On breakthrough possibilities

Steve has covered the Montreal portion of today's newly-released Environics leadership poll. But while Jack Layton's standing as the top choice for Prime Minister may be limited to Montreal for now, the national numbers may hold even more promise for the NDP and its leader:

While Harper's approval rating has slipped across the country to 48 per cent, it's lowest level since his election and the first time Environics has seen it below 50 per cent, Dion hasn't been able to capitalize. Only 16 per cent of Canadians see him as the best choice for PM, compared with 36 per cent for Harper and 20 per cent for Layton.

That standing makes Layton the sole leader to gain ground in the "best PM" numbers, as Harper lost a point and Dion was stagnant.

But perhaps even more significantly for possible future moves, Layton has emerged for the first time as the clear leader in public approval. Indeed, based on the full Environics poll reults, Layton alone managed to improve his standing with the Canadian public in June, pushing back toward approval levels which he last held consistently shortly after the 2006 election at 56%.

Meanwhile, every other leader saw a significant drop. Gilles Duceppe had already started dropping from his historical levels before his abortive departure, and fell 3 points to 53%; as noted by the article, Deceivin' Stephen is below 50% for the first time after plummeting 6 points; and more modest losses now place Elizabeth May and Stephane Dion at 42% and 38% respectively.

Of course, Layton's strong numbers will surely make him a target over the course of the summer. But they also suggest that Canadians are likely to be highly receptive to what he has to say - and if the public continues to grow ever more wary of the other federal leaders, then it may not be long before Layton ranks as the top choice for PM across far more territory than Montreal alone.