Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Far too often throughout the latter half of the 2013 season, the Saskatchewan Roughriders' early-game offensive struggles partially masked their greatest strengths.

Particularly after Alex Hall arrived in a mid-season trade, the 'Riders were built ideally to hold leads. The defence boasted enough elite pass-rushers to pressure quarterbacks while leaving plenty of extra coverage to drop into the secondary; the offence could churn up yardage on the ground as well as any, while also enjoying a high enough comfort level to try the occasional deep ball rather than playing too conservatively.

But if the 'Riders didn't get to deploy those weapons as often as they'd have liked earlier in the season, they showed exactly what they could do in its final two weeks - and particular in yesterday's Grey Cup victory over Hamilton.

The 'Riders' 24-point offensive outburst in the second quarter effectively forced the Tiger-Cats to abandon their running game and rely on repeated deep passes into tight coverage. Kory Sheets managed to pile up a few records and awards in the season's most important game - which should easily make up for any he lost to injury during the regular season. And just when it looked like the Ticats might make the ending too close for comfort, the combination of two deep passes to Weston Dressler and a Ticat turnover put the game well out of reach.

Of course, the CFL offseason will mean plenty of player movement - particularly with an expansion draft moving away from the best current teams in the league. But the Roughriders were able to play their best possible type of game when it mattered most - and an entire province is now getting to celebrate as a result.

Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Needless to say, there isn't much to question after a performance like the 'Riders romp over Hamilton yesterday. But I'll point out a couple of aspects of the 'Riders' recent play which may mean far more than the numbers receiving the most attention so far.

On that front, while "no turnovers in four games!" and "130-yard rushing streak!" make for interesting bits of trivia which do signal some important elements of the 'Riders development as a team, we probably can't count on their being repeated indefinitely. (That goes doubly since the former ignores two interceptions called back due to penalties and a fumble recovered by the 'Riders, and the latter only applies because Kory Sheets piled up yardage after yesterday's game was well in hand.)

More interestingly for the team going forward, we've seen the offensive evolve even over the first few games of the 2013 season.

At the start, Darian Durant primarily kept the chains moving with quick passes caught in traffic. But now, the offence is opening up in a few ways which can only complicate life for defences trying to defend the 'Riders.

Most obviously, Durant's success with a patient precision offence has opened up opportunities for deep passes - with two bombs to Rob Bagg yesterday breaking the game open much like Taj Smith's big game the previous week put the 'Riders ahead to stay.

But Bagg and Smith have also added another dimension to the 'Riders offence. In the past, most of the complementary receivers around Weston Dressler and Chris Getzlaf have been unimpressive in picking up yardage after short catches. But both Bagg and Smith have been effective shedding defenders and breaking tackles after catching the ball the past two games - turning short passes into big gains, and ensuring that even harmless-looking plays can turn nerve-wracking for defenders.
 
Meanwhile, the 'Riders' defence of course had a stellar game in pitching a shutout against the Ticats. But the shutout was based in large part on one of the most basic elements of defensive football: relentlessly effective tackling which shut down plays even after the ball went where the Ticats wanted it to.

Seldom did a Hamilton receiver manage to make a catch without a defender hitting him as the ball arrived. And while the Ticats hardly tried to run the ball, their few efforts to do so were easily snuffed out as the 'Riders' linemen were constantly in position to make a tackle on the first try.

Of course, more skilled groups of receivers than Hamilton's injury-depleted unit will make that more difficult in the games to come. But as long as the 'Riders can stay in the habit of winning the tackling war on both sides of the ball, they'll be in great shape for the rest of the season.

Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Two games into the Saskatchewan Roughriders' regular season, the "experienced team starting quickly" theory is looking fairly solid. But let's take a look at what's gone better than expected - as well as where there may be room for concern.

To start with, a couple of areas which looked like possible weaknesses have proven to be anything but. The 'Riders' special teams were a major question mark as the season started, but have been nothing but steady through the first two games. And the relative newcomers in the 'Riders' secondary have developed in a hurry, as Saturday's game against Calgary saw relatively newcomers Macho Harris and Prince Miller make a number of big plays to shut down the Stamps' quick-strike offence in the second half.

More importantly, though, the 'Riders offence has taken a major step forward. And the main question for the rest of the season will be whether it can keep up the pace.

Under most circumstances, I see the easiest path to success in football involving an opportunistic offence and strong units elsewhere. But alongside some cap and personnel-replacement considerations, that preference is largely a matter of practicality.

The problem with a precision offence is that it can be stopped in its tracks by a single misfire or dropped pass. And until this season, the 'Riders' personnel has been better suited to seeking out big plays than stringing together long drives - as Darian Durant has sometimes been erratic as a passer, and Chris Getzlaf has alternated between spectacular catches and cringe-inducing drops.

But two games into 2013, the 'Riders' key skill players (including Durant, Getzlaf, Weston Dressler and Kory Sheets) have looked like they can piece together a touchdown drive six yards at a time almost at will. And that style worked to perfection against the Stamps, as a methodical offence both kept the Stamps' playmakers off the field most of the second half and made up for an early deficit.

What's more, there's even some prospect for improvement. After all, Geroy Simon is still waiting to get back onto the field, and Taj Smith continues to show that he can make jaw-dropping catches when given the chance (even if they didn't translate into numbers against the Stamps).

Of course, there is a downside to fine-tuning an offensive machine around a single quarterback: while it may be possible to plug in new parts elsewhere, it's rare for an inexperienced backup to be able to find the small openings exploited by a more comfortable starter. Which means that the 'Riders' offensive line may be under even more pressure to keep heat away from Durant.

But if the greatest risk for the 'Riders is that their ruthlessly efficient offence relies on the skills of a quarterback who looks to be reaching his prime, that's hardly a bad sign. And while any football season is bound to involve some ups and downs, we haven't seen much of the latter from the 'Riders yet.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

The last time the Saskatchewan Roughriders beat the B.C. Lions, the storyline involved Saskatchewan getting just enough breaks to overcome a seeming gap in talent. But last night, the 'Riders managed to win an entirely different type of game.

The 'Riders' offence was perfectly prepared for the CFL's toughest defence: a constant two-back threat from Kory Sheets and Jock Sanders kept the ball moving on nearly every 'Rider possession, while Weston Dressler took advantage of some unusual breakdowns in coverage to put together what may be the best half of play I've ever seen from a Saskatchewan receiver. And Darian Durant (behind a remarkably effective offensive line) neatly took advantage of the opportunities to put 27 points on the board - including a crucial late touchdown strike to Greg Carr at the point in the game when his offence has all too often shut down.

Meanwhile, the 'Riders' defence put together what may have been its best performance of the season, overmatching one of the CFL's top offences through most of the game.

Even with their full, star-studded slate of receivers on the field in the first half, the Lions couldn't put together any big plays against the 'Riders. And the entire defence deserves credit for that result: Travis Lulay faced blanket coverage when he did throw deep passes, and also had his timing disrupted by a steady pass rush.

Nor did B.C. manage much of a ball-control game through the better part of four quarters. Instead, the Lions' two touchdown drives were built on desperation heaves at the end of the game - at the point when throwing into coverage and hoping for the best was their only option.

Like the offence, the 'Riders' defence then rose to the occasion when it counted most, shutting down the Lions' final drive without allowing a single completion.

What's more, the fact that the Lions came as close as they did was mostly the result of a number of fluke plays going against the 'Riders. The single turnover in the 'Riders' favour before the final drive was immediately followed by Durant's lone interception; Drew Willy uncharacteristically turned the ball over on a short-yardage play to hand B.C. the ball with great field position; and Taj Smith gave the Lions one last chance by muffing an onside kick reception.

Which means that as much as the 'Riders proved in yesterday's win, they once again have significant room to do better. And neither B.C. nor Calgary figures to have an easy job trying to stay ahead of the 'Riders in the standings as long as Saskatchewan keeps up yesterday's performance level.

Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Most of the commentary on Friday's loss to Edmonton has focused on the common traits between the Saskatchewan Roughriders' last three losses. But the more important developments may have been some new weaknesses which figure to make it much tougher for the 'Riders to get back in the win column.

To start with the points which might serve as a distraction, let's note that Friday's game offered a prime opportunity to confuse cause and effect when it comes to late-game turnovers. Yes, Darian Durant was intercepted twice - but only with the 'Riders already well behind in the game, and at a point where playing it safe wasn't an option.

Which isn't to say Durant had a great game overall. While his numbers looked much better for a few big plays (Taj Smith's circus catch and a couple of brilliant runs by Kory Sheets), Durant was once again somewhat off target with many of his throws and decisions (with a completion thrown from across the line of scrimmage serving as a particularly ugly drive-killer). And aside from Sheets, the rest of the offence was equally inconsistent.

But the 'Riders' have shown they can win with a modest offence if the team's other units play well. And that's where Friday's result raised some real cause for concern.

On special teams, Tristan Jackson had by far his worst game of the season. In some cases, that could be traced to obvious missed blocks; in others, it simply looked like Jackson wasn't finding the seams which he normally exploits as well as any returner in the CFL. But it's not an accident that the 'Riders were able to pile up large yardage totals without scoring a lot of points - and much of the problem has to do with the team starting with far worse field position than it has in most games this season.

Likewise, a defence which throttled the Eskimos just a few weeks earlier suddenly looked helpless against Steven Jyles' offence. And while most of the commentary so far has focused on the secondary, it wasn't only the Eskimos' passing attack that was unrecognizable compared to week 2: Hugh Charles also had a strong game thanks in large part to poor tackling by the 'Riders' run-stoppers.

Which is to say that rather than merely focusing on their late-game weaknesses, the 'Riders also look to have some work to do in rebuilding what seemed to be their strengths. And with nearly every team in the CFL clustered around the .500 mark, the 'Riders can't count on making the playoffs if they aren't able to regain at least part of their early-season form.

Tuesday Night 'Rider Blogging

Most of the commentary on last week's loss to Calgary has focused on the converse of the factors that went the Saskatchewan Roughriders' way in their previous game - as about half a dozen key plays all turned the game in the Stamps' favour. But it's worth taking a closer look at how the contest got close enough for those late-game breaks to matter - as it's there, not in the randomness of dropped passes and broken protection schemes, that the 'Riders may have missed their most important opportunity to stay undefeated.

For about 50 minutes, the 'Riders did everything one coud dhave hoped for against a tough division rival. On offence, the 'Riders countered the Stamps' run-stopping by leaning very little on Kory Sheets (aside from one big play). Instead, they built a possession game around Darian Durant's passing on the run - succeeding in avoiding turnovers, and trading off high completion percentages for both points and reliability. Meanwhile on defence, the 'Riders nicely shut down Jon Cornish while keeping the Stamps' passing game in check.

But after they took a 17-point lead, the 'Riders turned down the pressure on Kevin Glenn, allowing the Stamps to move the ball with little resistance. Then, the offence stopped doing what had worked - first going into prevent mode by relying on Sheets to carry the ball every first down, and later (once it was glaringly obvious that the run wasn't going to work) shifting to what was presumably supposed to be a safer short passing game.

An interception later, the 'Riders presumably lost any illusion that they could afford to try to kill the clock. But their efforts to restart their offence fell just short due to drops by Weston Dressler and Chris Getzlaf on potential touchdown throws, as well as two key sacks on Durant.

Of course, we have no way of knowing whether the Stamps might have been able to attack Saskatchewan's defence regardless of what the 'Riders did. And Calgary's success with a fast-paced offence will make for an obvious area where the 'Riders need to improve generally.

But the main takeway from last week's loss looks to be not to abandon what's actually working within a game in favour of conventional wisdom as to how to hold a lead. And that may prove an important lesson as the season progresses and mistakes become more costly.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Needless to say, the Saskatchewan Roughriders' season opener couldn't have gone much better. But let's note that the game was somewhat closer than it may have appeared on the scoreboard - even while highlighting what parts of the game may bode very well for the 'Riders' chances in 2012.

To start with, we shouldn't forget that the Ticats had plenty of chances to take the game in a different direction - with a long touchdown pass called off on a penalty, and two near-interceptions dropped by Geoff Tisdale. Those plays may not have made all the difference on the scoreboard, but the second half would likely have played out differently if the 'Riders hadn't held the advantage on the scoreboard.

That said, those types of plays which can create a gap between the scoreboard and the flow of the game are inevitable. And on the latter front, the 'Riders managed to outperform Hamilton through most of the game.

For the 'Riders' offense, even the solid scoring and yardage numbers didn't tell the whole story. Instead, there were two twists in how the team put up 43 points and 500 yards that look rather promising for the season to come.

First, there was a possible new step in Darian Durant's development as a quarterback. In the past, his success has largely been based on a combination of scrambling ability and a willingness to take risks. But on Friday he was able to control the play much more than in the past: most of his throws not only found their receivers but connected at just the right time and place, meaning that in addition to completing passes Durant gave his receivers every opportunity to make plays after the catch.

And that was the second revelation from the 'Riders' opener.  Yes, Weston Dressler has been elusive in the past - but I don't recall him ever leaving quite as many defenders grabbing at thin air as he did Friday night. And Kory Sheets was roughly on par with Dressler's shiftiness as both a rusher and a receiver, while at least a couple of other receivers also managed to manufacture big plays out of slipped tackles.

Of course, an improved offensive line went a long way toward allowing for the boosts in timing and playmaking we saw on Friday. But if Durant and his receivers can go beyond merely playing a possession game and turn small windows into massive gains, then the 'Riders offense may be better than we've seen in a long time.

On defence, the 'Riders were mostly effective but unspectacular. The most promising sign was the combination of sacks and Hamilton holding penalties (suggesting that the 'Riders' pass rush indeed managed to make a difference). But there were a couple of breakdowns in the 'Riders' own tackling, and there looks to be plenty of room for the secondary to make more plays than it did against the Ticats.

That said, there's much more reason for optimism than concern based on the 'Riders' season opener. And we'll find out soon whether the 'Riders can keep up the pace.

Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging

At the very least, the Saskatchewan Roughriders' 2011 playoff hopes ended in a game where the team started to show what it could accomplish under the right circumstances.

After three weeks of utter offensive futility, the 'Riders put together scads of productive drives, with Darian Durant, Andy Fantuz, Weston Dressler and Wes Cates all posting solid individual performances. The defence was largely effective in keeping the Lions from following suit, forcing Travis Lulay into a low-percentage pass offence and keeping B.C.'s running game relatively quiet. And the special teams nearly kept pace with their Lion counterparts - making for a particularly impressive accomplishment for Chris Milo in matching up against the CFL's most ruthlessly efficient kicker.

But once again, the 'Riders couldn't build on that base of basic competence with a single big play to tilt the score in their favour. A couple of 'Rider defensive backs were able to jump passes, but none were able to hold onto one to put points on the board. While B.C.'s single deep completion of the game saw Arland Bruce waltz into the end zone, the 'Riders' resulted in Dressler's momentum carrying him out of bounds with nothing but green space between himself and the end zone. And another quick strike to Andrew Harris effectively put the game out of reach.

Which means that we should enjoy the taste of what the 'Riders' current group can do in 2011 - as it's now time to focus less on the familiar, and more on sorting through younger players to see who might have a future with the team. And hopefully there will be enough big plays mixed in with the inevitable rookie mistakes to give the organization something to look forward to.

Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Needless to say, yesterday's result was a much-needed change from what the Saskatchewan Roughriders have produced through most of the 2011 season. But it's worth noting that the differences between the 'Riders' Labour Day Classic win over Winnipeg and its last few losses came down to a couple of fairly subtle points which combined to tip the balance in Saskatchewan's favour.

First, there's the addition of one more effective receiver, with Dallas Baker thoroughly impressing in his first game as a 'Rider. Thanks to the combination of Baker's addition, Efrem Hill's emergence and Chris Getzlaf's better play, the 'Riders now have enough effective pass-catchers to ensure that Darian Durant can keep defences on their heels throughout any given game - rather than forcing the ball to Weston Dressler or hoping for the best from somebody more prone to drops. And the potential additions of Andy Fantuz and Cary Koch to the unit could well turn the 'Riders into one of the more dangerous teams in the CFL going into the second half of the season.

Meanwhile, the other key change was the 'Riders' rare success in gaining the upper hand early. The previous several games, Saskatchewan had staked opponents to large leads, then played fairly well in the second half to leave a modicum of hope until the last couple of minutes of each game. But the 'Riders have spent most of the season playing from behind - forcing its offence to press for points while ensuring that opponents could play conservatively.

Yesterday, that dynamic was turned around. And indeed, the 'Riders won the turnover battle because of their success on the scoreboard rather than the other way around: having taken a lead despite a couple of costly giveaways, Saskatchewan was then able to rack up two turnovers on downs and a late interception.

Aside from those factors, the 'Riders' success yesterday was mostly a combination of incremental improvement and good timing. All three units have had their moments in recent weeks, but the defence and return teams in particular went from effective to dominant against Winnipeg. And the few mistakes the 'Riders did make (most notably the two first-half turnovers) didn't lead to much damage on the scoreboard.

Of course, there's some danger in reading too much into one game in either direction. And indeed, I'll stick to the argument that the most important development for the 'Riders in September will be less what happens on the field than what the team can do to bring in the best of the crop of NFL cuts.

But the 'Riders nonetheless deserve credit for their first truly strong win of the 2011 season. And whether the change is more the result of Ken Miller's return as coach, upgrades in player talent or simply more breaks going the 'Riders' way, there's far more reason for hope for the rest of this season than 'Rider fans could enjoy this time yesterday.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

It's disappointing enough for the 'Riders to lose to Calgary at home. But it's doubly so to manage the feat while playing about as well as could possibly be expected in two phases of the game - leaving huge questions about an offensive unit which was supposed to be the team's strength.

On the bright side, Saskatchewan's defence was superb until the middle of the fourth quarter. In effect, the secondary looks to have taken a page out of the Stamps' playbook, pressuring receivers and jumping routes at every turn while making sure tackles when the ball did arrive. Meanwhile, the defensive line kept consistent pressure on Henry Burris. And the result was another game where one of the CFL's top offences was prevented both from finishing long drives, and from beating the 'Riders with big plays.

Meanwhile, the special teams finally seem to be performing consistently. Brandon West had the top single runback of the day, but both he and Tristan Jackson regularly generated positive yardage on kick returns. And Eddie Johnson's combination of booming kicks and frequent trips downfield to try to recover the ball figure to have given him a strong chance to hold onto his job even if Luca Congi returns healthy (particularly if the 'Riders do in fact prefer having one player handle kickoffs, punts and field goals).

But then there was the offence.

Yes, the 'Riders managed a few scattered big plays, and looked fairly decent by the numbers. But even when they were able to put points on the board, they did it more through stunts and lucky breaks than through any sustained control over the ball. And perhaps most problematically, the biggest issue facing the 'Riders this season still seems to be entirely unresolved.

There was never much doubt that Weston Dressler would be Saskatchewan's key receiver this season, and he's more than lived up to the title. But the 'Riders seem no closer to deciding who should join him as a go-to pass-catcher than they were at the start of the year. And with Jason Clermont moving far too slowly to get separation from most defenders, Terrence Nunn dropping what should have been a momentum-builder early in the game, Efrem Hill again pairing a single solid catch-and-run with a damaging penalty and Chris Getzlaf still looking inconsistent, the answer looks more and more to be that the 'Riders won't find what they're looking for on their current roster.

Fortunately, the end of the NFL's lockout raises the prospect of a Fantuz return and/or an influx of talent from south of the border before the CFL season is done. But if the offence can't figure out how to produce more consistently in the meantime, the 'Riders will have a huge hole to dig themselves out of once that talent arrives.

[Edit: fixed typo.]

Friday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Following up on my relatively brief post here, I'll take a bit of time to note a few of the storylines going into Sunday's West final - with a focus on some factors which may matter more or less than one would think from the talk I've heard so far.

First off, in the category of factors which may be less important than one might think from the usual CFL commentary...

Andy Fantuz' Receiving Numbers

Yes, it's for the best if the league's leading receiver can once again torch the Stampeders for a 10/255 line. But the Stamps' response in the next game against Saskatchewan shows that they can shut him down if they put their mind to it - and the question for the 'Riders should be how to answer if that's once again Calgary's defensive focus.

On that point, Fantuz' well-known skill in managing time and space would seem to have more uses than just trying to get open himself. If Fantuz scares the Stamps enough to draw away coverage that allows a Getzlaf or a Dressler to get open deep, and if he responds to Brandon Browner's physical coverage in kind with some blocks that keep the Stamps' top defender from making plays, then the 'Riders' offence can operate smoothly even if he's shut down himself. (And indeed his 2-for-11 performance against the Lions didn't stop the 'Riders from getting this far.)

Joffrey Reynolds

There's been plenty of attention paid to the combination of the 'Riders' sometimes-shaky run defence and the Stamps' rushing prowess. But it's worth keeping in mind that even in a reasonably good game, Reynolds' rushing attack will produce less yardage per play than the Stamps' usual passing game.

So the 'Riders' best-case scenario is to have the Stamps rushing the ball as much as possible, preferably due to successful efforts to disrupt the passing game that's more likely to put the Stamps in control. And if Reynolds ends up with 100+ yards and the 'Riders come away with the win, I doubt anybody in green will be complaining.

Meanwhile, a couple of other points which don't seem to have received much attention deserve to be noted before they come into play...

Every Point Counts

The flip side of trying to force the Stampeders into a grind-it-out game is that the 'Riders will need to take advantage of their opportunities to score. And that's a problem with Warren Kean having not yet made a field goal longer than 29 yards, as a couple more misses could make a huge difference in a close game.

Part of the solution will hopefully be for Kean to pick up his game. But I'd also be curious to see whether the 'Riders will try to pick up some spare points in other ways - e.g. by having Eddie Johnson kick more for distance on punts and kickoffs in an effort to put a few singles on the board.

Playing to Win

Finally, let's note one strategic point that seems to have received little mention in last week's game. The Lions scored a touchdown with a second left to go in regulation time, giving them what would seem to me to be a rather important choice: take the single point and go to overtime, or go for a two-point convert which would have won the game immediately (barring a miracle on a single play or kickoff return).

The way the 'Riders' offence had played in the second half, I'd have expected the Lions to give serious consideration to taking their chances with the two-point convert. But instead, they chose to go to overtime...where their success on exactly the type of play that would have won the game in regulation only prolonged the Lions' agony as the 'Riders won on the second series.

Of course, it's generally considered safer for a coach to choose the default option of keeping his team alive. But the Lions' choice to play not to lose may well have cost them the West semi - and I'd hope Ken Miller will be more willing to take advantage of an opportunity to put the Stamps away if one arises.

Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging

A quick take on yesterday's West semi-final win against B.C. for the moment...

Throughout the 2010 season, the 'Riders have seemed to be a different team at different times. And against the Lions, we got to see all of them on display - leaving reason to wonder whether the team can put together the full 60 minutes it'll need to beat Calgary or the East finalist, even as we have to be glad they showed up in the right order.

It was Team Missed Opportunity that showed up to start the game. In their first four possessions the 'Riders used a combination of a turnover, some special-teams success and a couple of effective plays to give themselves first downs at their own 51, the midfield stripe, the B.C. 33 and then the B.C. 22. But a combination of poor execution in the Lions' zone, two sacks and a missed field goal resulted in the team scoring only four points off those possessions.

That failure to convert on early opportunities looked like it might be fatal when Team Misfire showed up around the middle of the second quarter. Suddenly the 'Riders were completely ineffective trying to move the ball, and the defence went from swarming Travis Lulay to hanging on by the skin of its teeth as the Lions moved the ball downfield without much trouble. And when the Lions managed to turn a drive starting on their own 6 into a field goal to boost their lead to 12, there wasn't much indication that the 'Riders would be able to fight back.

But fortunately, Team Whatever It Takes showed up for the rest of the game. The offence suddenly starting functioning again, piecing together an ugly but effective touchdown drive on the ground to bring the game back within reach, then taking the lead on Darian Durant's rainbow pass to Weston Dressler. And while the Lions managed to tie the game at the end of regulation thanks to a sloppy defensive possession when it counted most, the 'Riders' offence kept up its habit of overtime effectiveness to pull out the win.

The bad news for next week is that I'm not sure we can afford to see either of the first two versions of the 'Riders from here on in. But it's at least for the best that the team found the right persona when it counted yesterday - and hopefully the 'Riders can keep up their late-game momentum from the beginning against Calgary.

(Edit: fixed wording.)

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

With the rest of the regular season already figuring to have little if any effect on the 'Riders' playoff positioning, it would be nice to simply look at whatever positives came out of yesterday's game which might serve the team well later on. And there was in fact one story worth noting on that front, as even before his two late touchdowns Cary Koch proved to be a reliable possession receiver who's well equipped to at least fill Rob Bagg's shoes in the lineup (even if Weston Dressler's role might be asking a bit much).

But aside from Koch's breakout game, yesterday's loss was a disaster on nearly every possible front - not just because it highlighted some of the 'Riders' longstanding weaknesses, but because it also included some new ones that never would have been expected based on the matchup.

On the offensive side of the ball, Darian Durant's typically middling completion percentage might look like the biggest problem on paper. But it had a far different cause than usual.

While Durant characteristically fired a few passes off target, the biggest culprit was a receiving corps which coughed up the ball at regular intervals, either by dropping passes at the outset or serving up fumbles on a silver platter. And the result was that even while Durant had a strong game in the ball-control department (not only avoiding any fumbles or interceptions himself, but not serving up any shoulda-beens either), the 'Riders ended up with an embarrassing combination of turnovers and drop-induced two-and-outs.

Now, some of that problem should be fairly easily solved: a few extra ball-control drills and a less-frustrated Andy Fantuz should make a world of difference in future games. And if the 'Riders can combine the passing game we've come to expect with the production they got from Wes Cates yesterday and a far more aggressive running game from Durant, then the offence shouldn't be far from where it needs to be.

Unfortunately, it's in the defence that there's an almost total lack of positives to take from yesterday's game. On paper, one could hardly have asked for a better matchup for the 'Riders: a young quarterback informed at the last minute that he'd be making his first CFL start going up against a pressure-based, turnover-happy defence. But even knowing that they could effectively stack the line of scrimmage to take away runs and short passes against a team that didn't have any apparent confidence in its ability to throw deep, the 'Riders not only allowed both Jared Zabransky and Daniel Porter to have strong statistical games, but also failed to force a single turnover.

Now, part of that might be attributed to chance - as there's certainly an element of luck involved in relying on turnovers as a defensive strategy. That said, part of it also seemed to involve some opportunities missed: the 'Riders weren't often able to tip even low, short passes which should have been ripe for the picking, and consistently lacked a second wave of defenders in position to deal with Eskimo backs and receivers after they beat the first tackle.

For now, I'm not sure there's much the 'Riders can do but chalk it up to missing personnel and luck, and work on making a few more big plays once the games start to count again. But it surely can't be a good sign that the D couldn't take advantage of a game which seemed ideally suited to its philosophy.

Meanwhile, the special teams were fairly consistent with the recent pattern since Ryan Grice-Mullen joined the team: a number of fairly respectable returns, coupled with a few absolutely disastrous plays that put the team in a hole it couldn't escape. This time it was Grice-Mullen fumbling the game's opening kickoff and the coverage team allowing Jason Armstead a touchdown on his first punt return that stood out in the negative department - but it's hard not to see the problem as systemic at this point, as every time the 'Riders paper over one glaring flaw in their special teams another one seems to emerge.

We'll find out soon whether the 'Riders will ever manage to get their act together in 2010, or whether the best of this season is squarely behind them. But an all-unit collapse against a likely playoff opponent surely can't bode well for later on - and it remains to be seen if the 'Riders have any answers left.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

The Saskatchewan Roughriders' victory over Hamilton yesterday may serve as the perfect summary of the team's season. While the 'Riders showed plenty of vulnerability on both sides of the ball, they managed to make enough big plays to pull out the game in the end. And the result was another notch in the win column - if not a clear statement that the 'Riders can keep piling them up in the future.

The story offensively was of course the number of jaw-dropping receptions that made for key plays on the 'Riders' touchdown drives. Presumably thanks in part to the wind in Hamilton, Darien Durant's deep throws weren't quite as precise as they'd been the previous week - but thanks to the stellar play of Weston Dressler, Rob Bagg and Andy Fantuz, they nonetheless connected more often than not. And the Ticats' fear of the bomb managed to open up enough room underneath for the 'Riders to do fairly well in the ball-control department as well (even if Wes Cates seems to have slowed back down after showing a bit more burst early in the season).

So the 'Riders' offense generally looked good...as long as one doesn't take turnovers into account. But Durant did serve up a couple of stinkers: an interception by Dylan Barker on a pass that looked doomed from the beginning, and a fumble on Saskatchewan's last offensive play of the game that gave Hamilton new life when the 'Riders had a chance to put the game away. And the timing of the latter giveaway looks like a particularly strong indication that Durant is still working on deciding when it's worth taking risks.

Meanwhile, the defence had a fairly easy answer to the same question about risk-taking - as it spent the entire game trading off big plays for the chance at turnovers, with remarkably strong results.

In theory, Kevin Glenn should be one of the last CFL quarterbacks to get suckered by deceptive coverage schemes - but he threw one interception and one near-miss on plays where defensive backs went unaccounted for on deep throws. And Deandra Cobb's valiant efforts to churn out extra yardage were turned into a negative by the 'Riders' propensity for forcing fumbles.

Again, that has to be balanced against the Ticats' success in moving the ball, with the 'Riders' focus on turnovers resulting in sloppy tackling through much of the game. And Glenn's already-impressive numbers could have been even better if not for a couple of embarrassing dropped passes. But once again, the tradeoff looks to have worked in the 'Riders' favour. And if the 'Riders' defence is creative enough to find ways to force turnovers even without generating its usual amount of pressure due to a banged-up defensive line, opposing offences may have little choice but to reduce their own production by playing it safe.

Finally, the special teams look to have been at worst a wash for Saskatchewan, making the game a relative success in that department. Ryan Grice-Mullen may not have the best hands of any returner around (as he showed with a fumble which he was able to recover), but his combination of raw speed and willingness to attack the coverage team resulted in a better return game than we've seen through most of the season. And while the 'Riders' kicking team had some rough moments, it was at least roughly able to match the production of its Hamilton counterpart.

So the end result is that while there's ample room for improvement on most fronts other than the receiving corps, the 'Riders once again did just enough to pull out a win against a contending team. And with the 'Riders enjoying both a winning streak and a strong position in the standings, the big question is once again whether they can sustain and build on their current level of play (rather than what can be done to fix major defects).

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Most of the discussion following the 'Riders' stunning victory over Calgary has revolved around Ken Miller's odd decision to try to win the game with a punt single rather than a 35-yard field goal. But while that choice was certainly an odd one, the bigger story in the game was that the 'Riders were in a position to win to begin with against a team that had been demolishing all comers - and that they did it by adding elements to their offence that had seldom been seen in 2010.

Keep in mind that Calgary's defensive success over the past few years has been based largely on its being willing to trust the Stamps' secondary in regular man-to-man coverage - accepting slightly greater vulnerability to big plays if an offence could beat a top-level defensive back as the price of having more defenders available to load up the line of scrimmage. And Calgary has been more successful than ever this season in making that tradeoff work to their advantage.

Which looked to create serious problems for a Saskatchewan offence which hadn't made effective use of long passes in recent memory, and whose already-porous line seemed likely to let Calgary's defenders get to Darian Durant before he'd have time to set up deep throws. But the 'Riders managed to create just enough time for Durant to get the ball away on plenty of deep routes. And from there, a combination of great plays by the 'Riders' receivers and perfect timing or luck resulted in the 'Riders completing as many long (50-yard) passing plays as they had in their previous 10 games combined - not to mention putting up a total of 12 20+ yard gains based on a combination of passes to four different receivers and runs by Durant and Hugh Charles.

While the 'Riders amassed some yardage with more conventional offence as well, I don't think there's much room to argue that they would have come close to the Stamps if they hadn't put such a constant emphasis on big plays. Durant posted what has to be a remarkably low number of completions (23) and completion percentage (59%) for a 500-yard game, while Wes Cates was once again shut down on the ground. So the 'Riders had little choice but to match the Stamps' high-risk, high-reward defence with an equally aggressive offence - and the gamble obviously paid off.

Meanwhile, the 'Riders' defence fared about as well as can be expected against Calgary's high-powered offence. While 30 offensive points (plus a touchdown off a turnover) is normally more than a team can afford to give up, the 'Riders held the Stamps to a thoroughly mediocre ground performance, and managed to stop Henry Burris' passing attack as well when it counted most.

The bad news for the 'Riders is that their plan of attack against Calgary doesn't figure to work all that well against any other CFL team - meaning that if they plan to rely on winning shootouts in the future, they have plenty of work to do adding accuracy to their mid-range offensive game. But it's still a huge plus to see Durant's offence going toe-to-toe with one of the league's elite defences and producing enough long-range fireworks to win - and that looks to be a more important story going forward than the late-game maneuverings that nearly blew the 'Riders' chance to win.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

The party line after the 'Riders' hard-fought win over Edmonton yesterday seems to be that the team's resilience in coming back to beat the Eskimos should be taken as a sign of greatness. But I'd think the more important lesson in a home game where Saskatchewan narrowly beat the lone winless team in the CFL is that the 'Riders still have a ways yet to go before reaching that level - and that there's room for improvement in both strategy and execution.

On the offensive side of the ball, yesterday's game will hopefully be the worst we'll see out of both Darian Durant and Weston Dressler this season - Durant due to his poor accuracy through the first half in particular, and Dressler in combining one glaring drop with a lack of production. Durant at least recovered to throw a couple of picturesque passes (as well as pile up decent yardage thanks largely to yards after catches), while Dressler's off game didn't hurt too much with Andy Fantuz, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf all having their moments catching the ball.

But while those struggles from two star performers may not have been in the game plan, it shouldn't have come as much surprise that the passing game would face some complications in yesterday's windy conditions. And that makes the play calling somewhat surprising: the running attack was virtually ignored for an entire quarter after the 'Riders' first-quarter field goal, and only received about equal use even after it proved to be extremely effective later on.

Of course, that has a lot to do with Doug Berry's aggressive offensive philosophy which is generally a positive for the 'Riders. But a team needs to adapt to conditions - and the 'Riders spent far more time yesterday flailing around with an inconsistent passing game than they needed to under the circumstances.

On defence, meanwhile, the most important story continues to be the 'Riders' effectiveness against the run. Once again, Saskatchewan held a marquee running back to about 50 yards of production, which combined with some effective red-zone play and a sudden rediscovery of the concept of the "turnover" to keep all but one of the Esks in check.

But there is some reason for concern with the one player who did run wild. For the third week in a row the 'Riders' defence was torched by the opponents' top speed receiver, and the damage has been increasing by the game: from 106 for Kerry Watkins on opening day, to 169 for Geroy Simon against B.C., to 213 for Fred Stamps yesterday. That hasn't necessarily been the result of exploiting similar weaknesses (Watkins did most of his damage downfield in one-on-one matchups, while Stamps racked up his yardage finding holes underneath), but it seems to make for a pattern that the 'Riders will need to break.

As for the special teams...the less said about them, the better. I'm not sure the 'Riders have much choice but to give Louie Sakoda and Dominique Dorsey each a mulligan, but the team's patience must be wearing thin when neither has contributed much previously to make up for yesterday's train wreck. And while those roster spots at least provide some expectation for improvement later on, it can't be too reassuring that last season's weak points on special teams are reemerging with a vengeance.

In sum, while any team will ultimately take a win, yesterday's game seemed to say more about what the 'Riders still have to work on than what they've managed to build so far. And hopefully next week's contest against Calgary will see not just the return of the 'Riders' lethal offence of the first two games, but also some progress in the problem areas.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging - NFL Prospects

I won't spend a lot of time discussing the developments surrounding Eric Tillman this past week, as I'd think there was a reasonable case to either keep Tillman or ask him to resign as eventually happened. But particularly now that Tillman is out of the picture, the 'Riders have to be looking at which of their 2009 members they can build around in the longer term as a new GM takes charge of player recruitment, and which ones they need to be ready to replace at any time.

So let's take a look at one of the major questions facing the 'Riders next year and beyond: which of the 2009 'Riders are most likely to stick in the NFL over the next few seasons rather than forming part of Saskatchewan's long-term plans? (Needless to say, the question is particularly timely in the wake of the Indianapolis Colts' signing of John Chick, who'd be #1 on this list.)

1. Louie Sakoda - P/K

Based on his college production as a placekicker, it's surprising he was ever available for the 'Riders to sign last year as an emergency replacement for punter Jamie Boreham. And after taking a bit of time to adjust to the CFL, he performed extremely well on punts and kickoffs by the end of 2009. So it'll be a surprise if Sakoda doesn't manage to work his way into the NFL in the longer term - meaning that the 'Riders shouldn't expect him to be around for long.

2. Weston Dressler - WR

Dressler may be well below some of the players lower on this list in his likelihood of actually winning a starting job in the NFL: surprisingly few teams seem to have learned from Wes Welker's example that an undersized receiver with speed can be a hugely valuable weapon, and the team which actually has Welker in its lineup already has an understudy ready. But I'd have to like Dressler's chance of making good on any opportunity he gets.

3. Joel Bell - OT

Bell may not have the CFL reputation of the likes of Dressler or Fantuz. But he has great size and athleticism for an offensive lineman, and was able to play effectively in a starting role within mere weeks of first being exposed to the CFL game. And at age 24, he has many years ahead of him to potentially make a similar impression south of the border.

4. Andy Fantuz - WR

The working theory at the moment seems to be that Fantuz won't make it in the NFL due to his lack of speed. But I have to wonder whether he'll effectively get a shot at two positions: even if his speed won't play at receiver (which itself can't be taken as a given), at a sturdy 6'4" he's wouldn't figure to be more than a season in the weight room away from being able to fit in at tight end.

5. Stevie Baggs - DE

Baggs' strengths in the CFL may not translate entirely into the NFL, as he's almost certainly too small to last as a defensive lineman south of the border and may not slide in as a pass-rushing linebacker as easily as Cameron Wake did this year. But he's also been a highly effective special-teamer for the 'Riders, and would seem to have a strong chance of holding his own in that role.

6. Keith Shologan - DL

Shologan stuck long enough with the San Diego Chargers in 2008 to miss the first half of the CFL season, and has since developed his game extremely quickly with the 'Riders as an effective starter following Scott Schultz' retirement. But note one possible hitch for Shologan, as the 'Riders' preference for quickness on the defensive line may keep him from bulking up to the size which an NFL team might prefer in a tackle.

7. Luca Congi - K

On demonstrated talent alone, Congi would be at least two places higher on this list. But Congi signed a two-year extension in October without any suggestion that he sought a Fantuz-style clause allowing him to test the NFL waters - meaning that it's questionable whether he's even looking to make the jump, and that it'll be some time before he gets the chance. As a result, he ranks lowest on the list of anybody who has a relatively clear path to the NFL with his current skill set.

8. Adam Nicolson - WR

The catch for Nicolson is that he obviously won't get much of an NFL shot before he proves himself in the CFL first - and as long as he's behind Fantuz, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf among non-import receivers, there aren't going to be many passes thrown his way to allow that to happen. But his size and athleticism give him a better chance than Bagg or Getzlaf of eventually earning an NFL job, particularly if he gets to take over Fantuz' role.

9. Renauld Williams - LB

Williams has already been an NFL journeyman for several years, and thus can't be seen as somebody who's just needed an opportunity to show his stuff. But there would figure to be some chance that his experience as a starting (and starring CFL) linebacker will be seen as outweighing the fact that he's past the age where teams might see room for him to improve athletically.

10. Joe Sykes - DL

By this point in the list, one could fit in almost anybody from a couple of categories: either players young enough to have room for growth and athletic enough to fit an NFL position (Donovan Alexander, Hugh Charles, Jerrell Freeman, Graham Harrell, Carlos Armour, Michael Stadnyk), or reasonably young players with NFL experience who might be able to use their CFL game film as part of their case for a more prominent role (Dalton Bell, Lance Frazier, Gerran Walker, Chris McKenzie, Bobby Harris). But let's go with Sykes based on the possibility that the departure of Chick (and potentially Baggs as well) will allow him to showcase his skills in the CFL in 2010 and make the jump.

As for the possibly surprising omissions from this list:
- Having turned himself into an upper-tier CFL quarterback by age 27, Darien Durant would seem to have less far to go than some of the players above. But even the likes of Ricky Ray, Henry Burris and Casey Printers have found themselves trapped no higher up than third on an NFL depth chart, and Durant's size figures to further reduce his chances of ever winning playing time south of the border.
- As mentioned above, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf have both been extremely productive as young receivers. But I'd think a CFL receiver prospect would have to at least rank as above-average in either size or speed by an NFL standard in order to get much of a chance, and neither Bagg nor Getzlaf fits the bill. Which hopefully means that the 'Riders will be able to build their offence around the combination of Durant, Bagg and Getzlaf for a long time to come no matter what else happens around them.

'Rider Tidbit of the Day

Ian Hamilton writes about the possibility that Wes Cates might be the only featured running back in the CFL to fall short of 1,000 yards on the season. But there's an even more interesting twist in the 'Riders' individual yardage totals: at their current per-game paces and taking into account Weston Dressler's injury, not a single 'Rider is on pace to notch 1,000 yards rushing or receiving this year (though Cates, Rob Bagg and Andy Fantuz may be within striking distance), even as the team ranks second in the CFL in points scored.

So how rare is that kind of combination in a contending team? CFL.ca has lists of the league's leaderboards going back to 2002 - and here's the full list of teams who haven't had a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver at the end of a season since then:

2007 Toronto - 11-7 record (thanks to the league's best defence), 340 points (4th)
2007 Hamilton - 3-15 record, 315 points (8th)
2006 Hamilton - 4-14 record, 292 points (8th)
2002 B.C. - 10-8 record, 480 points (4th)

I'm somewhat surprised that there are as many winning teams as losing ones on the list. But it's fairly clear that the three recent examples don't involve teams which won because of their offence.

Which makes the comparison to the 2002 Lions particularly interesting. They too had a veteran bruiser at tailback who contributed by catching passes as well as running (Sean Millington), along with a running quarterback who ate up enough yardage to give the team an effective ground game even without a top rusher (Damon Allen). And more importantly, they also relied on a deep group of receivers (four with 735 or more yards) to make up for the lack of any huge individual numbers: Geroy Simon was just a year away from breaking out as a CFL superstar, Jason Clermont made a solid CFL debut, former All-Star Alfred Jackson had one last productive season, and Ryan Thelwell led the team with 815 yards receiving in his second year in the CFL.

Now, there's a case to be made that Saskatchewan may have even more room to grow based on the number of options it's managed to develop within its offence. Unlike the Lions, the 'Riders aren't counting on a declining star as one of their top options - and while the 'Riders have relied mostly on three receivers rather than four, they also boast a second tier of receiving threats (Getzlaf, Walker and Clermont) to keep opponents guessing even more. But even if that doesn't turn out, the 'Riders would surely be happy to follow the path the Lions took in the years that followed their 2002 season.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

There was plenty of good news for the 'Riders in last night's win over Toronto. But while an underwhelming victory over a weak team counts for just as much in the standings as any other win, there were a couple of obvious problems which the 'Riders will have to fix in order to keep adding wins against their tougher opponents to come.

The best news for the game was almost certainly the offence's performance in the first half. After a couple of games where the offence had struggled early, the 'Riders managed to turn their first five possessions into four touchdowns and a drive into what would normally be field-goal range, racking up what would prove to be enough points to take the game by making use of nearly every weapon at the team's disposal.

And it's a good thing the offence managed to give the team that cushion to work with, as it was once again nowhere near as effective after halftime. The 'Riders' running game took some time off the clock with a few first downs in the third quarter, but the passing attack was thoroughly ineffective until the latter half of the fourth quarter. And while that late-game resurgence was enough to put the game away by adding another 3 points on the scoreboard while running most of the remaining time off the clock, it has to be worrisome that the team once again showed little inclination to put its opponent away earlier.

Meanwhile, the defence had a generally effective game, if not one to write home about. Ideally one would prefer to see the 'Riders control the run a bit better, as both Jamal Robertson and Jeff Johnson managed to put up some significant yardage. But those two never figured to be able to win the game on their own; instead, the real danger was Kerry Joseph, and the 'Riders managed to bottle him up on the ground throughout the game and anticipate much of his passing game beginning in the second quarter. There was still some room for improvement, as the Argos missed obvious opportunities due to both dropped passes and inaccurate throws - but in the end the 'Riders didn't give up more than they could afford, which has to be the ultimate goal.

And then there are the special teams, where the 'Riders have swapped out one major weakness for another. On the bright side, while Ian Hamilton describes Jason Armstead as "returning to form", I'd take a step beyond that. While Armstead has long been a dangerous all-or-nothing threat, I can't ever remember him being as consistently effective as he has this season. Which means that while it would be a bonus for him to indeed break a return or two to the end zone, the most important message the team can send is to make sure he keeps doing what he's doing to give the 'Riders better field position throughout the game rather than hinting that he should take more chances in order to score points himself.

Unfortunately, the 'Riders also faced one major problem in the battle for field position, as the punting took far more of a hit in Jamie Boreham's absence than I'd expected. That's particularly disappointing since Luca Congi managed to blast the ball when he had the chance to punt in the pre-season - but returning to the role now, he struggled with both distance and direction. And that may force the 'Riders into another strategic change if Boreham is out for long (and Congi stays in the role), as I'd have to figure it'll be worth trying a few more third-down gambles from the opponents' side of half if we can't expect to gain much yardage from a punt anyway. Or alternatively they may need to look at bringing in another punter, though the likelihood of finding a major upgrade may be low at this point in the season.

Needless to say, the 'Riders' next challenge in Calgary looks to be a far more difficult one than the Argos were able to pose last night. But the game plan shouldn't be all that different: like last night the main goals will be to keep an athletic quarterback from getting into positions where he can make plays on his own, while using a variety of weapons to find the weak points in an aggressive defence. And if the 'Riders can piece together a more effective punting game and stay more consistent on offence, it shouldn't be out of the question for the same strategy to help propel the team to the top of the West standings.

'Rider Tidbit of the Day

It doesn't seem to have received much notice so far, but let's point out that one of the Saskatchewan Roughriders' strengths this season has been the sheer number of effective receivers. In the team's 10 games so far the 'Riders have had 7 different leading receivers, including Weston Dressler (games 1, 2 and 8), Andy Fantuz (game 3), Rob Bagg (games 4 and 6), Chris Getzlaf (game 5), Jason Clermont (game 7), Wes Cates (game 9) and Gerran Walker (game 10). And it's not out of the question that a few more names could find their way onto the list by the end of the season: Stu Foord, Hugh Charles, Jason Armstead, Johnny Quinn, Eric Morris and Adam Nicolson all have the potential to put up a high-double-digit yardage total or more given the opportunity to make some catches, and of course Matt Dominguez is still waiting in the wings.

All of which means that the 'Riders had no trouble making teams pay for playing off any of their receivers. And that only figures to make it easier for the players like Dressler, Fantuz and Cates who normally demand extra attention to find openings that the 'Riders' opponents can't afford to give them.