my analysis will focus slightly more on growth potential than current starting points. And while Topp obviously hasn't managed to make himself the favourite at this point, he still has a strong organization set to help him build both name recognition and favourability.
4. Niki Ashton (5)
With the Canadian Wheat Board in the news Ashton has taken the opportunity to trumpet her theme that the NDP needs to rally support in the West. But it's still an open question as to whether enough will end up in Ashton's camp to keep her on the final ballots.
5. Paul Dewar (4)
Yes, his organization on paper is still a top-four machine. But if Forum is right in placing his current support then Dewar looks like he's running a far safer campaign than he can afford - with his "Your Canada Year" plan in particular looking like it's better seen as an election goodie for swing voters rather than an inspirational idea for the NDP's membership base.
6. Romeo Saganash (6)
He hasn't yet earned a place in major media headlines for it. But if the Harper Cons' push for private property on First Nations reserves becomes a major news story into the new year, it may well be exactly the boost Saganash needs to emerge as the leading defender of collective values as the leadership race progresses.
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
With the Libs pointing to a couple of polls as evidence that they're back on the upswing nationally, it's looking less and less likely that their activists will be desperate enough to cross party lines to back Cullen. And that figures to narrow his path to victory even further.
8. Martin Singh (8)
A quiet week for Singh extends his stay above the bottom rung of the ladder. But we'll have to see whether he has more on offer from a policy standpoint to draw attention as the campaign develops.
9. Robert Chisholm (9)
No, Chisholm isn't necessarily stuck here for the duration of the campaign. But no news for the week means no chance to improve his standing.
[Edit: fixed title.]
Monday, December 12, 2011
Leadership 2012 - Policy Roundup 2
Following up on my earlier post, let's take a quick look at the policy proposals that have been unveiled by NDP leadership candidates over the last couple of weeks.
- Niki Ashton's plan for a more inclusive economy includes plenty of noteworthy ideas, including a direct attack on structural discrimination and engaging labour and other partners in economic development along with many of the same proposals emanating from most of the contenders. There's plenty of room to flesh out the details, but Ashton's plan should give her a strong base for discussion as the campaign progresses.
- Rather than heavily promoting his own policy ideas, Robert Chisholm is asking interested voters to submit, discuss and vote on their own policy suggestions alongside his proposals. And no matter where Chisholm ends up in the leadership campaign, that looks to be a fantastic precedent for the party to follow.
- Paul Dewar's proposal to reinstate per-vote electoral funding with a focus on promoting women's participation has been fairly well received among members so far. But I have to wonder whether the latter purpose undermines the best rationale for the former: per-vote funding serves as an alternative (however meager) to proportional representation in making sure that every vote counts equally in a substantive sense, while Dewar's proposal would eliminate that effect.
- As part of a concerted effort to paint himself as the leading choice for environmental voters, Thomas Mulcair launched his climate change proposal (PDF). But it's worth noting that Mulcair's focus also includes some obvious efforts to win over relative skeptics of climate-change action - featuring both a strong economic case for putting a price on carbon through a cap-and-trade system, and a promise that revenues will be reinvested in the regions where they originated.
- Peggy Nash unveiled her broad economic vision (PDF) including both stronger income security programs and a direct link between those and economic goals. And she followed that up with an announcement on her LGBT priorities.
- Finally, Martin Singh released his pharmacare plan (PDF), consisting of not only a national funding mechanism but also a Canada-wide formulary and tendering process.
- Niki Ashton's plan for a more inclusive economy includes plenty of noteworthy ideas, including a direct attack on structural discrimination and engaging labour and other partners in economic development along with many of the same proposals emanating from most of the contenders. There's plenty of room to flesh out the details, but Ashton's plan should give her a strong base for discussion as the campaign progresses.
- Rather than heavily promoting his own policy ideas, Robert Chisholm is asking interested voters to submit, discuss and vote on their own policy suggestions alongside his proposals. And no matter where Chisholm ends up in the leadership campaign, that looks to be a fantastic precedent for the party to follow.
- Paul Dewar's proposal to reinstate per-vote electoral funding with a focus on promoting women's participation has been fairly well received among members so far. But I have to wonder whether the latter purpose undermines the best rationale for the former: per-vote funding serves as an alternative (however meager) to proportional representation in making sure that every vote counts equally in a substantive sense, while Dewar's proposal would eliminate that effect.
- As part of a concerted effort to paint himself as the leading choice for environmental voters, Thomas Mulcair launched his climate change proposal (PDF). But it's worth noting that Mulcair's focus also includes some obvious efforts to win over relative skeptics of climate-change action - featuring both a strong economic case for putting a price on carbon through a cap-and-trade system, and a promise that revenues will be reinvested in the regions where they originated.
- Peggy Nash unveiled her broad economic vision (PDF) including both stronger income security programs and a direct link between those and economic goals. And she followed that up with an announcement on her LGBT priorities.
- Finally, Martin Singh released his pharmacare plan (PDF), consisting of not only a national funding mechanism but also a Canada-wide formulary and tendering process.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - December 10, 2011
While there was plenty to talk about following the NDP's first leadership debate, the effect of such an early event on the candidates' long-term prospects was bound to be limited. And so the most-discussed event of the campaign so far hasn't led to much change from last week's rankings.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Of course, part of the reason why not much has changed is that the front-runners mostly lived up to their billing. And Mulcair in particular strengthened his position this week with both a strong debate performance and a key policy launch. Which means that while there's still some question as to how he'll do in attracting both new and current members, Mulcair isn't far from being classified in a top tier of his own.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Nash generally held her position in the first debate, presenting arguably the strongest economic message of any candidate in English while making a passable showing in French. And that's enough to keep her in the #2 spot for now - though hopefully we'll see a pivot from endorsement announcements to more direct interaction between Nash and members as the race develops.
3. Brian Topp (3)
Similarly, Topp largely achieved what I figured to be his main task for the first policy debate, holding his own on both ideas and presentation (the occasional distracting movement aside). But while I can see the strategic reason for his choice to "bump gloves" with Paul Dewar, the sense that Topp is being more combative toward his partymates than other contenders may cut into his ability to win over needed later-ballot support.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
I'll avoid dropping Dewar based on an unimpressive debate showing, particularly since his policy release on linking per-vote funding to a party's slate of female candidates seems to have been fairly well-received so far. But at this point, I'd place Dewar closer to the candidates below him than the ones above.
5. Niki Ashton (6)
And by standing out among the middle tier of candidates at the start of the campaign, Ashton looks to have a reasonable chance to elevate herself in the field - particularly if she can show enough growth in her own presentation (ideally going from her default "new politics" theme to a bit more off-the-cuff discussion) to assuage questions about her age.
6. Romeo Saganash (5)
Saganash drops because of Ashton's strong debate performance rather than any particular problem on his part. But again, there are only so many opportunities for Saganash to live up to his potential as a candidate - and even if health was a factor last weekend, the loss of one of chances those can only narrow Saganash's path to victory.
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
For now, Cullen's strong debate performance doesn't change a lot in the larger scheme of things. But if there's some indication that he's pulling in support from outside the NDP's base, that will go a long way toward moving him up the list.
8. Martin Singh (9)
No, Singh didn't wow anybody in his first chance to go toe to toe with his competitors. But nor did he appear the least bit out of place - and that offers reason for hope that he can win over members as the leadership campaign progresses.
9. Robert Chisholm (8)
This week's endorsement by Howard Hampton at least gives Chisholm enough of a boost to keep his campaign from fading away entirely. But Chisholm won't move substantially higher than this position until he demonstrates some ability to do more than read French text with an English pronunciation - and it's hard to see how he'll get there during the course of the leadership campaign if Sunday's performance was the result of several months of tutelage.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Of course, part of the reason why not much has changed is that the front-runners mostly lived up to their billing. And Mulcair in particular strengthened his position this week with both a strong debate performance and a key policy launch. Which means that while there's still some question as to how he'll do in attracting both new and current members, Mulcair isn't far from being classified in a top tier of his own.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Nash generally held her position in the first debate, presenting arguably the strongest economic message of any candidate in English while making a passable showing in French. And that's enough to keep her in the #2 spot for now - though hopefully we'll see a pivot from endorsement announcements to more direct interaction between Nash and members as the race develops.
3. Brian Topp (3)
Similarly, Topp largely achieved what I figured to be his main task for the first policy debate, holding his own on both ideas and presentation (the occasional distracting movement aside). But while I can see the strategic reason for his choice to "bump gloves" with Paul Dewar, the sense that Topp is being more combative toward his partymates than other contenders may cut into his ability to win over needed later-ballot support.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
I'll avoid dropping Dewar based on an unimpressive debate showing, particularly since his policy release on linking per-vote funding to a party's slate of female candidates seems to have been fairly well-received so far. But at this point, I'd place Dewar closer to the candidates below him than the ones above.
5. Niki Ashton (6)
And by standing out among the middle tier of candidates at the start of the campaign, Ashton looks to have a reasonable chance to elevate herself in the field - particularly if she can show enough growth in her own presentation (ideally going from her default "new politics" theme to a bit more off-the-cuff discussion) to assuage questions about her age.
6. Romeo Saganash (5)
Saganash drops because of Ashton's strong debate performance rather than any particular problem on his part. But again, there are only so many opportunities for Saganash to live up to his potential as a candidate - and even if health was a factor last weekend, the loss of one of chances those can only narrow Saganash's path to victory.
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
For now, Cullen's strong debate performance doesn't change a lot in the larger scheme of things. But if there's some indication that he's pulling in support from outside the NDP's base, that will go a long way toward moving him up the list.
8. Martin Singh (9)
No, Singh didn't wow anybody in his first chance to go toe to toe with his competitors. But nor did he appear the least bit out of place - and that offers reason for hope that he can win over members as the leadership campaign progresses.
9. Robert Chisholm (8)
This week's endorsement by Howard Hampton at least gives Chisholm enough of a boost to keep his campaign from fading away entirely. But Chisholm won't move substantially higher than this position until he demonstrates some ability to do more than read French text with an English pronunciation - and it's hard to see how he'll get there during the course of the leadership campaign if Sunday's performance was the result of several months of tutelage.
Monday, December 05, 2011
Leadership 2012 - Debate 1 Wrapup
Plenty of others have already commented on the NDP's first leadership debate. But I haven't yet seen any that line up with my take on yesterday's chance for candidates to introduce themselves to the country.
To start with, the perceived top-tier candidates generally lived up to their billing. Thomas Mulcair effectively managed both the subject matter and the setting throughout; Brian Topp held serve on the former point and showed some promise that he'll grow into the role of reaching out to the public; and Peggy Nash put to rest any doubts that she can rouse a crowd in English, while leaving a few open questions about her ability to do so in French.
But there was one exception.
I've been careful to avoid docking candidates too many points for having some room to improve in a second language. But in order to win the benefit of the doubt, a candidate does need to sound compelling in his or her more familiar language. And on that point, Paul Dewar suffered in comparison to Nathan Cullen - who seemed more comfortable than any contender other than Mulcair, sounding more confident even in his entirely improvised lines than Dewar did in presenting his own policies.
That made Cullen the candidate who gained the most from yesterday's debate - even if it's an open question whether any amount of personal appeal can overcome his strategic choice to make cooperation with the Liberals the centrepiece of his campaign. But Cullen's ease in front of an audience may end up serving as the dividing line between the NDP's serious contenders and its also-rans - and yesterday, Dewar fell short of the standard.
The other candidate who saw a substantial drop in his standing yesterday was of course Robert Chisholm. In part, that was the result of the same issue as for Dewar: in order to win the benefit of the doubt on a lack of French he needed to outclass his competitors in English, and Chisholm wasn't able to do that. But more importantly, Chisholm provided the few painful moments of what was otherwise a highly professional debate with his attempts to speak French. And nothing can undermine a candidacy based on political smarts and experience faster than getting laughed at on national television for an ill-advised attempt to sound out words in an unfamiliar language.
Meanwhile, the other contenders at least held their own, and may have done more than that. Niki Ashton was effective in both languages, though she'll need to be somewhat more judicious in her use of the "new politics" theme as the debates go on. Romeo Saganash mirrored Nash's pluses and minuses, sounding awkward in English but looking like a top-tier contender in French. And Martin Singh avoided any rookie mistakes in sticking to his preferred themes - making for an introduction that gives him a chance to build up to the later debates.
All in all, yesterday doesn't figure to have been decisive for any candidate's chances in the months to come. But it certainly figures to focus attention on the areas candidates will need to develop as the campaign progresses.
To start with, the perceived top-tier candidates generally lived up to their billing. Thomas Mulcair effectively managed both the subject matter and the setting throughout; Brian Topp held serve on the former point and showed some promise that he'll grow into the role of reaching out to the public; and Peggy Nash put to rest any doubts that she can rouse a crowd in English, while leaving a few open questions about her ability to do so in French.
But there was one exception.
I've been careful to avoid docking candidates too many points for having some room to improve in a second language. But in order to win the benefit of the doubt, a candidate does need to sound compelling in his or her more familiar language. And on that point, Paul Dewar suffered in comparison to Nathan Cullen - who seemed more comfortable than any contender other than Mulcair, sounding more confident even in his entirely improvised lines than Dewar did in presenting his own policies.
That made Cullen the candidate who gained the most from yesterday's debate - even if it's an open question whether any amount of personal appeal can overcome his strategic choice to make cooperation with the Liberals the centrepiece of his campaign. But Cullen's ease in front of an audience may end up serving as the dividing line between the NDP's serious contenders and its also-rans - and yesterday, Dewar fell short of the standard.
The other candidate who saw a substantial drop in his standing yesterday was of course Robert Chisholm. In part, that was the result of the same issue as for Dewar: in order to win the benefit of the doubt on a lack of French he needed to outclass his competitors in English, and Chisholm wasn't able to do that. But more importantly, Chisholm provided the few painful moments of what was otherwise a highly professional debate with his attempts to speak French. And nothing can undermine a candidacy based on political smarts and experience faster than getting laughed at on national television for an ill-advised attempt to sound out words in an unfamiliar language.
Meanwhile, the other contenders at least held their own, and may have done more than that. Niki Ashton was effective in both languages, though she'll need to be somewhat more judicious in her use of the "new politics" theme as the debates go on. Romeo Saganash mirrored Nash's pluses and minuses, sounding awkward in English but looking like a top-tier contender in French. And Martin Singh avoided any rookie mistakes in sticking to his preferred themes - making for an introduction that gives him a chance to build up to the later debates.
All in all, yesterday doesn't figure to have been decisive for any candidate's chances in the months to come. But it certainly figures to focus attention on the areas candidates will need to develop as the campaign progresses.
Sunday, December 04, 2011
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - December 4, 2011
Not a lot has changed since last week's rankings. But with the first NDP leadership debate looming this afternoon, let's quickly take stock of where the candidates stand - including with a quick take on what they'll each need to accomplish this afternoon.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
There isn't much doubt about Mulcair's command of the issues, and the economy should be a particularly strong suit given his extensive work as a national spokesperson and liaison for the NDP. So Mulcair's main goal for today figures to be to stay above the fray: he'll surely be in the sights of a few of the other candidates, and will need to avoid negative impressions among the other candidates and their supporters which might limit his later-ballot support.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Nash too has plenty of experience speaking out on economic issues. But she may have somewhat more at stake than Mulcair since her personal brand is so closely linked to left-wing economic populism - meaning that if she can't inspire the base with both content and style, the rest of the campaign may get much tougher for her.
3. Brian Topp (4)
Topp makes a slight move up in the rankings thanks to the release of his tax plan, which served as a reminder that his air campaign is as well planned out as anybody's. But today may be the most important test as to whether Topp can live up to the hype surrounding his endorsements and media profile.
4. Paul Dewar (3)
Dewar drops one position for now through no fault of his own. But today may be telling as to Dewar's ability to connect with voters in French, with a secure place in the upper tier of the campaign at stake.
5. Romeo Saganash (5)
None of the leadership contenders figures to rely more on a possible snowball effect to push them to the front of the pack than Saganash. And today provides the best chance to get the ball rolling if Saganash can win over unaligned members to join his camp.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
While most of the other candidates will be working on standing out in the debate, Ashton's goal may be slightly less lofty: she can dispel concerns about her age and experience if she can hold her own in sparring with her fellow candidates on economic values and policies.
7. Nathan Cullen (8)
Cullen actually rises one position thanks to the lack of discussion of his signature policy: while any talk about pre-electoral cooperation with the Liberals figures to turn off a substantial part of the NDP's base, the rest of Cullen's candidacy looks significantly more appealing. But obviously Cullen can't afford to keep up that pattern if he hopes to rise in the field - which means that the goal for today has to be to reach outside the party to start bringing in the external support he'll need to stay on the ballot.
8. Robert Chisholm (7)
Since Chisholm's appeal is based in large part on his experience as Nova Scotia's opposition leader, he doesn't figure to benefit much from a policy area of strength. Instead, he needs to express himself in French at least enough to create some hope that he'll be able to communicate in both of Canada's official languages by the end of the leadership campaign.
[Update: I see from the CP's report that Chisholm plans to rely on simultaneous translation. Which may kick the can down the road for later in the campaign compared to trying and failing to debate in French now - but means that he'll make no headway at all on the biggest question about his candidacy.]
9. Martin Singh (9)
Singh stays at the bottom of the list for now. But the first debate offers him an ideal chance to introduce himself to the country at large - and since Singh has avoided the pitfalls of the candidates ahead of him, he might well rise by next week if he's well-received.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
There isn't much doubt about Mulcair's command of the issues, and the economy should be a particularly strong suit given his extensive work as a national spokesperson and liaison for the NDP. So Mulcair's main goal for today figures to be to stay above the fray: he'll surely be in the sights of a few of the other candidates, and will need to avoid negative impressions among the other candidates and their supporters which might limit his later-ballot support.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Nash too has plenty of experience speaking out on economic issues. But she may have somewhat more at stake than Mulcair since her personal brand is so closely linked to left-wing economic populism - meaning that if she can't inspire the base with both content and style, the rest of the campaign may get much tougher for her.
3. Brian Topp (4)
Topp makes a slight move up in the rankings thanks to the release of his tax plan, which served as a reminder that his air campaign is as well planned out as anybody's. But today may be the most important test as to whether Topp can live up to the hype surrounding his endorsements and media profile.
4. Paul Dewar (3)
Dewar drops one position for now through no fault of his own. But today may be telling as to Dewar's ability to connect with voters in French, with a secure place in the upper tier of the campaign at stake.
5. Romeo Saganash (5)
None of the leadership contenders figures to rely more on a possible snowball effect to push them to the front of the pack than Saganash. And today provides the best chance to get the ball rolling if Saganash can win over unaligned members to join his camp.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
While most of the other candidates will be working on standing out in the debate, Ashton's goal may be slightly less lofty: she can dispel concerns about her age and experience if she can hold her own in sparring with her fellow candidates on economic values and policies.
7. Nathan Cullen (8)
Cullen actually rises one position thanks to the lack of discussion of his signature policy: while any talk about pre-electoral cooperation with the Liberals figures to turn off a substantial part of the NDP's base, the rest of Cullen's candidacy looks significantly more appealing. But obviously Cullen can't afford to keep up that pattern if he hopes to rise in the field - which means that the goal for today has to be to reach outside the party to start bringing in the external support he'll need to stay on the ballot.
8. Robert Chisholm (7)
Since Chisholm's appeal is based in large part on his experience as Nova Scotia's opposition leader, he doesn't figure to benefit much from a policy area of strength. Instead, he needs to express himself in French at least enough to create some hope that he'll be able to communicate in both of Canada's official languages by the end of the leadership campaign.
[Update: I see from the CP's report that Chisholm plans to rely on simultaneous translation. Which may kick the can down the road for later in the campaign compared to trying and failing to debate in French now - but means that he'll make no headway at all on the biggest question about his candidacy.]
9. Martin Singh (9)
Singh stays at the bottom of the list for now. But the first debate offers him an ideal chance to introduce himself to the country at large - and since Singh has avoided the pitfalls of the candidates ahead of him, he might well rise by next week if he's well-received.
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - November 26, 2011
Last weekend, I mentioned my intention to introduce NDP leadership rankings. Before getting to the rankings themselves, though, let's make clear exactly what the below is intended to reflect.
First, unlike Ian Capstick's survey, I'm not making any effort yet to determine who figures to do the best on becoming leader, only to sort out who has the best chance of winning the opportunity. (I'll wait until much later to make an endorsement to try to answer the "who's best?" question.)
Second, while the rankings are intended to reflect the best chances of winning the March 25 leadership vote, a huge range of outcomes is possible at this point - both based on the amount of time and exposure left in the race, and the many permutations involved in a multiple-ballot vote. I won't be guessing at percentages by candidate this time out, but in a field with such a large number of credible candidates I wouldn't see any single contestant as having more than maybe a 35-40% chance of winning from where we stand now. So a #1 ranking isn't exactly a prediction of success - nor does a ranking toward the bottom suggest a candidate is out of the race, only that more factors have to break right to allow for a win.
With that in mind, here's my first ranking of the leadership contenders based solely on their likelihood of winning the March 25 vote...
1. Thomas Mulcair
Yes, he's faced some backlash within both the media and the party. But Mulcair is still the most-recognized name in the race, with loads of popularity in his home province and a reasonably strong organization elsewhere - meaning that the main question for Mulcair is whether he can win enough down-ballot support to add to what looks like the strongest first-ballot position.
2. Peggy Nash
The big question for Nash remains her ability to connect with the NDP's new Quebec supporters - and as a result her performance in French in the debates may be key to her candidacy. But a base of support from labour and the GTA was always a potent combination, and Nash has added to that with big names and activists alike to position herself as one of the top contenders.
3. Paul Dewar
At the outset of the race I didn't see how Dewar would be able to overcome the lack of an obvious natural constituency other than by making a general personality-based appeal. But he appears to be well down that road, earning plaudits for his early policy talk and garnering a decent amount of media attention without any negative reaction that I've seen.
4. Brian Topp
As I've noted before, Topp's early-campaign media splash was exactly what he needed to join the top tier of candidates and earn a serious chance to win over supporters. But I haven't seen much indication that he's made much progress since that successful launch - and while he's fairly well positioned to win later-ballot support, that won't help much if he can't stay ahead of Dewar and Nash in early rounds of voting.
5. Romeo Saganash
Saganash still looks to have as much chance as anybody to wow NDP members as the campaign goes on. But he's already made one misstep with a walk-back on the effects of a sovereignty referendum, and will need to find the right balance between conveying a personal and transformational message and making sure that his relatively limited exposure is positive enough to win members over.
6. Niki Ashton
Ashton has run a relatively strong campaign, and would likely finish higher than this ranking on a first ballot today. But even if she can push into the upper half of the field, she'll face an extra challenge in trying to get down-ballot voters to look at the positives of her age rather than ruling her out (however unfairly) - resulting in her having a slightly tougher road to the leadership than the contenders above her.
7. Robert Chisholm
He's well-liked by all accounts and has earned some significant endorsements. But it's hard to see how Chisholm can find the time to simultaneously learn enough French to hold his own in the debates starting just next week, and reach enough of the country to build from a relatively low profile.
8. Nathan Cullen
Cullen's proposal for cooperation with the Liberals was always a high-risk, high-reward choice. But so far the result looks to have been far more downside than upside: plenty of diehard NDP members have moved Cullen to the bottom of their lists as a result, while there isn't yet much evidence of an influx of new members seeking to back Cullen's proposal. Which means that while Cullen might figure to finish a spot or two higher on the first ballot, his potential for growth is severely limited.
9. Martin Singh
I'll give full credit to Singh for showing some organizational strength in various regions of the country, and I wouldn't rule out his moving up this list as the campaign progresses. But for now his lack of name recognition still looks to be a tougher hurdle than any of Singh's competitors are facing.
First, unlike Ian Capstick's survey, I'm not making any effort yet to determine who figures to do the best on becoming leader, only to sort out who has the best chance of winning the opportunity. (I'll wait until much later to make an endorsement to try to answer the "who's best?" question.)
Second, while the rankings are intended to reflect the best chances of winning the March 25 leadership vote, a huge range of outcomes is possible at this point - both based on the amount of time and exposure left in the race, and the many permutations involved in a multiple-ballot vote. I won't be guessing at percentages by candidate this time out, but in a field with such a large number of credible candidates I wouldn't see any single contestant as having more than maybe a 35-40% chance of winning from where we stand now. So a #1 ranking isn't exactly a prediction of success - nor does a ranking toward the bottom suggest a candidate is out of the race, only that more factors have to break right to allow for a win.
With that in mind, here's my first ranking of the leadership contenders based solely on their likelihood of winning the March 25 vote...
1. Thomas Mulcair
Yes, he's faced some backlash within both the media and the party. But Mulcair is still the most-recognized name in the race, with loads of popularity in his home province and a reasonably strong organization elsewhere - meaning that the main question for Mulcair is whether he can win enough down-ballot support to add to what looks like the strongest first-ballot position.
2. Peggy Nash
The big question for Nash remains her ability to connect with the NDP's new Quebec supporters - and as a result her performance in French in the debates may be key to her candidacy. But a base of support from labour and the GTA was always a potent combination, and Nash has added to that with big names and activists alike to position herself as one of the top contenders.
3. Paul Dewar
At the outset of the race I didn't see how Dewar would be able to overcome the lack of an obvious natural constituency other than by making a general personality-based appeal. But he appears to be well down that road, earning plaudits for his early policy talk and garnering a decent amount of media attention without any negative reaction that I've seen.
4. Brian Topp
As I've noted before, Topp's early-campaign media splash was exactly what he needed to join the top tier of candidates and earn a serious chance to win over supporters. But I haven't seen much indication that he's made much progress since that successful launch - and while he's fairly well positioned to win later-ballot support, that won't help much if he can't stay ahead of Dewar and Nash in early rounds of voting.
5. Romeo Saganash
Saganash still looks to have as much chance as anybody to wow NDP members as the campaign goes on. But he's already made one misstep with a walk-back on the effects of a sovereignty referendum, and will need to find the right balance between conveying a personal and transformational message and making sure that his relatively limited exposure is positive enough to win members over.
6. Niki Ashton
Ashton has run a relatively strong campaign, and would likely finish higher than this ranking on a first ballot today. But even if she can push into the upper half of the field, she'll face an extra challenge in trying to get down-ballot voters to look at the positives of her age rather than ruling her out (however unfairly) - resulting in her having a slightly tougher road to the leadership than the contenders above her.
7. Robert Chisholm
He's well-liked by all accounts and has earned some significant endorsements. But it's hard to see how Chisholm can find the time to simultaneously learn enough French to hold his own in the debates starting just next week, and reach enough of the country to build from a relatively low profile.
8. Nathan Cullen
Cullen's proposal for cooperation with the Liberals was always a high-risk, high-reward choice. But so far the result looks to have been far more downside than upside: plenty of diehard NDP members have moved Cullen to the bottom of their lists as a result, while there isn't yet much evidence of an influx of new members seeking to back Cullen's proposal. Which means that while Cullen might figure to finish a spot or two higher on the first ballot, his potential for growth is severely limited.
9. Martin Singh
I'll give full credit to Singh for showing some organizational strength in various regions of the country, and I wouldn't rule out his moving up this list as the campaign progresses. But for now his lack of name recognition still looks to be a tougher hurdle than any of Singh's competitors are facing.
Friday, September 23, 2011
By way of comparison
Tim Naumetz points out what strikes me as a surprising trend of potential NDP leadership candidates expressing concern about the cost of participating in the race:
With that in mind, guess which leadership contestant who couldn't crack 5% of the delegate support was nonetheless able to raise $212,247.16 for his own campaign? Yes, that's right.
That means that the NDP's ground rules are already set up to keep any of the party's contenders from falling into the same trap as Lib candidates who had to plan for million-dollar campaigns to have any hope of contending. And by the same token, the cost of a campaign shouldn't serve as a barrier to any of the MPs whose names are being bandied about.
“Money is a big deal,” Nova Scotia NDP MP Robert Chisholm (Dartmouth-Cole Harbor, N.S.) told The Hill Times on Thursday. “I don’t think any of us, anybody that’s considering running, wants to put themselves in a situation where they come out of it with a huge debt. It’s a very serious concern, so that’s probably the biggest thing at the moment.”Of course, there's no risk of the NDP leadership race developing into the type of big-money arms race that the Libs' contest became in 2006. After all, the spending cap is set at roughly the same amount of money spent by even the Libs' mid-tier candidates. Which means that Chisholm is probably right to think that a candidate can stay in the race without spending much more than $200,000.
...
Mr. Chisholm signalled Thursday he is close to assuring himself he will have enough financial support to spend what one MP described as a minimum of between $200,000 and $300,000 to have a chance of winning or finishing well.
“I’m moving in that direction, doing things that are getting get me closer,” Mr. Chisholm said.
Mr. Julian was the first to indicate financial backing, limited under the Canada Elections Act to maximum individual contributions of $1,200, was the central concern of prospective candidates. Elections Canada only since the May 2 election increased the political contribution limit from its previous level of $1,100, according to an automatic inflation adjustment formula within the Elections Act.
“No one wants to be another Ken Dryden,” Mr. Julian told The Hill Times during the NDP caucus meeting in Quebec City last week.
With that in mind, guess which leadership contestant who couldn't crack 5% of the delegate support was nonetheless able to raise $212,247.16 for his own campaign? Yes, that's right.
That means that the NDP's ground rules are already set up to keep any of the party's contenders from falling into the same trap as Lib candidates who had to plan for million-dollar campaigns to have any hope of contending. And by the same token, the cost of a campaign shouldn't serve as a barrier to any of the MPs whose names are being bandied about.
Friday, September 16, 2011
Taking shape
With the NDP's leadership rules now set, let's take a look at how the race is shaping up. As best I can tell, the Mark's list of candidates looks to reflect the group most likely to enter the race, featuring Brian Topp, Thomas Mulcair, Niki Ashton, Peter Julian and Robert Chisholm. And if that proves to be the field, the result should be a highly competitive race with plenty of different paths to victory for various candidates.
To start with, I'm far from convinced that Topp's early media blitz has separated him from the pack. As the lone non-MP of the bunch, he likely saw some value in building name recognition before anybody else could get out of the gate, and he's certainly succeeded on that front. But I'm not sure there was ever any prospect that he'd develop an air of inevitability - meaning that there's still every reason for the other strong candidates to push ahead.
Meanwhile, Topp's entry into the race did put a stop to any talk that Thomas Mulcair could instead be the candidate to end the race before it effectively began. But it may actually have helped Mulcair's chances of coming out on top in a multi-candidate race.
After all, with Topp serving as the main focus of outside critics and intra-party concerns alike, the possibility of an "anybody but..." movement materializing around Mulcair looks to have evaporated. And that may have given Mulcair some valuable space to build his support network within Quebec and his profile outside it.
However, the potential candidate who looks to have gained the most from the emerging shape of the race is Niki Ashton. When there was talk of Romeo Saganash throwing his hat into the ring, I pointed out that Ashton had the most to lose if that happened. But the converse is also true - and barring an entry into the race by Nathan Cullen, the field couldn't have been designed to give Ashton a better chance of winning.
After all, in the field discussed above, Ashton would simultaneously be the lone female candidate, the lone rural/Northern candidate, the lone Prairie candidate, and the candidate best positioned to speak to younger and more activist members. And a coalition including all those components could propel Ashton toward the top of the list in a hurry.
Meanwhile, Peter Julian's candidacy already figured to be based in large part on suburban multicultural outreach. But the (unconfirmed) possibility that Rathika Sitabaiesan might assemble an outreach effort in Ontario to match Julian's base in B.C. - combined with his strong reputation as an advocate on equality and trade issues - gives him an obvious path toward the top of the ballot as well.
Finally, Robert Chisholm looks to be somewhat of a longshot in the above field. But he'd offer both an Atlantic option and another strong labour voice - and particularly given his extensive experience and strong reputation, it's not out of the question that he could win over enough members between now and March to find his way into the thick of the race.
All of which is to say that the leadership contest is shaping up largely as I'd hoped: with multiple strong candidates having the potential to reach out to diverse groups of supporters, and enough possible permutations of ballot choices that there's no reason for any candidate's supporters to try to turn the into the type of two-way personality battle that tends to create longer-term divions.
Of course, we don't yet have confirmation from any of the candidates other than Topp as to their intentions. But aside from a couple of niches (a GTA candidate, a second strong female and Quebec candidate), the field as it's shaping up looks like it should mostly cover the NDP's current bases while offering ample opportunity to reach out to new members. And that opportunity for growth during the race may be more important for the NDP's future than which of the strong contenders emerges as the party's leader by the end.
Update: Or maybe the shape of the race isn't quite so clear: after a day of reports that he'd be backing Topp, Saganash is in after all.
To start with, I'm far from convinced that Topp's early media blitz has separated him from the pack. As the lone non-MP of the bunch, he likely saw some value in building name recognition before anybody else could get out of the gate, and he's certainly succeeded on that front. But I'm not sure there was ever any prospect that he'd develop an air of inevitability - meaning that there's still every reason for the other strong candidates to push ahead.
Meanwhile, Topp's entry into the race did put a stop to any talk that Thomas Mulcair could instead be the candidate to end the race before it effectively began. But it may actually have helped Mulcair's chances of coming out on top in a multi-candidate race.
After all, with Topp serving as the main focus of outside critics and intra-party concerns alike, the possibility of an "anybody but..." movement materializing around Mulcair looks to have evaporated. And that may have given Mulcair some valuable space to build his support network within Quebec and his profile outside it.
However, the potential candidate who looks to have gained the most from the emerging shape of the race is Niki Ashton. When there was talk of Romeo Saganash throwing his hat into the ring, I pointed out that Ashton had the most to lose if that happened. But the converse is also true - and barring an entry into the race by Nathan Cullen, the field couldn't have been designed to give Ashton a better chance of winning.
After all, in the field discussed above, Ashton would simultaneously be the lone female candidate, the lone rural/Northern candidate, the lone Prairie candidate, and the candidate best positioned to speak to younger and more activist members. And a coalition including all those components could propel Ashton toward the top of the list in a hurry.
Meanwhile, Peter Julian's candidacy already figured to be based in large part on suburban multicultural outreach. But the (unconfirmed) possibility that Rathika Sitabaiesan might assemble an outreach effort in Ontario to match Julian's base in B.C. - combined with his strong reputation as an advocate on equality and trade issues - gives him an obvious path toward the top of the ballot as well.
Finally, Robert Chisholm looks to be somewhat of a longshot in the above field. But he'd offer both an Atlantic option and another strong labour voice - and particularly given his extensive experience and strong reputation, it's not out of the question that he could win over enough members between now and March to find his way into the thick of the race.
All of which is to say that the leadership contest is shaping up largely as I'd hoped: with multiple strong candidates having the potential to reach out to diverse groups of supporters, and enough possible permutations of ballot choices that there's no reason for any candidate's supporters to try to turn the into the type of two-way personality battle that tends to create longer-term divions.
Of course, we don't yet have confirmation from any of the candidates other than Topp as to their intentions. But aside from a couple of niches (a GTA candidate, a second strong female and Quebec candidate), the field as it's shaping up looks like it should mostly cover the NDP's current bases while offering ample opportunity to reach out to new members. And that opportunity for growth during the race may be more important for the NDP's future than which of the strong contenders emerges as the party's leader by the end.
Update: Or maybe the shape of the race isn't quite so clear: after a day of reports that he'd be backing Topp, Saganash is in after all.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
The debate begins
Earlier this week, Gary Mason asked whether there would be any serious debate over the CETA. In case there were any doubt, Robert Chisholm provides the answer:
These deals can create jobs or ship them overseas. They can foster growth that supports our social programs or put these programs at risk. They can promote human rights abroad or undermine Canadian values at home. And they can enrich our communities with new opportunities — or hollow them out.
This isn’t a "free trade" against "protectionism" debate. This century’s economic challenges compel us to move beyond the old "free trade" model of blanket deregulation alongside unfettered foreign access to Canadian resources. Instead, we need domestic policies that help us take full advantage of opportunities on the global front. Effective trade agreements can open doors for our businesses without tying our hands at home.
Our trade minister forgets how Canada became one of the world’s best places to live. We owe a great deal to progressive industrial and social policies that fostered a strong, family-supporting domestic economy — and sought to ensure its survival in a competitive world.
...
New Democrats believe trade must be a priority, but every agreement should deliver a clear net benefit to Canada. This means bargaining hard for deals that open up new markets while protecting Canada’s public services; fostering quality job creation by promoting exports of value-added goods over bulk exports of raw materials; and making sure public health, environmental and human-rights concerns are front and centre.
An NDP government would ensure a full and open assessment of any proposed trade agreement’s impact on our families and communities, so we can have a vigorous public dialogue and make informed choices. Unlike this Conservative government, New Democrats trust Canadians to be part of this debate.
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