I was going to post about the 'Riders' offseason...until Stephen LaRose said pretty much everything I planned to say. So instead, I'll stick to pointing out where I'd question or clarify LaRose's take.
Simply put, I think he's right to compare the current 'Rider team to the 1976 version as a needlessly old group assembled with too little regard for the team's longer-term development. But I also think that the current roster is closer to 1976 than 1977: with one important caveat, the veterans aren't so far over the hill that the team figures to suffer.
And indeed, there's still at least some room for improvement over last season. The offense has plenty of weapons if the offensive line stays healthy and develops together (as I don't see Patrick Neufeld being anything more than a backup if a unit of Fulton/LaBatte/Picard/Best/Heenan plays to its potential), and the defence has far more playmakers than last year's version if John Chick and Ricky Foley have anything left in the tank.
With that in mind, I'd place the 'Riders' expected record - given fairly good health - around 10-8 (with plenty of early wins and a few more late losses). But that may not lead the 'Riders to continue the trend of teams making and winning the Grey Cup at home, particularly if the veterans wear down over the course of the season.
And the 'Riders are facing some ugly risks further down their depth chart. The biggest problem with filling out one's roster by thumbing through past CFL yearbooks is that there are few young players with any prospect of stepping into a bigger role to replace anybody who gets hurt (with the receiver position looking like the lone exception). Darian Durant's health is an absolute must for any 'Rider hopes; Neufeld may not be a part of the ideal offensive line, but without him the team has no margin for error with its remaining unit; an already-small defensive line could reach a critical point with a single injury to Keith Shologan or Tearrius George; and the linebacking corps is comprised almost entirely of players who have washed out elsewhere.
Now, if there's a rational strategy to be pursued with the current roster, it might well involve overpaying some veterans early, being prepared to trade or cut anybody who doesn't play up to his past peak level in the first few weeks, and encouraging the remaining vets to mentor a wave of new players around mid-season to set the 'Riders up for both a playoff drive and seasons to come. But given Brendan Taman's preference for pricey vets and lack of focus on player development, the plan instead seems to be to ride the new arrivals as far as possible - with no backup plan in sight.
That might well lead to the type of panic trade feared by LaRose - but a precarious cap situation figures to limit how many more vets the 'Riders can take on during the season. Which means that the best hope may be for the team's new imports to join the front office in failing to notice that it's no longer the late aughts - and stay healthy and productive accordingly.
Showing posts with label keith shologan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label keith shologan. Show all posts
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging
Sadly, due to the 'Riders' choice to play most of their veterans in Friday's loss to Calgary, we didn't get to learn much about the team's prospects. But if nothing else, the loss did prove educational about the players currently holding down a few lineup spots.
Simply put, the 'Riders' defence is in dire need of some new blood. In previous weeks the most obvious problem tended to be ineffective tackling, particularly by smaller linebackers trying to bring down bigger running backs. But Friday a new issue emerged - as the Stamps' offensive line created so much space that there often wasn't a defender in position to make a tackle until after Jon Cornish had picked up a first down already.
Now, if the 'Riders had been playing rookies in their key run-stopping roles, that might have raised questions as to whether the incumbents might have some chance to improve. But CFL veterans like Dario Romero and Tearrius George don't have any excuse: both are in the lineup precisely because they're supposed to be able to contribute now (and indeed to do so effectively enough to make up for being highly penalty-prone). And while Keith Shologan should undoubtedly one of 'Riders' key defensive building blocks, I have to wonder whether the team needs to reconsider its order to have him slim down a couple of seasons ago: he hasn't been able to use his quickness to avoid a lot of blocks this season in particular, and a bulky run-stopper would seem to be a must for the 'Riders to avoid getting trampled as they were on Friday.
And a similar story applies at the linebacker position. The likes of James Patrick and Sean Lucas might do just fine handling smaller running backs in one-on-one tackling situations. But Saskatchewan's three Western rivals all feature big, strong, young non-import backs who figure to carry the load for a long time to come - and the 'Riders can't afford to counter them with linebackers who are vulnerable to being straight-armed into submission.
Of course, I'll hope that the next two games feature a few less stories as to how the 'Riders' vets need upgrading, and few more indications of whether the team's younger players are up to the job. But we may as well learn what we can from another disappointment - and about the best we can take from Friday's game is that there's ample room to improve.
Update: Stephen LaRose sees some bigger issues.
Simply put, the 'Riders' defence is in dire need of some new blood. In previous weeks the most obvious problem tended to be ineffective tackling, particularly by smaller linebackers trying to bring down bigger running backs. But Friday a new issue emerged - as the Stamps' offensive line created so much space that there often wasn't a defender in position to make a tackle until after Jon Cornish had picked up a first down already.
Now, if the 'Riders had been playing rookies in their key run-stopping roles, that might have raised questions as to whether the incumbents might have some chance to improve. But CFL veterans like Dario Romero and Tearrius George don't have any excuse: both are in the lineup precisely because they're supposed to be able to contribute now (and indeed to do so effectively enough to make up for being highly penalty-prone). And while Keith Shologan should undoubtedly one of 'Riders' key defensive building blocks, I have to wonder whether the team needs to reconsider its order to have him slim down a couple of seasons ago: he hasn't been able to use his quickness to avoid a lot of blocks this season in particular, and a bulky run-stopper would seem to be a must for the 'Riders to avoid getting trampled as they were on Friday.
And a similar story applies at the linebacker position. The likes of James Patrick and Sean Lucas might do just fine handling smaller running backs in one-on-one tackling situations. But Saskatchewan's three Western rivals all feature big, strong, young non-import backs who figure to carry the load for a long time to come - and the 'Riders can't afford to counter them with linebackers who are vulnerable to being straight-armed into submission.
Of course, I'll hope that the next two games feature a few less stories as to how the 'Riders' vets need upgrading, and few more indications of whether the team's younger players are up to the job. But we may as well learn what we can from another disappointment - and about the best we can take from Friday's game is that there's ample room to improve.
Update: Stephen LaRose sees some bigger issues.
Sunday, July 03, 2011
Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging
The start of the 'Riders' season is just around the corner, and there doesn't seem to be much doubt about the main areas of uncertainty for the team. But while Rob Vanstone nicely identifies the question marks, I'll go into a bit more detail about the possible answers.
To start with, let's note why other areas of the team don't figure to be in doubt at this point. At plenty of positions, the team's strategy has been to bring back a good number of past players, and then to fill in holes with experienced CFL players whose upside and downside should both be relatively limited. So the offensive backfield (for example) should see fairly little change other than having Neal Hughes and Graeme Bell perform much the same role that Chris Szarka previously played, while the offensive line should be able to hold its own without having any real prospect of dominating. Likewise on defence, the team's run support and secondary both look solid but not much more.
That leaves just a few areas which will figure to make the difference for the 'Riders - either positively or negatively. So let's take a look at those in turn.
Receivers
Saskatchewan's generally-strong receiving corps obviously makes for the position with the most upheaval, with two of the team's top three receivers gone at least to start the season. Which means that the 'Riders probably can't take much for granted: about the best they can count on at the start of the season is to have one elite receiver in Weston Dressler, and two solid depth types in Chris Getzlaf and Cary Koch (once he's back from his thumb injury).
But the available playing time also means the 'Riders can test out a number of possible improvements - just as the team was able to use a spate of injuries in 2008 to develop the strong group of receivers that's emerged over the past couple of seasons. And there are at least half a dozen ways for the 'Riders' current group of receivers to get better in a hurry.
1. Chris Getzlaf emerging as a go-to receiver. Getzlaf has already shown that he can put together jaw-dropping single-game performances, particularly when he's had the chance to take over Fantuz' usual role for a game or two at a time due to injury or excessive defensive focus. (See e.g. Getzlaf's 300+ yards in two games against the Stampeders last season.) But he hasn't yet managed to keep up the pace over the course of a full season - and he may never get a better chance to prove that he can serve as a CFL team's primary target.
2. Jordan Sisco establishing himself as a CFL starter. It's a bit worrisome that Sisco seems to be behind a number of new imports on the depth chart despite having had an opportunity to experience the CFL last season. But Sisco shouldn't take a back seat to Terrence Nunn or Ernie Wheelwright in terms of raw talent, and the ratio bonus involved in developing Sisco should make him one of the 'Riders' top priorities for the new season.
3. Jason Clermont turning back the clock. No, the 'Riders can't expect Clermont to be among the league's receiving leaders at this stage of his career. But he was effective when asked to make tough catches late in the 2010 season, and his ability to serve as a reliable #3 or 4 might be crucial if the team's younger receivers disappoint.
4/5. Ernie Wheelwright and/or Terrence Nunn breaking out as a new CFL star. Obviously the best-case scenario for the 'Riders would see their new arrivals dominate from day one. And while Wheelwright and Nunn have less experience with Canadian rules generally and the CFL specifically than the players ahead of them on this list, it's well within the realm of possibility that either or both could do what Dressler managed in 2008 by turning a first shot at playing time into an elite season.
6. Rob Bagg returning healthy to end the season. Yes, ideally Bagg would be able to beat the predictions that he'll be gone for the season. But the team's focus needs to be on "healthy" rather than "returning": the 'Riders probably have enough depth to get by without Bagg, and can't afford to have him injure himself again by coming back too soon.
7. Andy Fantuz returning from the NFL. Fantuz' return would have a bigger effect on the 'Riders' offence than any of the other prospects. But the possibility is entirely out of the team's hands - so its best bet is to look to develop the strongest group of receivers it can as the season progresses, and see Fantuz as nothing more than a bonus if he does turn up late in the season.
In sum, the 'Riders have at least seven chances to develop their receiving corps alongside their existing base. And their success in doing so will likely be the most crucial factor for the team this season.
With a hit rate of 0 or 1, the 'Riders' passing game will be a weakness rather than a strength, and the team might struggle just to make the playoffs. With 2 or 3, Darian Durant will have a puncher's chance to outscore any team in the league, projecting the 'Riders to their usual place just above .500. And anything more could turn Saskatchewan's offence into the most terrifying force any defensive coordinator will face on the season.
Pass Rush
The 'Riders ability to get to opposing quarterbacks has gone from a major strength a couple of seasons back to a probable weakness now. Long gone are John Chick and Stevie Baggs, who could make life miserable for any offence based on their individual pass-rushing skills - and with Gary Etcheverry's blitzing and confusing defence replaced by Richie Hall's steady-as-she-goes philosophy, it'll be tough to count on the 'Riders' defensive system to generate pressure.
That means that it'll be up to individual defenders to find a way to get to the quarterback while fitting into Hall's system. So who has a chance of getting that job done?
With Brent Hawkins out to start the season, the most obvious possibility is Montez Murphy - who has been spectacular in short spurts, but needs to show he can exert consistent pressure. But the best hope may be for the 'Riders to generate pressure from some unexpected positions, rather than relying on Murphy, Luc Mullinder and Tearrius George to do much damage on their own.
One possibility on that front is for the 'Riders to focus on using their defensive tackles to get to the quarterback. Dario Romero may be penalty-prone and slightly past his prime, but he's been one of the better line-busters in the league over the past few seasons. And if Keith Shologan can incorporate some of Romero's tricks into his repertoire, then the 'Riders can make up for a middling set of ends with pressure across the entire line.
Or alternatively, Hall can look at setting loose the 'Riders' linebackers and secondary a bit more often. Of course we'll expect to see Jerrell Freeman unleashed after his breakout season in 2010, but the most important factor in generating pressure from across the field will be unpredictability rather than a single player's skills.
Again, there are a few options for the 'Riders to get to opposing quarterbacks - along with some hope for late-season reinforcements as Brent Hawkins returns from injury. But the pass rush looks to be more a matter of downside than upside, as a lack of pressure early in the season could leave the 'Riders in a hole that can't be escaped later on.
Special Teams
After Brendan Taman made special teams the 'Riders' top off-season priority (using three draft picks on special-teams players and making Graeme Bell and Tristan Jackson two of his top veteran acquisitions), one would have hoped for a bit more stability going into the season.
Instead, the 'Riders look to have a glaring question mark at place-kicker until Luca Congi gets healthy. But while that looks to be a weakness no matter what, the area where there's some chance of turning a weakness into a strength lies in the 'Riders' coverage teams.
At the very least, Craig Butler has joined Bell as an addition to the 'Riders' kick coverage teams. But more importantly, there's some reason for hope that Bell and new special-teams coordinator Craig Dickenson can develop Butler and the younger, more athletic players already on the 'Riders (Stu Foord, Shomari Williams, Sisco, Tamon George, etc.) into a disciplined and cohesive unit.
Meanwhile, the biggest issue for Jackson may be the number of roles he's asked to play. If the 'Riders try to press him into duty in the secondary, then it seems all too likely that he'll burn out even faster than returners normally do, leaving the return teams as a continued weakness. But if he's allowed to specialize as a returner and occasional offensive weapon, then the 'Riders should have their most effective returner in years.
Competition
Based on those question marks, the most reasonable expectation for the 'Riders is to end up in the same range as the previous couple of seasons, with a baseline expectation likely in the range of 10-8.
The 'Riders' main competition again figures to be the Stampeders, who should be the favourites in the division even after their season-opening loss to Toronto. The Eskimos look to be approaching contention again after their multi-year lull, with a high-upside receiving corps featuring Fred Stamps, Adarius Bowman, Chris Bauman, Jason Barnes and Nate Coehoorn looking particularly dangerous. And the Lions still have some extremely talented players, but have aged enough as a team (both in their existing players and their off-season acquisitions) to project into last place for now.
But then, nothing can be taken for granted in the CFL: one injury to a Burris or a Durant or a breakout season by a Cory Boyd can change a team's expectations in a hurry. And we'll find out soon whether the 'Riders can follow up another close-but-not-quite season with a run to the top of the West and the league.
[Edit: fixed typo.]
To start with, let's note why other areas of the team don't figure to be in doubt at this point. At plenty of positions, the team's strategy has been to bring back a good number of past players, and then to fill in holes with experienced CFL players whose upside and downside should both be relatively limited. So the offensive backfield (for example) should see fairly little change other than having Neal Hughes and Graeme Bell perform much the same role that Chris Szarka previously played, while the offensive line should be able to hold its own without having any real prospect of dominating. Likewise on defence, the team's run support and secondary both look solid but not much more.
That leaves just a few areas which will figure to make the difference for the 'Riders - either positively or negatively. So let's take a look at those in turn.
Receivers
Saskatchewan's generally-strong receiving corps obviously makes for the position with the most upheaval, with two of the team's top three receivers gone at least to start the season. Which means that the 'Riders probably can't take much for granted: about the best they can count on at the start of the season is to have one elite receiver in Weston Dressler, and two solid depth types in Chris Getzlaf and Cary Koch (once he's back from his thumb injury).
But the available playing time also means the 'Riders can test out a number of possible improvements - just as the team was able to use a spate of injuries in 2008 to develop the strong group of receivers that's emerged over the past couple of seasons. And there are at least half a dozen ways for the 'Riders' current group of receivers to get better in a hurry.
1. Chris Getzlaf emerging as a go-to receiver. Getzlaf has already shown that he can put together jaw-dropping single-game performances, particularly when he's had the chance to take over Fantuz' usual role for a game or two at a time due to injury or excessive defensive focus. (See e.g. Getzlaf's 300+ yards in two games against the Stampeders last season.) But he hasn't yet managed to keep up the pace over the course of a full season - and he may never get a better chance to prove that he can serve as a CFL team's primary target.
2. Jordan Sisco establishing himself as a CFL starter. It's a bit worrisome that Sisco seems to be behind a number of new imports on the depth chart despite having had an opportunity to experience the CFL last season. But Sisco shouldn't take a back seat to Terrence Nunn or Ernie Wheelwright in terms of raw talent, and the ratio bonus involved in developing Sisco should make him one of the 'Riders' top priorities for the new season.
3. Jason Clermont turning back the clock. No, the 'Riders can't expect Clermont to be among the league's receiving leaders at this stage of his career. But he was effective when asked to make tough catches late in the 2010 season, and his ability to serve as a reliable #3 or 4 might be crucial if the team's younger receivers disappoint.
4/5. Ernie Wheelwright and/or Terrence Nunn breaking out as a new CFL star. Obviously the best-case scenario for the 'Riders would see their new arrivals dominate from day one. And while Wheelwright and Nunn have less experience with Canadian rules generally and the CFL specifically than the players ahead of them on this list, it's well within the realm of possibility that either or both could do what Dressler managed in 2008 by turning a first shot at playing time into an elite season.
6. Rob Bagg returning healthy to end the season. Yes, ideally Bagg would be able to beat the predictions that he'll be gone for the season. But the team's focus needs to be on "healthy" rather than "returning": the 'Riders probably have enough depth to get by without Bagg, and can't afford to have him injure himself again by coming back too soon.
7. Andy Fantuz returning from the NFL. Fantuz' return would have a bigger effect on the 'Riders' offence than any of the other prospects. But the possibility is entirely out of the team's hands - so its best bet is to look to develop the strongest group of receivers it can as the season progresses, and see Fantuz as nothing more than a bonus if he does turn up late in the season.
In sum, the 'Riders have at least seven chances to develop their receiving corps alongside their existing base. And their success in doing so will likely be the most crucial factor for the team this season.
With a hit rate of 0 or 1, the 'Riders' passing game will be a weakness rather than a strength, and the team might struggle just to make the playoffs. With 2 or 3, Darian Durant will have a puncher's chance to outscore any team in the league, projecting the 'Riders to their usual place just above .500. And anything more could turn Saskatchewan's offence into the most terrifying force any defensive coordinator will face on the season.
Pass Rush
The 'Riders ability to get to opposing quarterbacks has gone from a major strength a couple of seasons back to a probable weakness now. Long gone are John Chick and Stevie Baggs, who could make life miserable for any offence based on their individual pass-rushing skills - and with Gary Etcheverry's blitzing and confusing defence replaced by Richie Hall's steady-as-she-goes philosophy, it'll be tough to count on the 'Riders' defensive system to generate pressure.
That means that it'll be up to individual defenders to find a way to get to the quarterback while fitting into Hall's system. So who has a chance of getting that job done?
With Brent Hawkins out to start the season, the most obvious possibility is Montez Murphy - who has been spectacular in short spurts, but needs to show he can exert consistent pressure. But the best hope may be for the 'Riders to generate pressure from some unexpected positions, rather than relying on Murphy, Luc Mullinder and Tearrius George to do much damage on their own.
One possibility on that front is for the 'Riders to focus on using their defensive tackles to get to the quarterback. Dario Romero may be penalty-prone and slightly past his prime, but he's been one of the better line-busters in the league over the past few seasons. And if Keith Shologan can incorporate some of Romero's tricks into his repertoire, then the 'Riders can make up for a middling set of ends with pressure across the entire line.
Or alternatively, Hall can look at setting loose the 'Riders' linebackers and secondary a bit more often. Of course we'll expect to see Jerrell Freeman unleashed after his breakout season in 2010, but the most important factor in generating pressure from across the field will be unpredictability rather than a single player's skills.
Again, there are a few options for the 'Riders to get to opposing quarterbacks - along with some hope for late-season reinforcements as Brent Hawkins returns from injury. But the pass rush looks to be more a matter of downside than upside, as a lack of pressure early in the season could leave the 'Riders in a hole that can't be escaped later on.
Special Teams
After Brendan Taman made special teams the 'Riders' top off-season priority (using three draft picks on special-teams players and making Graeme Bell and Tristan Jackson two of his top veteran acquisitions), one would have hoped for a bit more stability going into the season.
Instead, the 'Riders look to have a glaring question mark at place-kicker until Luca Congi gets healthy. But while that looks to be a weakness no matter what, the area where there's some chance of turning a weakness into a strength lies in the 'Riders' coverage teams.
At the very least, Craig Butler has joined Bell as an addition to the 'Riders' kick coverage teams. But more importantly, there's some reason for hope that Bell and new special-teams coordinator Craig Dickenson can develop Butler and the younger, more athletic players already on the 'Riders (Stu Foord, Shomari Williams, Sisco, Tamon George, etc.) into a disciplined and cohesive unit.
Meanwhile, the biggest issue for Jackson may be the number of roles he's asked to play. If the 'Riders try to press him into duty in the secondary, then it seems all too likely that he'll burn out even faster than returners normally do, leaving the return teams as a continued weakness. But if he's allowed to specialize as a returner and occasional offensive weapon, then the 'Riders should have their most effective returner in years.
Competition
Based on those question marks, the most reasonable expectation for the 'Riders is to end up in the same range as the previous couple of seasons, with a baseline expectation likely in the range of 10-8.
The 'Riders' main competition again figures to be the Stampeders, who should be the favourites in the division even after their season-opening loss to Toronto. The Eskimos look to be approaching contention again after their multi-year lull, with a high-upside receiving corps featuring Fred Stamps, Adarius Bowman, Chris Bauman, Jason Barnes and Nate Coehoorn looking particularly dangerous. And the Lions still have some extremely talented players, but have aged enough as a team (both in their existing players and their off-season acquisitions) to project into last place for now.
But then, nothing can be taken for granted in the CFL: one injury to a Burris or a Durant or a breakout season by a Cory Boyd can change a team's expectations in a hurry. And we'll find out soon whether the 'Riders can follow up another close-but-not-quite season with a run to the top of the West and the league.
[Edit: fixed typo.]
Monday, November 29, 2010
Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging
Another year, another close call in the Grey Cup as the Saskatchewan Roughriders fell three points short of the Alouettes yesterday. But the good news is that there are obvious areas where the team can improve for next season without affecting its overall game plan.
Indeed, one of the 'Riders' trouble spots for most of this season looks to have turned into a late-season strength - and promises to get all the better going into next year. For much of 2010, the team had trouble getting to opposing quarterbacks even in Gary Etcheverry's high-pressure system. But in the last few games, Jerrell Freeman's emergence and Brent Hawkins' return has gave the team the push it needed to frustrate even the league's top two veteran quarterbacks. And if Keith Shologan's playoff results hold up and Shomari Williams can improve from his rookie-season difficulties, the 'Riders may be back to having one of the league's top pass-rushing units from the start of 2011.
And indeed based on yesterday's game, there doesn't seem to be much missing from Saskatchewan's defence. The 'Riders clamped down on Avon Cobourne in addition to giving Anthony Calvillo fits for most of the game - and their biggest early-game weakness (tackling bigger receivers like Jamel Richardson and S.J. Green after a catch) was thoroughly fixed by the end.
Unfortunately, while the defence put the 'Riders in a position to win, the offence couldn't get the job done. And while it's tough to blame Darian Durant for his interception which effectively ended the game, there's a bit more reason for concern about the offence's weak production through the middle of the game when it had a chance to build on the 'Riders' only lead.
After all, the 'Riders actually deployed a better ground attack than they had in ages - which in theory should open up opportunities for Durant. But the passing attack didn't land a single deep play all game (the big gainers to Jason Clermont, Cary Koch and Andy Fantuz were all on catch-and-run plays), and was inconsistent at best on short- and mid-range routes. And that kept the 'Riders from either building an advantage, or taking back the game at the end.
But that looks to be more an issue of execution than personnel. So aside from maybe looking at making the line a bit more athletic for next season and working Jordan Sisco into a seven-receiver rotation, I'd doubt the 'Riders will want to make any big changes from a unit that showed the ability to dominate at times.
Meanwhile, the 'Riders' special teams had about as good a game as could have been expected. Yes, Montreal converted on a fake punt - but that was due to a missed tackle by Hawkins in a one-on-one matchup, not a problem with the coverage scheme. And the return games were close enough to even that there isn't much reason for concern.
That said, it's worth noting that while the special teams mostly executed what they were asked to do, the 'Riders' loss can be traced to limitations in the coaches' confidence. Before the Calgary game, one of my observations was that a lack of confidence in a team's kicking game can be huge when every point counts. And yesterday, the 'Riders punted on third downs from the Montreal 38 and 41 - leading to one point on the board, and five missing from what the team could have posted with a successful field goal unit.
Of course, kicks from that distance aren't gimmes for anybody in the CFL - as Damon Duval showed with his two misses. And even if Luca Congi hadn't been hurt, the 'Riders' normal kicker wouldn't figure to be a lock from those distances.
But it can't escape notice that despite using two roster spots on kickers including an import, the 'Riders didn't have enough confidence to even try a field goal from 45 yards. (Which might not have been the case if they'd jumped on, say, Justin Medlock when he was available.) And the points most certainly would have come in handy at the end.
The good news is that once the disappointment from yesterday wears off, there's plenty to look forward to for the 'Riders going into 2011. But it's always frustrating to fall just short, especially when that's due at least in part to problems which may well have been within the team's control. And hopefully the team will learn from its roster construction issues to take full advantage of another chance next year.
Indeed, one of the 'Riders' trouble spots for most of this season looks to have turned into a late-season strength - and promises to get all the better going into next year. For much of 2010, the team had trouble getting to opposing quarterbacks even in Gary Etcheverry's high-pressure system. But in the last few games, Jerrell Freeman's emergence and Brent Hawkins' return has gave the team the push it needed to frustrate even the league's top two veteran quarterbacks. And if Keith Shologan's playoff results hold up and Shomari Williams can improve from his rookie-season difficulties, the 'Riders may be back to having one of the league's top pass-rushing units from the start of 2011.
And indeed based on yesterday's game, there doesn't seem to be much missing from Saskatchewan's defence. The 'Riders clamped down on Avon Cobourne in addition to giving Anthony Calvillo fits for most of the game - and their biggest early-game weakness (tackling bigger receivers like Jamel Richardson and S.J. Green after a catch) was thoroughly fixed by the end.
Unfortunately, while the defence put the 'Riders in a position to win, the offence couldn't get the job done. And while it's tough to blame Darian Durant for his interception which effectively ended the game, there's a bit more reason for concern about the offence's weak production through the middle of the game when it had a chance to build on the 'Riders' only lead.
After all, the 'Riders actually deployed a better ground attack than they had in ages - which in theory should open up opportunities for Durant. But the passing attack didn't land a single deep play all game (the big gainers to Jason Clermont, Cary Koch and Andy Fantuz were all on catch-and-run plays), and was inconsistent at best on short- and mid-range routes. And that kept the 'Riders from either building an advantage, or taking back the game at the end.
But that looks to be more an issue of execution than personnel. So aside from maybe looking at making the line a bit more athletic for next season and working Jordan Sisco into a seven-receiver rotation, I'd doubt the 'Riders will want to make any big changes from a unit that showed the ability to dominate at times.
Meanwhile, the 'Riders' special teams had about as good a game as could have been expected. Yes, Montreal converted on a fake punt - but that was due to a missed tackle by Hawkins in a one-on-one matchup, not a problem with the coverage scheme. And the return games were close enough to even that there isn't much reason for concern.
That said, it's worth noting that while the special teams mostly executed what they were asked to do, the 'Riders' loss can be traced to limitations in the coaches' confidence. Before the Calgary game, one of my observations was that a lack of confidence in a team's kicking game can be huge when every point counts. And yesterday, the 'Riders punted on third downs from the Montreal 38 and 41 - leading to one point on the board, and five missing from what the team could have posted with a successful field goal unit.
Of course, kicks from that distance aren't gimmes for anybody in the CFL - as Damon Duval showed with his two misses. And even if Luca Congi hadn't been hurt, the 'Riders' normal kicker wouldn't figure to be a lock from those distances.
But it can't escape notice that despite using two roster spots on kickers including an import, the 'Riders didn't have enough confidence to even try a field goal from 45 yards. (Which might not have been the case if they'd jumped on, say, Justin Medlock when he was available.) And the points most certainly would have come in handy at the end.
The good news is that once the disappointment from yesterday wears off, there's plenty to look forward to for the 'Riders going into 2011. But it's always frustrating to fall just short, especially when that's due at least in part to problems which may well have been within the team's control. And hopefully the team will learn from its roster construction issues to take full advantage of another chance next year.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging - NFL Prospects
I won't spend a lot of time discussing the developments surrounding Eric Tillman this past week, as I'd think there was a reasonable case to either keep Tillman or ask him to resign as eventually happened. But particularly now that Tillman is out of the picture, the 'Riders have to be looking at which of their 2009 members they can build around in the longer term as a new GM takes charge of player recruitment, and which ones they need to be ready to replace at any time.
So let's take a look at one of the major questions facing the 'Riders next year and beyond: which of the 2009 'Riders are most likely to stick in the NFL over the next few seasons rather than forming part of Saskatchewan's long-term plans? (Needless to say, the question is particularly timely in the wake of the Indianapolis Colts' signing of John Chick, who'd be #1 on this list.)
1. Louie Sakoda - P/K
Based on his college production as a placekicker, it's surprising he was ever available for the 'Riders to sign last year as an emergency replacement for punter Jamie Boreham. And after taking a bit of time to adjust to the CFL, he performed extremely well on punts and kickoffs by the end of 2009. So it'll be a surprise if Sakoda doesn't manage to work his way into the NFL in the longer term - meaning that the 'Riders shouldn't expect him to be around for long.
2. Weston Dressler - WR
Dressler may be well below some of the players lower on this list in his likelihood of actually winning a starting job in the NFL: surprisingly few teams seem to have learned from Wes Welker's example that an undersized receiver with speed can be a hugely valuable weapon, and the team which actually has Welker in its lineup already has an understudy ready. But I'd have to like Dressler's chance of making good on any opportunity he gets.
3. Joel Bell - OT
Bell may not have the CFL reputation of the likes of Dressler or Fantuz. But he has great size and athleticism for an offensive lineman, and was able to play effectively in a starting role within mere weeks of first being exposed to the CFL game. And at age 24, he has many years ahead of him to potentially make a similar impression south of the border.
4. Andy Fantuz - WR
The working theory at the moment seems to be that Fantuz won't make it in the NFL due to his lack of speed. But I have to wonder whether he'll effectively get a shot at two positions: even if his speed won't play at receiver (which itself can't be taken as a given), at a sturdy 6'4" he's wouldn't figure to be more than a season in the weight room away from being able to fit in at tight end.
5. Stevie Baggs - DE
Baggs' strengths in the CFL may not translate entirely into the NFL, as he's almost certainly too small to last as a defensive lineman south of the border and may not slide in as a pass-rushing linebacker as easily as Cameron Wake did this year. But he's also been a highly effective special-teamer for the 'Riders, and would seem to have a strong chance of holding his own in that role.
6. Keith Shologan - DL
Shologan stuck long enough with the San Diego Chargers in 2008 to miss the first half of the CFL season, and has since developed his game extremely quickly with the 'Riders as an effective starter following Scott Schultz' retirement. But note one possible hitch for Shologan, as the 'Riders' preference for quickness on the defensive line may keep him from bulking up to the size which an NFL team might prefer in a tackle.
7. Luca Congi - K
On demonstrated talent alone, Congi would be at least two places higher on this list. But Congi signed a two-year extension in October without any suggestion that he sought a Fantuz-style clause allowing him to test the NFL waters - meaning that it's questionable whether he's even looking to make the jump, and that it'll be some time before he gets the chance. As a result, he ranks lowest on the list of anybody who has a relatively clear path to the NFL with his current skill set.
8. Adam Nicolson - WR
The catch for Nicolson is that he obviously won't get much of an NFL shot before he proves himself in the CFL first - and as long as he's behind Fantuz, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf among non-import receivers, there aren't going to be many passes thrown his way to allow that to happen. But his size and athleticism give him a better chance than Bagg or Getzlaf of eventually earning an NFL job, particularly if he gets to take over Fantuz' role.
9. Renauld Williams - LB
Williams has already been an NFL journeyman for several years, and thus can't be seen as somebody who's just needed an opportunity to show his stuff. But there would figure to be some chance that his experience as a starting (and starring CFL) linebacker will be seen as outweighing the fact that he's past the age where teams might see room for him to improve athletically.
10. Joe Sykes - DL
By this point in the list, one could fit in almost anybody from a couple of categories: either players young enough to have room for growth and athletic enough to fit an NFL position (Donovan Alexander, Hugh Charles, Jerrell Freeman, Graham Harrell, Carlos Armour, Michael Stadnyk), or reasonably young players with NFL experience who might be able to use their CFL game film as part of their case for a more prominent role (Dalton Bell, Lance Frazier, Gerran Walker, Chris McKenzie, Bobby Harris). But let's go with Sykes based on the possibility that the departure of Chick (and potentially Baggs as well) will allow him to showcase his skills in the CFL in 2010 and make the jump.
As for the possibly surprising omissions from this list:
- Having turned himself into an upper-tier CFL quarterback by age 27, Darien Durant would seem to have less far to go than some of the players above. But even the likes of Ricky Ray, Henry Burris and Casey Printers have found themselves trapped no higher up than third on an NFL depth chart, and Durant's size figures to further reduce his chances of ever winning playing time south of the border.
- As mentioned above, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf have both been extremely productive as young receivers. But I'd think a CFL receiver prospect would have to at least rank as above-average in either size or speed by an NFL standard in order to get much of a chance, and neither Bagg nor Getzlaf fits the bill. Which hopefully means that the 'Riders will be able to build their offence around the combination of Durant, Bagg and Getzlaf for a long time to come no matter what else happens around them.
So let's take a look at one of the major questions facing the 'Riders next year and beyond: which of the 2009 'Riders are most likely to stick in the NFL over the next few seasons rather than forming part of Saskatchewan's long-term plans? (Needless to say, the question is particularly timely in the wake of the Indianapolis Colts' signing of John Chick, who'd be #1 on this list.)
1. Louie Sakoda - P/K
Based on his college production as a placekicker, it's surprising he was ever available for the 'Riders to sign last year as an emergency replacement for punter Jamie Boreham. And after taking a bit of time to adjust to the CFL, he performed extremely well on punts and kickoffs by the end of 2009. So it'll be a surprise if Sakoda doesn't manage to work his way into the NFL in the longer term - meaning that the 'Riders shouldn't expect him to be around for long.
2. Weston Dressler - WR
Dressler may be well below some of the players lower on this list in his likelihood of actually winning a starting job in the NFL: surprisingly few teams seem to have learned from Wes Welker's example that an undersized receiver with speed can be a hugely valuable weapon, and the team which actually has Welker in its lineup already has an understudy ready. But I'd have to like Dressler's chance of making good on any opportunity he gets.
3. Joel Bell - OT
Bell may not have the CFL reputation of the likes of Dressler or Fantuz. But he has great size and athleticism for an offensive lineman, and was able to play effectively in a starting role within mere weeks of first being exposed to the CFL game. And at age 24, he has many years ahead of him to potentially make a similar impression south of the border.
4. Andy Fantuz - WR
The working theory at the moment seems to be that Fantuz won't make it in the NFL due to his lack of speed. But I have to wonder whether he'll effectively get a shot at two positions: even if his speed won't play at receiver (which itself can't be taken as a given), at a sturdy 6'4" he's wouldn't figure to be more than a season in the weight room away from being able to fit in at tight end.
5. Stevie Baggs - DE
Baggs' strengths in the CFL may not translate entirely into the NFL, as he's almost certainly too small to last as a defensive lineman south of the border and may not slide in as a pass-rushing linebacker as easily as Cameron Wake did this year. But he's also been a highly effective special-teamer for the 'Riders, and would seem to have a strong chance of holding his own in that role.
6. Keith Shologan - DL
Shologan stuck long enough with the San Diego Chargers in 2008 to miss the first half of the CFL season, and has since developed his game extremely quickly with the 'Riders as an effective starter following Scott Schultz' retirement. But note one possible hitch for Shologan, as the 'Riders' preference for quickness on the defensive line may keep him from bulking up to the size which an NFL team might prefer in a tackle.
7. Luca Congi - K
On demonstrated talent alone, Congi would be at least two places higher on this list. But Congi signed a two-year extension in October without any suggestion that he sought a Fantuz-style clause allowing him to test the NFL waters - meaning that it's questionable whether he's even looking to make the jump, and that it'll be some time before he gets the chance. As a result, he ranks lowest on the list of anybody who has a relatively clear path to the NFL with his current skill set.
8. Adam Nicolson - WR
The catch for Nicolson is that he obviously won't get much of an NFL shot before he proves himself in the CFL first - and as long as he's behind Fantuz, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf among non-import receivers, there aren't going to be many passes thrown his way to allow that to happen. But his size and athleticism give him a better chance than Bagg or Getzlaf of eventually earning an NFL job, particularly if he gets to take over Fantuz' role.
9. Renauld Williams - LB
Williams has already been an NFL journeyman for several years, and thus can't be seen as somebody who's just needed an opportunity to show his stuff. But there would figure to be some chance that his experience as a starting (and starring CFL) linebacker will be seen as outweighing the fact that he's past the age where teams might see room for him to improve athletically.
10. Joe Sykes - DL
By this point in the list, one could fit in almost anybody from a couple of categories: either players young enough to have room for growth and athletic enough to fit an NFL position (Donovan Alexander, Hugh Charles, Jerrell Freeman, Graham Harrell, Carlos Armour, Michael Stadnyk), or reasonably young players with NFL experience who might be able to use their CFL game film as part of their case for a more prominent role (Dalton Bell, Lance Frazier, Gerran Walker, Chris McKenzie, Bobby Harris). But let's go with Sykes based on the possibility that the departure of Chick (and potentially Baggs as well) will allow him to showcase his skills in the CFL in 2010 and make the jump.
As for the possibly surprising omissions from this list:
- Having turned himself into an upper-tier CFL quarterback by age 27, Darien Durant would seem to have less far to go than some of the players above. But even the likes of Ricky Ray, Henry Burris and Casey Printers have found themselves trapped no higher up than third on an NFL depth chart, and Durant's size figures to further reduce his chances of ever winning playing time south of the border.
- As mentioned above, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf have both been extremely productive as young receivers. But I'd think a CFL receiver prospect would have to at least rank as above-average in either size or speed by an NFL standard in order to get much of a chance, and neither Bagg nor Getzlaf fits the bill. Which hopefully means that the 'Riders will be able to build their offence around the combination of Durant, Bagg and Getzlaf for a long time to come no matter what else happens around them.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)