Taking shape

With the NDP's leadership rules now set, let's take a look at how the race is shaping up. As best I can tell, the Mark's list of candidates looks to reflect the group most likely to enter the race, featuring Brian Topp, Thomas Mulcair, Niki Ashton, Peter Julian and Robert Chisholm. And if that proves to be the field, the result should be a highly competitive race with plenty of different paths to victory for various candidates.

To start with, I'm far from convinced that Topp's early media blitz has separated him from the pack. As the lone non-MP of the bunch, he likely saw some value in building name recognition before anybody else could get out of the gate, and he's certainly succeeded on that front. But I'm not sure there was ever any prospect that he'd develop an air of inevitability - meaning that there's still every reason for the other strong candidates to push ahead.

Meanwhile, Topp's entry into the race did put a stop to any talk that Thomas Mulcair could instead be the candidate to end the race before it effectively began. But it may actually have helped Mulcair's chances of coming out on top in a multi-candidate race.

After all, with Topp serving as the main focus of outside critics and intra-party concerns alike, the possibility of an "anybody but..." movement materializing around Mulcair looks to have evaporated. And that may have given Mulcair some valuable space to build his support network within Quebec and his profile outside it.

However, the potential candidate who looks to have gained the most from the emerging shape of the race is Niki Ashton. When there was talk of Romeo Saganash throwing his hat into the ring, I pointed out that Ashton had the most to lose if that happened. But the converse is also true - and barring an entry into the race by Nathan Cullen, the field couldn't have been designed to give Ashton a better chance of winning.

After all, in the field discussed above, Ashton would simultaneously be the lone female candidate, the lone rural/Northern candidate, the lone Prairie candidate, and the candidate best positioned to speak to younger and more activist members. And a coalition including all those components could propel Ashton toward the top of the list in a hurry.

Meanwhile, Peter Julian's candidacy already figured to be based in large part on suburban multicultural outreach. But the (unconfirmed) possibility that Rathika Sitabaiesan might assemble an outreach effort in Ontario to match Julian's base in B.C. - combined with his strong reputation as an advocate on equality and trade issues - gives him an obvious path toward the top of the ballot as well.

Finally, Robert Chisholm looks to be somewhat of a longshot in the above field. But he'd offer both an Atlantic option and another strong labour voice - and particularly given his extensive experience and strong reputation, it's not out of the question that he could win over enough members between now and March to find his way into the thick of the race.

All of which is to say that the leadership contest is shaping up largely as I'd hoped: with multiple strong candidates having the potential to reach out to diverse groups of supporters, and enough possible permutations of ballot choices that there's no reason for any candidate's supporters to try to turn the into the type of two-way personality battle that tends to create longer-term divions.

Of course, we don't yet have confirmation from any of the candidates other than Topp as to their intentions. But aside from a couple of niches (a GTA candidate, a second strong female and Quebec candidate), the field as it's shaping up looks like it should mostly cover the NDP's current bases while offering ample opportunity to reach out to new members. And that opportunity for growth during the race may be more important for the NDP's future than which of the strong contenders emerges as the party's leader by the end.

Update: Or maybe the shape of the race isn't quite so clear: after a day of reports that he'd be backing Topp, Saganash is in after all.