The start of the 'Riders' season is just around the corner, and there doesn't seem to be much doubt about the main areas of uncertainty for the team. But while Rob Vanstone nicely identifies the question marks, I'll go into a bit more detail about the possible answers.
To start with, let's note why other areas of the team don't figure to be in doubt at this point. At plenty of positions, the team's strategy has been to bring back a good number of past players, and then to fill in holes with experienced CFL players whose upside and downside should both be relatively limited. So the offensive backfield (for example) should see fairly little change other than having Neal Hughes and Graeme Bell perform much the same role that Chris Szarka previously played, while the offensive line should be able to hold its own without having any real prospect of dominating. Likewise on defence, the team's run support and secondary both look solid but not much more.
That leaves just a few areas which will figure to make the difference for the 'Riders - either positively or negatively. So let's take a look at those in turn.
Receivers
Saskatchewan's generally-strong receiving corps obviously makes for the position with the most upheaval, with two of the team's top three receivers gone at least to start the season. Which means that the 'Riders probably can't take much for granted: about the best they can count on at the start of the season is to have one elite receiver in Weston Dressler, and two solid depth types in Chris Getzlaf and Cary Koch (once he's back from his thumb injury).
But the available playing time also means the 'Riders can test out a number of possible improvements - just as the team was able to use a spate of injuries in 2008 to develop the strong group of receivers that's emerged over the past couple of seasons. And there are at least half a dozen ways for the 'Riders' current group of receivers to get better in a hurry.
1. Chris Getzlaf emerging as a go-to receiver. Getzlaf has already shown that he can put together jaw-dropping single-game performances, particularly when he's had the chance to take over Fantuz' usual role for a game or two at a time due to injury or excessive defensive focus. (See e.g. Getzlaf's 300+ yards in two games against the Stampeders last season.) But he hasn't yet managed to keep up the pace over the course of a full season - and he may never get a better chance to prove that he can serve as a CFL team's primary target.
2. Jordan Sisco establishing himself as a CFL starter. It's a bit worrisome that Sisco seems to be behind a number of new imports on the depth chart despite having had an opportunity to experience the CFL last season. But Sisco shouldn't take a back seat to Terrence Nunn or Ernie Wheelwright in terms of raw talent, and the ratio bonus involved in developing Sisco should make him one of the 'Riders' top priorities for the new season.
3. Jason Clermont turning back the clock. No, the 'Riders can't expect Clermont to be among the league's receiving leaders at this stage of his career. But he was effective when asked to make tough catches late in the 2010 season, and his ability to serve as a reliable #3 or 4 might be crucial if the team's younger receivers disappoint.
4/5. Ernie Wheelwright and/or Terrence Nunn breaking out as a new CFL star. Obviously the best-case scenario for the 'Riders would see their new arrivals dominate from day one. And while Wheelwright and Nunn have less experience with Canadian rules generally and the CFL specifically than the players ahead of them on this list, it's well within the realm of possibility that either or both could do what Dressler managed in 2008 by turning a first shot at playing time into an elite season.
6. Rob Bagg returning healthy to end the season. Yes, ideally Bagg would be able to beat the predictions that he'll be gone for the season. But the team's focus needs to be on "healthy" rather than "returning": the 'Riders probably have enough depth to get by without Bagg, and can't afford to have him injure himself again by coming back too soon.
7. Andy Fantuz returning from the NFL. Fantuz' return would have a bigger effect on the 'Riders' offence than any of the other prospects. But the possibility is entirely out of the team's hands - so its best bet is to look to develop the strongest group of receivers it can as the season progresses, and see Fantuz as nothing more than a bonus if he does turn up late in the season.
In sum, the 'Riders have at least seven chances to develop their receiving corps alongside their existing base. And their success in doing so will likely be the most crucial factor for the team this season.
With a hit rate of 0 or 1, the 'Riders' passing game will be a weakness rather than a strength, and the team might struggle just to make the playoffs. With 2 or 3, Darian Durant will have a puncher's chance to outscore any team in the league, projecting the 'Riders to their usual place just above .500. And anything more could turn Saskatchewan's offence into the most terrifying force any defensive coordinator will face on the season.
Pass Rush
The 'Riders ability to get to opposing quarterbacks has gone from a major strength a couple of seasons back to a probable weakness now. Long gone are John Chick and Stevie Baggs, who could make life miserable for any offence based on their individual pass-rushing skills - and with Gary Etcheverry's blitzing and confusing defence replaced by Richie Hall's steady-as-she-goes philosophy, it'll be tough to count on the 'Riders' defensive system to generate pressure.
That means that it'll be up to individual defenders to find a way to get to the quarterback while fitting into Hall's system. So who has a chance of getting that job done?
With Brent Hawkins out to start the season, the most obvious possibility is Montez Murphy - who has been spectacular in short spurts, but needs to show he can exert consistent pressure. But the best hope may be for the 'Riders to generate pressure from some unexpected positions, rather than relying on Murphy, Luc Mullinder and Tearrius George to do much damage on their own.
One possibility on that front is for the 'Riders to focus on using their defensive tackles to get to the quarterback. Dario Romero may be penalty-prone and slightly past his prime, but he's been one of the better line-busters in the league over the past few seasons. And if Keith Shologan can incorporate some of Romero's tricks into his repertoire, then the 'Riders can make up for a middling set of ends with pressure across the entire line.
Or alternatively, Hall can look at setting loose the 'Riders' linebackers and secondary a bit more often. Of course we'll expect to see Jerrell Freeman unleashed after his breakout season in 2010, but the most important factor in generating pressure from across the field will be unpredictability rather than a single player's skills.
Again, there are a few options for the 'Riders to get to opposing quarterbacks - along with some hope for late-season reinforcements as Brent Hawkins returns from injury. But the pass rush looks to be more a matter of downside than upside, as a lack of pressure early in the season could leave the 'Riders in a hole that can't be escaped later on.
Special Teams
After Brendan Taman made special teams the 'Riders' top off-season priority (using three draft picks on special-teams players and making Graeme Bell and Tristan Jackson two of his top veteran acquisitions), one would have hoped for a bit more stability going into the season.
Instead, the 'Riders look to have a glaring question mark at place-kicker until Luca Congi gets healthy. But while that looks to be a weakness no matter what, the area where there's some chance of turning a weakness into a strength lies in the 'Riders' coverage teams.
At the very least, Craig Butler has joined Bell as an addition to the 'Riders' kick coverage teams. But more importantly, there's some reason for hope that Bell and new special-teams coordinator Craig Dickenson can develop Butler and the younger, more athletic players already on the 'Riders (Stu Foord, Shomari Williams, Sisco, Tamon George, etc.) into a disciplined and cohesive unit.
Meanwhile, the biggest issue for Jackson may be the number of roles he's asked to play. If the 'Riders try to press him into duty in the secondary, then it seems all too likely that he'll burn out even faster than returners normally do, leaving the return teams as a continued weakness. But if he's allowed to specialize as a returner and occasional offensive weapon, then the 'Riders should have their most effective returner in years.
Competition
Based on those question marks, the most reasonable expectation for the 'Riders is to end up in the same range as the previous couple of seasons, with a baseline expectation likely in the range of 10-8.
The 'Riders' main competition again figures to be the Stampeders, who should be the favourites in the division even after their season-opening loss to Toronto. The Eskimos look to be approaching contention again after their multi-year lull, with a high-upside receiving corps featuring Fred Stamps, Adarius Bowman, Chris Bauman, Jason Barnes and Nate Coehoorn looking particularly dangerous. And the Lions still have some extremely talented players, but have aged enough as a team (both in their existing players and their off-season acquisitions) to project into last place for now.
But then, nothing can be taken for granted in the CFL: one injury to a Burris or a Durant or a breakout season by a Cory Boyd can change a team's expectations in a hurry. And we'll find out soon whether the 'Riders can follow up another close-but-not-quite season with a run to the top of the West and the league.
[Edit: fixed typo.]
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