A few local campaign notes for your weekend reading...
- Yes, the story receiving the most attention in Quebec today is the polling showing Thomas Mulcair with a twenty-point lead over Martin Cauchon in Outremont. And it's certainly striking to see that a riding considered a Lib stronghold for so long has reached the point where a prominent former cabinet minister is struggling to stay even slightly competitive.
- But the more noteworthy news from the standpoint of changing seat projections may be the latest from Hull-Aylmer. There, the combination of a endorsement from the Public Service Alliance of Canada and a series of missteps by the Bloc's candidate both look like significant boosts for the NDP's Nycole Turmel in one of the party's top Quebec targets - positioning Turmel at least as the clear alternative to Marcel Proulx, if not outright turning the race into a photo-finish in the making.
- In case somebody took the Cons seriously in claiming that no party would allow participants in a public event to present anything other than the party line, Jack Layton has clearly proven otherwise in his Kamloops town hall. And it's particularly worth noting Layton's willingness to answer challenges honestly rather than trying to paper over them or change the subject.
- And for those looking for their own opportunity to meet a leader who isn't afraid of questions, Layton's tour will take him to Saskatoon this morning and La Ronge this afternoon.
Showing posts with label outremont. Show all posts
Showing posts with label outremont. Show all posts
Saturday, April 09, 2011
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
On thuggery
One would think that after the mess Michael Ignatieff made for his party in Outremont earlier this year, he'd at least make sure that the nomination process played out without any further obvious personal slights to would-be candidates. But apparently a fair and open nomination process is far beyond the Libs' capability, as Martin Cauchon's main rival for the nomination has been run out of the race.
Not only was Comlan Amouzou repeatedly pressured to withdraw - a message at least once traced back to Cauchon's camp - but he was apparently denied the ability to sell party memberships in order to try to mount a challenge. And while Amouzou has apparently withdrawn from the nomination battle, he isn't taking the party's slights lying down:
But since it was Ignatieff himself who theoretically announced an open race in Outremont, Amouzou's removal from the race would appear to raise concerns not only about a disconnect between the values of grassroots supporters and the Libs' inner circle, but also about an inability on Ignatieff's part to oversee even minimal amounts of internal democracy. And it remains to be seen just how much the Libs will lose now that their longtime Outremont campaign manager has decided the party doesn't share his values or those of "ethnic communities" (to use Amouzou's term).
(h/t to DivaRachel.)
Not only was Comlan Amouzou repeatedly pressured to withdraw - a message at least once traced back to Cauchon's camp - but he was apparently denied the ability to sell party memberships in order to try to mount a challenge. And while Amouzou has apparently withdrawn from the nomination battle, he isn't taking the party's slights lying down:
M. Amouzou affirme que la direction du PLC-Q refuse de lui fournir des cartes de membre, ce qui l'empêche de recueillir des appuis.Now, Michael Ignatieff's original fondness for candidate appointments in Quebec might make somewhat more sense in retrospect if his party isn't willing to allow open nomination contests to take place anyway.
Il affirme qu'à au moins une reprise, un appel anonyme lui a demandé de régler ça à l'amiable avec l'entourage de Martin Cauchon. «Cette personne m'a laissé un numéro de téléphone en disant d'appeler là et de m'entendre pour quitter la course. J'ai fait des recherches et ce numéro m'amenait directement au clan Cauchon», affirme M. Amouzou.
Il dit avoir été «intimidé» dans les dernières semaines par des gens au sein du PLC, qu'il refuse de nommer. «Je me pose de très sérieuses questions sur la place des communautés ethniques au sein du Parti libéral du Canada au Québec, dit-il. Ce parti est devenu une chasse gardée pour quelques privilégiés qui agissent en fonction de leurs intérêts et de leurs ambitions au détriment des aspirations des militants de la base. Je ne reconnais plus les véritables valeurs libérales.»
But since it was Ignatieff himself who theoretically announced an open race in Outremont, Amouzou's removal from the race would appear to raise concerns not only about a disconnect between the values of grassroots supporters and the Libs' inner circle, but also about an inability on Ignatieff's part to oversee even minimal amounts of internal democracy. And it remains to be seen just how much the Libs will lose now that their longtime Outremont campaign manager has decided the party doesn't share his values or those of "ethnic communities" (to use Amouzou's term).
(h/t to DivaRachel.)
Friday, September 25, 2009
Just wondering, but...
...to the extent the Libs' Outremont nomination is seen as a proxy battle between Denis Coderre and Martin Cauchon, does Michael Ignatieff's flip-flop today actually resolve anything?
Not that I'd see the decision to hold an open nomination as anything but a massive improvement over an appointment. But surely if Coderre is determined to eliminate a perceived competitor for the mantle of leader-in-waiting, he'll have both the opportunity and the incentive to try to find somebody else to challenge Cauchon for the nomination.
Not that I'd see the decision to hold an open nomination as anything but a massive improvement over an appointment. But surely if Coderre is determined to eliminate a perceived competitor for the mantle of leader-in-waiting, he'll have both the opportunity and the incentive to try to find somebody else to challenge Cauchon for the nomination.
Friday, July 25, 2008
On starting points
For all the talk about the upcoming federal byelections, I'm surprised that one piece of information from earlier reports hasn't received more attention as an indication of what the race in Westmount-Ville Marie will look like:
First off, Lib apologists looking to minimize the Outremont outcome have generally done so by suggesting that it was a one-time event based primarily on Thomas Mulcair's personal popularity and name recognition. If that were true, then one would expect the starting position of any non-Mulcair candidate in Westmount-Ville Marie to be far worse, rather than substantially the same.
Instead, all indications are that Lagacé-Dowson is doing at least as well as Mulcair out of the gate. And while that can be interpreted in a couple of ways (either that Lagacé-Dowson is no less strong than Mulcair as a candidate, or that the NDP has built up its standing such that she doesn't need to carry the party brand as far), it's hard to see how either can be reassuring for the Libs.
And the problems for the Libs are particularly obvious given the organizational differences between Outremont and Westmount-Ville Marie. Remember that another of the Libs' main excuses for their Outremont loss was that Dion appointed Jocelyn Coulon as the party's candidate relatively shortly before the by-election call, allowing Mulcair to build up his presence in the area and leaving the Libs to play catch-up.
In Westmount-Ville Marie, the dynamic is just the opposite. The Libs announced last fall that Marc Garneau would carry their banner, seemingly giving him plenty of time to get the jump on any of his competitors. Meanwhile, Lagacé-Dowson's candidacy was just announced earlier this month, which in principle would leave her with a significant deficit to make up.
Instead, Garneau doesn't appear to have been able to put any distance between himself and Lagacé-Dowson even with nearly a year's head start. And while it's arguable that some work during that time might still give Garneau some advantages at the ballot box which wouldn't show up in the polls (particularly if he's been able to spend more time on voter identification and organization-building), one still has to figure that if Garneau hasn't yet had any success in solidifying Westmount-Ville Marie for the Libs, he'll have an awfully tough time improving matters during the campaign.
Although Westmount has been an unshakable Liberal bastion for decades, deputy NDP leader and Outremont victor Thomas Mulcair said his party's polling suggests that Garneau enjoys a meagre four-point lead over NDP candidate Anne Legace Dowson, a well-known CBC radio personality.Let's leave aside the actual number for now. What seems most significant about the current state of Westmount-Ville Marie is that the NDP is already in what seems to be as strong a position as it was at the start of the Outremont campaign despite a couple of points of distinction which would seemingly give the Libs a far better starting point in Westmount-Ville Marie.
"Anne's numbers are the same as mine were" at the start of the Outremont campaign, Mulcair said in an interview. "We think it's takeable."
First off, Lib apologists looking to minimize the Outremont outcome have generally done so by suggesting that it was a one-time event based primarily on Thomas Mulcair's personal popularity and name recognition. If that were true, then one would expect the starting position of any non-Mulcair candidate in Westmount-Ville Marie to be far worse, rather than substantially the same.
Instead, all indications are that Lagacé-Dowson is doing at least as well as Mulcair out of the gate. And while that can be interpreted in a couple of ways (either that Lagacé-Dowson is no less strong than Mulcair as a candidate, or that the NDP has built up its standing such that she doesn't need to carry the party brand as far), it's hard to see how either can be reassuring for the Libs.
And the problems for the Libs are particularly obvious given the organizational differences between Outremont and Westmount-Ville Marie. Remember that another of the Libs' main excuses for their Outremont loss was that Dion appointed Jocelyn Coulon as the party's candidate relatively shortly before the by-election call, allowing Mulcair to build up his presence in the area and leaving the Libs to play catch-up.
In Westmount-Ville Marie, the dynamic is just the opposite. The Libs announced last fall that Marc Garneau would carry their banner, seemingly giving him plenty of time to get the jump on any of his competitors. Meanwhile, Lagacé-Dowson's candidacy was just announced earlier this month, which in principle would leave her with a significant deficit to make up.
Instead, Garneau doesn't appear to have been able to put any distance between himself and Lagacé-Dowson even with nearly a year's head start. And while it's arguable that some work during that time might still give Garneau some advantages at the ballot box which wouldn't show up in the polls (particularly if he's been able to spend more time on voter identification and organization-building), one still has to figure that if Garneau hasn't yet had any success in solidifying Westmount-Ville Marie for the Libs, he'll have an awfully tough time improving matters during the campaign.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
On spent forces
The Pundits' Guide offers a breakdown of party and candidate spending in last year's set of byelections. And the contrast between the parties which appear to have maxed out their potential and those which have room to grow may offer some important signs as to who has the best chance to improve its standing in future elections:
In contrast, the returns offer up what strikes me as a surprising fact about Thomas Mulcair's win in Outremont, as it was apparently achieved even at a financial disadvantage against his main competition. While Mulcair spent slightly more than Jocelyn Coulon at the candidate level, the Libs managed to outspend the NDP by tens of thousands of dollars of party money even while losing what was supposed to be a safe riding.
And that may be particularly significant based on the imminent by-election in neighbouring Westmount-Ville Marie. While the NDP once again faces the challenge of attacking a former Lib stronghold, the expense numbers suggest that the NDP actually has room to improve somewhat on its relative performance in Outremont - either if the NDP increases its own expenditures to match the Libs' level of spending, or if the Libs themselves can't afford to spend the kind of money they did in an effort to stop Mulcair.
Only Conservative Party candidates spent > 75% of the candidate spending limits in each of the 3 ridings, and in total its candidates spent some 95% of the limit.So what do those numbers say about the parties' positions in Quebec? First off, it's worth noting that the Cons' reasonably strong performances in the two ridings previously held by the Bloc were both based on pouring in significantly more money than the Bloc did. And in Outremont, the Cons managed to see a drop in their share of the vote despite spending nearly as much as the other main parties. Which suggests that the Cons may have relatively little room for growth - particularly in a general election setting where the Bloc is better able to balance out the expenditures involved.
The Bloc spent >75% in 2 of the 3 ridings (total spending of 86% of the candidate limits), while the Liberals and NDP clearly concentrated on Outremont.
In addition to the $254,876 that could be spent by candidates across the 3 ridings, a registered party fielding 3 candidates in that set of by-elections could itself spend an additional $171,997 in support of those campaigns. The amounts spent are reported in Part 3a of the Registered Parties annual returns (you can find the details here, at the Elections Canada site, for the 2007 By-Elections; select the party you're interested in from their drop-down list once you get there).
Again, the Conservative Party spent 92% of its party by-election spending limit. However, interestingly it split the spending mainly between Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean and Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot, the two seats where they wound up being more competitive.
The Liberal Party spent just under half (46%) of its party by-election spending limit; and all but $3800 or so of that was put into Outremont.
The NDP spent 12% of its by-election spending limit, split equally between the three ridings.
Neither the Bloc nor the Green Party reporting (sic) any party-level spending on the three by-election campaigns.
In contrast, the returns offer up what strikes me as a surprising fact about Thomas Mulcair's win in Outremont, as it was apparently achieved even at a financial disadvantage against his main competition. While Mulcair spent slightly more than Jocelyn Coulon at the candidate level, the Libs managed to outspend the NDP by tens of thousands of dollars of party money even while losing what was supposed to be a safe riding.
And that may be particularly significant based on the imminent by-election in neighbouring Westmount-Ville Marie. While the NDP once again faces the challenge of attacking a former Lib stronghold, the expense numbers suggest that the NDP actually has room to improve somewhat on its relative performance in Outremont - either if the NDP increases its own expenditures to match the Libs' level of spending, or if the Libs themselves can't afford to spend the kind of money they did in an effort to stop Mulcair.
Saturday, December 01, 2007
Excuses, excuses
Blogging Horse points out Stephane Dion's laughable take on the Libs' planned change in strategy to actually consider House of Commons votes on their merits. But perhaps even more telling is Dion's set of excuses for Thomas Mulcair's NDP victory in Outremont:
But then there are the actual results in the riding. And the reality is that the Cons' much-ballyhooed candidate dropped 4 points from the party's already-weak position in Outremont. Which means that Dion's first excuse - that improved public perception of the Cons caused Mulcair's win - is demonstrably wrong based on the actual Outremont results.
Mind you, Dion has one more excuse in his arsenal. And while it's perhaps a little tougher to outright disprove empirically, it speaks volumes about the Dion's state of mind (and perhaps that of his party as well):
Yet somehow Dion seems to think that through all that, Outremont's voters somehow didn't know who was running for which party - and if they had, they would never have voted against the Libs.
Which in turn may signal something more as well: a belief on Dion's part that the "Liberal" brand is itself invincible, such that he doesn't have to do more than remind voters who's in his party in order to romp to victory. But that belief would appear to be even more flawed than the Outremont excuses. And if Dion really figures he can count on his party's name to carry him while the NDP catches up to the Libs in the present, then there may be all the more reason to think the Libs are headed for the dustbin of history.
(P)olitical analysts and some grassroots Liberals complained that (Dion) waited too long to appoint a candidate for the September by-election in the Montreal riding of Outremont. His dithering, some said, cost the Liberals a safe seat.Now, that might be an interesting theory if the Cons had been the ones to improve their standing in Outremont - though even that would presumably speak to Lib failures in ensuring an accurate public perception of the Cons.
He blames everyone but himself for the loss to the NDP. First, he said, there is the perception the Harper Tories have given a lot of money to the province.
“I don't think Quebec has received that much from Mr. Harper,” Mr. Dion said. “It's the perception … the sense that he was open to Quebec and that this openness was not only fancy constitutional stuff but concrete delivery.”
But then there are the actual results in the riding. And the reality is that the Cons' much-ballyhooed candidate dropped 4 points from the party's already-weak position in Outremont. Which means that Dion's first excuse - that improved public perception of the Cons caused Mulcair's win - is demonstrably wrong based on the actual Outremont results.
Mind you, Dion has one more excuse in his arsenal. And while it's perhaps a little tougher to outright disprove empirically, it speaks volumes about the Dion's state of mind (and perhaps that of his party as well):
As well, he said that many Quebeckers believed that the NDP candidate, Thomas Mulcair, a former provincial Liberal cabinet minister, was a federal Liberal.I'm not sure how one can even pretend to believe the Libs' loss can be traced in any way to confusion about which candidate ran for which party. After all, virtually all media coverage of the byelection campaign focused explicitly on the NDP's effort to challenge the Libs' traditional dominance in the riding, including by having its entire federal caucus campaign for Mulcair. Meanwhile, there was also plenty of controversy surrounding the Libs' candidate appointment process and internal disputes. And I don't recall anybody being shy about highlighting the party affiliations involved.
Yet somehow Dion seems to think that through all that, Outremont's voters somehow didn't know who was running for which party - and if they had, they would never have voted against the Libs.
Which in turn may signal something more as well: a belief on Dion's part that the "Liberal" brand is itself invincible, such that he doesn't have to do more than remind voters who's in his party in order to romp to victory. But that belief would appear to be even more flawed than the Outremont excuses. And if Dion really figures he can count on his party's name to carry him while the NDP catches up to the Libs in the present, then there may be all the more reason to think the Libs are headed for the dustbin of history.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
By the byelections
I'll check in from my vacation for a couple of quick notes on the federal byelection results. (Though you'll also want to read IP's analysis if you haven't already.)
First, while the NDP's overwhelming byelection victory in Outremont is a huge story in its own right, the vote total involved signals that Mulcair may be able to hold the seat for a long time to come.
Remember that Jean Lapierre won the seat in 2006 with just over 14,000 votes, in a riding where over 40,000 voters went to the polls. Now, Mulcair holds the seat after winning over 11,000 votes with barely half the turnout. And with the NDP's standing obviously improving in Quebec and its voter list presumably far expanded from what it was a year ago, Mulcair should be a safe bet to be able to significantly exceed Lapierre's general election total - along with that of his competitors.
Second, as I'd speculated earlier, the results from the other two ridings may say even more about the Libs' lack of strength in Quebec (and the NDP's relative strength) than the Outremont vote total. While Outremont can be classified as being based on Thomas Mulcair's name rather than relative party strength, the NDP also showed enough party depth to beat out the Libs in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. And even in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, the Libs' star candidate - apparently backed by a number of dissident former Cons - wasn't able to break into double figures.
Now, as IP notes, the story here is at least as much about the strength of the parties which broke through rather than the weakness of the parties in free-fall. And while that's unfortunate in the case of the Cons' rise in Bloc territory, the NDP's successful Outremont push - and ability to push past the Libs in another riding which was a Bloc/Lib battle as recently as 2004 - offers a strong signal that the NDP is on the rise as a long-term choice for progressive Quebec voters.
First, while the NDP's overwhelming byelection victory in Outremont is a huge story in its own right, the vote total involved signals that Mulcair may be able to hold the seat for a long time to come.
Remember that Jean Lapierre won the seat in 2006 with just over 14,000 votes, in a riding where over 40,000 voters went to the polls. Now, Mulcair holds the seat after winning over 11,000 votes with barely half the turnout. And with the NDP's standing obviously improving in Quebec and its voter list presumably far expanded from what it was a year ago, Mulcair should be a safe bet to be able to significantly exceed Lapierre's general election total - along with that of his competitors.
Second, as I'd speculated earlier, the results from the other two ridings may say even more about the Libs' lack of strength in Quebec (and the NDP's relative strength) than the Outremont vote total. While Outremont can be classified as being based on Thomas Mulcair's name rather than relative party strength, the NDP also showed enough party depth to beat out the Libs in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. And even in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, the Libs' star candidate - apparently backed by a number of dissident former Cons - wasn't able to break into double figures.
Now, as IP notes, the story here is at least as much about the strength of the parties which broke through rather than the weakness of the parties in free-fall. And while that's unfortunate in the case of the Cons' rise in Bloc territory, the NDP's successful Outremont push - and ability to push past the Libs in another riding which was a Bloc/Lib battle as recently as 2004 - offers a strong signal that the NDP is on the rise as a long-term choice for progressive Quebec voters.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Listed
As noted by David Akin, Elections Canada has released the official list of candidates for the September 17 Quebec by-elections. And a few points seem worthy of mention.
First off, the Outremont race (which was already the most crowded in Quebec in 2006) is only getting more so. The by-election will feature five independent candidates - one more than in the last general election - to go with the seven party candidates in the race.
Next up, it's fairly clear which smaller parties are looking to make their mark in by-elections. The neo-Rhinos have pushed their way into the race ahead of the Rhinos proper, running candidates in both Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. (I knew something seemed a bit presumptuous about the Canada Votes 2008 results...) Likewise, the Canadian Action Party will also run in Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. Meanwhile, none of the other small parties is taking a run at any of the seats.
Finally, in contrast to the influx of independents in Outremont, the Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean race will lack any independent candidates...which is significant since the former Con candidate, Ghislain Lavoie, had been reported to be considering an indy bid depending on the timing of the by-election. While Lavoie is sitting this race out, though, he may well have enough influence to tip the balance between the Cons and the Libs - and it'll be interesting to see if he takes any sides before the vote.
First off, the Outremont race (which was already the most crowded in Quebec in 2006) is only getting more so. The by-election will feature five independent candidates - one more than in the last general election - to go with the seven party candidates in the race.
Next up, it's fairly clear which smaller parties are looking to make their mark in by-elections. The neo-Rhinos have pushed their way into the race ahead of the Rhinos proper, running candidates in both Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. (I knew something seemed a bit presumptuous about the Canada Votes 2008 results...) Likewise, the Canadian Action Party will also run in Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. Meanwhile, none of the other small parties is taking a run at any of the seats.
Finally, in contrast to the influx of independents in Outremont, the Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean race will lack any independent candidates...which is significant since the former Con candidate, Ghislain Lavoie, had been reported to be considering an indy bid depending on the timing of the by-election. While Lavoie is sitting this race out, though, he may well have enough influence to tip the balance between the Cons and the Libs - and it'll be interesting to see if he takes any sides before the vote.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Out in front
While the Outremont by-election race is only in its early stages, it's hard to see how the contest could have started off better for the NDP and Thomas Mulcair - with two mainstream media stories this weekend noting that Mulcair seems to have the early momentum on the ground. And the fact that Mulcair is appearing in the headlines as a favourite may be just as important as the internal strength the NDP is showing in the riding.
To see why, keep in mind that at the best of times, political perception tends to turn into reality awfully quickly. And the NDP's history in Outremont shows just how a wider media focus can make or break a party's chances of breaking through.
In 2004, NDP candidate Omar Aktouf apparently polled as high as 25% at one point (though I can't verify the number beyond one comment at Election Prediction)...but on election day, Aktouf dropped to 14% of the vote, seemingly in large part due to a spillover effect from the Lib/Bloc fight across the province. In 2006, Leo-Paul Lauzon was a higher-profile candidate than Aktouf and polled as high as 20% a week before the election. But even with the province-wide picture somewhat less clear - which I'd think played some role in his better vote retention - Lauzon's final total of 17% still left him a ways to go to catch up with the Libs and Bloc.
Of course, the Outremont by-election already figured to offer a bit of a different story, as riding-level news would inevitably be more prominent than would be the case under the usual general-election focus on national leaders and campaigns. But the NDP's strategy in Outremont still had to be to get Mulcair in the news early, and make sure to be included as one of the two main contenders for later "horse-race" coverage. And even Mulcair's name recognition may not have done the job in that regard if the he hadn't hit the ground running in the by-election.
Fortunately, though, all indications are that the press has placed Mulcair as at least one of the top two choices in the race (if not the outright favourite). Which means that if there's going to be a late-race polarization, the NDP figures to be on the right side of it for a change. And that can only further improve what already looked to be a strong chance for Mulcair to come away with the seat.
To see why, keep in mind that at the best of times, political perception tends to turn into reality awfully quickly. And the NDP's history in Outremont shows just how a wider media focus can make or break a party's chances of breaking through.
In 2004, NDP candidate Omar Aktouf apparently polled as high as 25% at one point (though I can't verify the number beyond one comment at Election Prediction)...but on election day, Aktouf dropped to 14% of the vote, seemingly in large part due to a spillover effect from the Lib/Bloc fight across the province. In 2006, Leo-Paul Lauzon was a higher-profile candidate than Aktouf and polled as high as 20% a week before the election. But even with the province-wide picture somewhat less clear - which I'd think played some role in his better vote retention - Lauzon's final total of 17% still left him a ways to go to catch up with the Libs and Bloc.
Of course, the Outremont by-election already figured to offer a bit of a different story, as riding-level news would inevitably be more prominent than would be the case under the usual general-election focus on national leaders and campaigns. But the NDP's strategy in Outremont still had to be to get Mulcair in the news early, and make sure to be included as one of the two main contenders for later "horse-race" coverage. And even Mulcair's name recognition may not have done the job in that regard if the he hadn't hit the ground running in the by-election.
Fortunately, though, all indications are that the press has placed Mulcair as at least one of the top two choices in the race (if not the outright favourite). Which means that if there's going to be a late-race polarization, the NDP figures to be on the right side of it for a change. And that can only further improve what already looked to be a strong chance for Mulcair to come away with the seat.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Votes up for grabs
Over the last little while, there's been plenty of discussion about the possibility that the Rhinos (or neo-Rhinos, or Canadian Conservative-Rhino Alliance Party, or...) may rejoin Canada's political scene in the Outremont by-election. But there's been less attention paid to the fact that Outremont voters already had plenty of independents and small-party candidates to choose from in 2006. And in a race that figures to be extremely close, the votes which went to lesser-known candidates in 2006 may well be enough to swing the by-election result. So let's take a look at the parties aside from the main four which ran in the riding in 2006...and what their presence or absence figures to mean for the by-election.
I include the Greens in the "small parties" list based primarily on what seems to be a distinct lack of attention to the by-election through either their riding page or their calendar, which makes it appear likely that they'll get lost in the shuffle in a riding where the NDP, Libs, Bloc and Cons have all been off and running for some time. If the Green plan on putting as much emphasis on Outremont as they apparently did during the 2006 election, that could significantly reduce the pool of voters available to be won by the other parties.
Here are Outremont's 2006 results beyond the top four:
Votes - Party - Candidate
1957 - Green - Francois Pilon
101 - Independent - Eric "Roach" Denis
94 - Progressive Canadian - Philip Paynter
88 - Marxist-Leninist - Linda Sullivan
85 - Independent - Yan Lacombe
35 - Independent - Xavier Rochon
22 - Independent - Regent Millette
For those curious, the latter two vote totals were the lowest in Quebec in 2006. It appears that the high number of independent and small-party candidates resulted in extensive vote-splitting compared to other Quebec ridings...which may hint (not surprisingly) that most of the small-party votes will likely seek out another protest candidate rather than finding their way to the major contenders.
That said, a small percentage of the small-party votes could be enough to swing the by-election. Based on the above chart, 2382 Outremont votes went to parties or independents who haven't yet signalled their interest in the byelection. And there's plenty of room to speculate how those votes could shake out.
The Greens' 2006 candidate, Francois Pilon, was described as an independent businessman. On a fairly quick review, I haven't found much on his other background aside from some expected dedications to the Greens as a party (which has apparently continued into 2007 though some event organization), and his signing onto the Make Poverty History initiative at the time of the campaign.
Needless to say, the parties campaigning in the by-election have to be eager to win the support of Pilon's voters even if he himself is still solidly Green. And there's enough variety even from my limited view of Pilon's background to suggest that all of them may have some reason for optimism: while a focus on poverty and the environment would seem to fit the NDP best, the Bloc and Libs are presumably going after the same types of voters, and it's not out of the question that Pilon's business background could have helped him to win some votes which may otherwise have gone to the Cons.
Next up is filmmaker Eric Denis aka "Roach", who classifies himself as a "self-proclaimed Anarcho-punk". Naturally, that description doesn't lend itself to an affinity for any of the four main parties (especially with Myron Thompson retiring from politics). But a couple of the other individual descriptions among Denis' co-workers sound like relatively plausible target voters for the established parties.
Linda Sullivan and Yan Lacombe had both run previously in Outremont in 2004 (Lacombe for the Marijuana Party rather than as an Independent), and both actually backslid substantially in their vote totals between 2004 and 2006. It wouldn't be surprising for either of the parties involved to seek the media attention that would come with a by-election run. But Lacombe's voting bloc could be a particularly interesting one to watch, both because his 2004 vote total was a respectable 451, and because some of his past partymates have managed to find homes both in the NDP and among the Libs.
Xavier Rochon was a student at the University of Montreal. While I've heard of worse values systems than the one proposed on Rochon's site, there's little (aside from some mention of climate change) to suggest any great affinity for one party over another among Rochon or his voters.
Finally, Regent Millette had apparently run unsuccessfully in a number of previous elections after a career as a teacher. But given an apparently firm stand against parties in politics, one has to assume that none of the main contenders are expecting a boost (however slight) from his few supporters.
Again, it remains to be seen how many votes will shift from the smaller-party or independent candidates to the main contenders in the by-election. But the Outremont race figures to be one where no party can afford to leave any votes on the table - and when even the slightest added bit of organization could make all the difference, one or more of the riding's past candidates could put the eventual winner over the top.
I include the Greens in the "small parties" list based primarily on what seems to be a distinct lack of attention to the by-election through either their riding page or their calendar, which makes it appear likely that they'll get lost in the shuffle in a riding where the NDP, Libs, Bloc and Cons have all been off and running for some time. If the Green plan on putting as much emphasis on Outremont as they apparently did during the 2006 election, that could significantly reduce the pool of voters available to be won by the other parties.
Here are Outremont's 2006 results beyond the top four:
Votes - Party - Candidate
1957 - Green - Francois Pilon
101 - Independent - Eric "Roach" Denis
94 - Progressive Canadian - Philip Paynter
88 - Marxist-Leninist - Linda Sullivan
85 - Independent - Yan Lacombe
35 - Independent - Xavier Rochon
22 - Independent - Regent Millette
For those curious, the latter two vote totals were the lowest in Quebec in 2006. It appears that the high number of independent and small-party candidates resulted in extensive vote-splitting compared to other Quebec ridings...which may hint (not surprisingly) that most of the small-party votes will likely seek out another protest candidate rather than finding their way to the major contenders.
That said, a small percentage of the small-party votes could be enough to swing the by-election. Based on the above chart, 2382 Outremont votes went to parties or independents who haven't yet signalled their interest in the byelection. And there's plenty of room to speculate how those votes could shake out.
The Greens' 2006 candidate, Francois Pilon, was described as an independent businessman. On a fairly quick review, I haven't found much on his other background aside from some expected dedications to the Greens as a party (which has apparently continued into 2007 though some event organization), and his signing onto the Make Poverty History initiative at the time of the campaign.
Needless to say, the parties campaigning in the by-election have to be eager to win the support of Pilon's voters even if he himself is still solidly Green. And there's enough variety even from my limited view of Pilon's background to suggest that all of them may have some reason for optimism: while a focus on poverty and the environment would seem to fit the NDP best, the Bloc and Libs are presumably going after the same types of voters, and it's not out of the question that Pilon's business background could have helped him to win some votes which may otherwise have gone to the Cons.
Next up is filmmaker Eric Denis aka "Roach", who classifies himself as a "self-proclaimed Anarcho-punk". Naturally, that description doesn't lend itself to an affinity for any of the four main parties (especially with Myron Thompson retiring from politics). But a couple of the other individual descriptions among Denis' co-workers sound like relatively plausible target voters for the established parties.
Linda Sullivan and Yan Lacombe had both run previously in Outremont in 2004 (Lacombe for the Marijuana Party rather than as an Independent), and both actually backslid substantially in their vote totals between 2004 and 2006. It wouldn't be surprising for either of the parties involved to seek the media attention that would come with a by-election run. But Lacombe's voting bloc could be a particularly interesting one to watch, both because his 2004 vote total was a respectable 451, and because some of his past partymates have managed to find homes both in the NDP and among the Libs.
Xavier Rochon was a student at the University of Montreal. While I've heard of worse values systems than the one proposed on Rochon's site, there's little (aside from some mention of climate change) to suggest any great affinity for one party over another among Rochon or his voters.
Finally, Regent Millette had apparently run unsuccessfully in a number of previous elections after a career as a teacher. But given an apparently firm stand against parties in politics, one has to assume that none of the main contenders are expecting a boost (however slight) from his few supporters.
Again, it remains to be seen how many votes will shift from the smaller-party or independent candidates to the main contenders in the by-election. But the Outremont race figures to be one where no party can afford to leave any votes on the table - and when even the slightest added bit of organization could make all the difference, one or more of the riding's past candidates could put the eventual winner over the top.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Answering the call
I'm not sure if I'm the only one who half expected the Cons to defy their own leaks and set the latest date possible for the impending Outremont by-election in order to delay another shellacking in the riding, particularly based on Deceivin' Stephen's procrastination in actually calling the by-election.
But now that the date for Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot is set for September 17, it won't be long before we find out whether the Cons have managed to use their stay in power to improve their standing in Quebec. And from this angle, it doesn't seem likely that Harper will enjoy the answer.
But now that the date for Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot is set for September 17, it won't be long before we find out whether the Cons have managed to use their stay in power to improve their standing in Quebec. And from this angle, it doesn't seem likely that Harper will enjoy the answer.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
A welcome focus
The Cons have kicked off their Outremont by-election exercise in futility by declaring that the vote will be about leadership.
Which would figure to be a winning tactic for the party whose leader is the top choice as PM in the area. Likewise for one whose leader has the highest, and only improving, national approval rating out of the federal party leaders. And it can only help if a party's leader also succeeded in winning over his candidate of choice for the riding. But I'm not entirely sure what the Cons think they're doing - other than trying to pour even more money into an even weaker result than their Outremont flop in the 2006 general election.
Which would figure to be a winning tactic for the party whose leader is the top choice as PM in the area. Likewise for one whose leader has the highest, and only improving, national approval rating out of the federal party leaders. And it can only help if a party's leader also succeeded in winning over his candidate of choice for the riding. But I'm not entirely sure what the Cons think they're doing - other than trying to pour even more money into an even weaker result than their Outremont flop in the 2006 general election.
Monday, July 23, 2007
An appointment with disaster
Memo to the Libs' hapless leader: This is why you're better off letting democracy run its course rather than appointing candidates.
If Jocelyn Coulon had faced a nomination meeting, then the apparent split in the local Libs would have been dealt with internally - either resulting in another candidate taking the nomination, or allowing Coulon to claim the support of most of the interested party members in the riding (while Dion himself wouldn't be stuck with any particular blame for the nomination).
But because of the Libs' appointment process, any fallout will be directed solely at Dion himself. And while reversing course now would probably be even worse from a PR standpoint now than simply allowing Dion's mistake to stand, any internal strife among Outremont's Libs can only help Thomas Mulcair's effort to paint the riding orange...and make Dion look like an even less effective leader.
If Jocelyn Coulon had faced a nomination meeting, then the apparent split in the local Libs would have been dealt with internally - either resulting in another candidate taking the nomination, or allowing Coulon to claim the support of most of the interested party members in the riding (while Dion himself wouldn't be stuck with any particular blame for the nomination).
But because of the Libs' appointment process, any fallout will be directed solely at Dion himself. And while reversing course now would probably be even worse from a PR standpoint now than simply allowing Dion's mistake to stand, any internal strife among Outremont's Libs can only help Thomas Mulcair's effort to paint the riding orange...and make Dion look like an even less effective leader.
Monday, July 02, 2007
The Mulcair Effect
While it's no secret that Thomas Mulcair's arrival as the NDP's Quebec spokesman has given the NDP a significantly stronger media presence in the province, I don't think anybody expected him to be publicly talked up by a high-profile Lib as a direct challenger to the Cons. But based on Pablo Rodriguez' comments in the Hill Times challenging Michael Fortier to face the will of Quebec voters, Mulcair appears to have become just that:
But it's still noteworthy that even the Libs are showing some willingness to shine the spotlight on the NDP's star candidate where the result is to highlight Con unaccountability. And that decision could bode well both for the ability of the NDP and the Libs to cooperate to a greater extent, and for the NDP's chances of a major breakthrough in Quebec.
Public Works and Government Services Minister and Quebec Senator Michael Fortier is "like a ghost floating around Parliament," say his political foes on the Hill.Of course, it's entirely likely that Rodriguez will ultimately throw his support behind whichever Lib candidate ends up running in Outremont.
Liberal MP Pablo Rodriguez (Honoré-Mercier, Que.) declared last week of Sen. Fortier of the previous spring House session: "You know he's somewhere around, but you never see him."
Over 102 sitting days of the Senate, where Sen. Fortier represents Rougemont, Que., he has voted only five times all in one day.
Sen. Fortier was unavailable for an interview last week. But his press secretary, Frédéric Baril, said the Public Works minister is hoping his days in the Senate are numbered as he focuses on winning the Quebec riding of Vaudreuil-Soulanges, as highlighted in the website, www.michaelfortier.com.
However, Mr. Rodriguez points out that the federal government could call a byelection for the Montreal riding of Outremont, left vacant by the resignation of former Cabinet minister Jean Lapierre. Sen. Fortier, who also serves as the minister responsible for the Montreal region, could easily throw his hat in that race, said Mr. Rodriguez, who added that the NDP has a candidate–former Quebec Liberal environment minister Thomas Mulcair–ready to run whenever an election is called.
But it's still noteworthy that even the Libs are showing some willingness to shine the spotlight on the NDP's star candidate where the result is to highlight Con unaccountability. And that decision could bode well both for the ability of the NDP and the Libs to cooperate to a greater extent, and for the NDP's chances of a major breakthrough in Quebec.
Saturday, June 23, 2007
Rejected
The NDP's efforts at Quebec recruitment have paid off with the Outremont candidacy (and province-wide presence) of Thomas Mulcair. Meanwhile, the Gazette reports that the Cons' much-discussed attempt to find their own star candidate for Outremont in the person of Marcel Tremblay has met with complete failure:
(Edit: typo.)
Rumours of Marcel Tremblay's Conservative candidacy were greatly exaggerated.Mind you, the Cons will presumably take solace in their inroads into the retiring former paleo-Lib demographic. But when it comes to building any party momentum going into both the anticipated by-election and general elections beyond, all indications are that the Cons' fortunes are on the wane...while the NDP is positioned to make some significant progress.
Or so says Montreal city hall, which ended speculation yesterday about the possibility the city councillor and city executive committee member would run for the Tories in a federal by- election in Outremont riding.
A day after former Quebec environment minister Thomas Mulcair declared he will run in the riding for the New Democratic Party, city hall denied rumours that Tremblay had now decided to bow out of the race.
Tremblay, who is the brother of Mayor Gerald Tremblay, never dropped his hat into the ring in the first place, city hall spokesperson Darren Becker said. "He never was a candidate, and he is not a candidate," Becker said.
(Edit: typo.)
Thursday, January 11, 2007
On calculations
There's been lots of talk today about Jean Lapierre's resignation from his Outremont seat, with most of the discussion focusing on either the slight addition to the Cons' stability, or the prospect of Justin Trudeau as a successor. But I have to wonder whether the ramifications are far greater - as it seems entirely possible that the strategic value of the riding might make the Cons significantly more likely to want a spring election than they would otherwise.
Based on Outremont's past results, the riding looks to be a highly unpredictable one in a general election (even if it's primarily been held by the Libs). The Bloc, NDP and Cons were all within striking distance of Lapierre in 2006, and the seat looks to have at least been in play every election since 1980. Which makes Outremont a fairly plausible pickup opportunity for the Cons (as well as the NDP and the Bloc) in a general election.
But if the seat becomes the focus of a by-election, the equation changes dramatically. Then, the stronger Quebec party structures of the Libs and the Bloc would be turned toward the riding in full. This would likely lead to much more of a two-party race, and do nothing but harm the Cons' claim to be competitive in Quebec. And just in case that wasn't a bad enough outcome for the Cons, if Justin Trudeau does win a by-election for the Libs, then he'd be able to start building his own reputation in the riding and in Ottawa before the next federal election - making Outremont a more difficult battlefield, and potentially giving the Libs an extremely prominent face to sway other Quebec races as well.
Now, I'm sure Harper does place a very high value on staying in power, and it's far from clear that he'll want to give it up lightly. But with an Outremont by-election having so much downside, PMS may well conclude that he's best off taking his chances in a general election sooner rather than dealing with the fallout from a by-election later.
Update: Macleans points out yet another downside to a separate by-election, as it would once again highlight Michael Fortier's reluctance to face any voters.
Based on Outremont's past results, the riding looks to be a highly unpredictable one in a general election (even if it's primarily been held by the Libs). The Bloc, NDP and Cons were all within striking distance of Lapierre in 2006, and the seat looks to have at least been in play every election since 1980. Which makes Outremont a fairly plausible pickup opportunity for the Cons (as well as the NDP and the Bloc) in a general election.
But if the seat becomes the focus of a by-election, the equation changes dramatically. Then, the stronger Quebec party structures of the Libs and the Bloc would be turned toward the riding in full. This would likely lead to much more of a two-party race, and do nothing but harm the Cons' claim to be competitive in Quebec. And just in case that wasn't a bad enough outcome for the Cons, if Justin Trudeau does win a by-election for the Libs, then he'd be able to start building his own reputation in the riding and in Ottawa before the next federal election - making Outremont a more difficult battlefield, and potentially giving the Libs an extremely prominent face to sway other Quebec races as well.
Now, I'm sure Harper does place a very high value on staying in power, and it's far from clear that he'll want to give it up lightly. But with an Outremont by-election having so much downside, PMS may well conclude that he's best off taking his chances in a general election sooner rather than dealing with the fallout from a by-election later.
Update: Macleans points out yet another downside to a separate by-election, as it would once again highlight Michael Fortier's reluctance to face any voters.
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