At the very least, the Saskatchewan Roughriders' 2011 playoff hopes ended in a game where the team started to show what it could accomplish under the right circumstances.
After three weeks of utter offensive futility, the 'Riders put together scads of productive drives, with Darian Durant, Andy Fantuz, Weston Dressler and Wes Cates all posting solid individual performances. The defence was largely effective in keeping the Lions from following suit, forcing Travis Lulay into a low-percentage pass offence and keeping B.C.'s running game relatively quiet. And the special teams nearly kept pace with their Lion counterparts - making for a particularly impressive accomplishment for Chris Milo in matching up against the CFL's most ruthlessly efficient kicker.
But once again, the 'Riders couldn't build on that base of basic competence with a single big play to tilt the score in their favour. A couple of 'Rider defensive backs were able to jump passes, but none were able to hold onto one to put points on the board. While B.C.'s single deep completion of the game saw Arland Bruce waltz into the end zone, the 'Riders' resulted in Dressler's momentum carrying him out of bounds with nothing but green space between himself and the end zone. And another quick strike to Andrew Harris effectively put the game out of reach.
Which means that we should enjoy the taste of what the 'Riders' current group can do in 2011 - as it's now time to focus less on the familiar, and more on sorting through younger players to see who might have a future with the team. And hopefully there will be enough big plays mixed in with the inevitable rookie mistakes to give the organization something to look forward to.
Showing posts with label andy fantuz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label andy fantuz. Show all posts
Monday, October 17, 2011
Monday, September 05, 2011
Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging
Needless to say, yesterday's result was a much-needed change from what the Saskatchewan Roughriders have produced through most of the 2011 season. But it's worth noting that the differences between the 'Riders' Labour Day Classic win over Winnipeg and its last few losses came down to a couple of fairly subtle points which combined to tip the balance in Saskatchewan's favour.
First, there's the addition of one more effective receiver, with Dallas Baker thoroughly impressing in his first game as a 'Rider. Thanks to the combination of Baker's addition, Efrem Hill's emergence and Chris Getzlaf's better play, the 'Riders now have enough effective pass-catchers to ensure that Darian Durant can keep defences on their heels throughout any given game - rather than forcing the ball to Weston Dressler or hoping for the best from somebody more prone to drops. And the potential additions of Andy Fantuz and Cary Koch to the unit could well turn the 'Riders into one of the more dangerous teams in the CFL going into the second half of the season.
Meanwhile, the other key change was the 'Riders' rare success in gaining the upper hand early. The previous several games, Saskatchewan had staked opponents to large leads, then played fairly well in the second half to leave a modicum of hope until the last couple of minutes of each game. But the 'Riders have spent most of the season playing from behind - forcing its offence to press for points while ensuring that opponents could play conservatively.
Yesterday, that dynamic was turned around. And indeed, the 'Riders won the turnover battle because of their success on the scoreboard rather than the other way around: having taken a lead despite a couple of costly giveaways, Saskatchewan was then able to rack up two turnovers on downs and a late interception.
Aside from those factors, the 'Riders' success yesterday was mostly a combination of incremental improvement and good timing. All three units have had their moments in recent weeks, but the defence and return teams in particular went from effective to dominant against Winnipeg. And the few mistakes the 'Riders did make (most notably the two first-half turnovers) didn't lead to much damage on the scoreboard.
Of course, there's some danger in reading too much into one game in either direction. And indeed, I'll stick to the argument that the most important development for the 'Riders in September will be less what happens on the field than what the team can do to bring in the best of the crop of NFL cuts.
But the 'Riders nonetheless deserve credit for their first truly strong win of the 2011 season. And whether the change is more the result of Ken Miller's return as coach, upgrades in player talent or simply more breaks going the 'Riders' way, there's far more reason for hope for the rest of this season than 'Rider fans could enjoy this time yesterday.
First, there's the addition of one more effective receiver, with Dallas Baker thoroughly impressing in his first game as a 'Rider. Thanks to the combination of Baker's addition, Efrem Hill's emergence and Chris Getzlaf's better play, the 'Riders now have enough effective pass-catchers to ensure that Darian Durant can keep defences on their heels throughout any given game - rather than forcing the ball to Weston Dressler or hoping for the best from somebody more prone to drops. And the potential additions of Andy Fantuz and Cary Koch to the unit could well turn the 'Riders into one of the more dangerous teams in the CFL going into the second half of the season.
Meanwhile, the other key change was the 'Riders' rare success in gaining the upper hand early. The previous several games, Saskatchewan had staked opponents to large leads, then played fairly well in the second half to leave a modicum of hope until the last couple of minutes of each game. But the 'Riders have spent most of the season playing from behind - forcing its offence to press for points while ensuring that opponents could play conservatively.
Yesterday, that dynamic was turned around. And indeed, the 'Riders won the turnover battle because of their success on the scoreboard rather than the other way around: having taken a lead despite a couple of costly giveaways, Saskatchewan was then able to rack up two turnovers on downs and a late interception.
Aside from those factors, the 'Riders' success yesterday was mostly a combination of incremental improvement and good timing. All three units have had their moments in recent weeks, but the defence and return teams in particular went from effective to dominant against Winnipeg. And the few mistakes the 'Riders did make (most notably the two first-half turnovers) didn't lead to much damage on the scoreboard.
Of course, there's some danger in reading too much into one game in either direction. And indeed, I'll stick to the argument that the most important development for the 'Riders in September will be less what happens on the field than what the team can do to bring in the best of the crop of NFL cuts.
But the 'Riders nonetheless deserve credit for their first truly strong win of the 2011 season. And whether the change is more the result of Ken Miller's return as coach, upgrades in player talent or simply more breaks going the 'Riders' way, there's far more reason for hope for the rest of this season than 'Rider fans could enjoy this time yesterday.
Sunday, July 03, 2011
Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging
The start of the 'Riders' season is just around the corner, and there doesn't seem to be much doubt about the main areas of uncertainty for the team. But while Rob Vanstone nicely identifies the question marks, I'll go into a bit more detail about the possible answers.
To start with, let's note why other areas of the team don't figure to be in doubt at this point. At plenty of positions, the team's strategy has been to bring back a good number of past players, and then to fill in holes with experienced CFL players whose upside and downside should both be relatively limited. So the offensive backfield (for example) should see fairly little change other than having Neal Hughes and Graeme Bell perform much the same role that Chris Szarka previously played, while the offensive line should be able to hold its own without having any real prospect of dominating. Likewise on defence, the team's run support and secondary both look solid but not much more.
That leaves just a few areas which will figure to make the difference for the 'Riders - either positively or negatively. So let's take a look at those in turn.
Receivers
Saskatchewan's generally-strong receiving corps obviously makes for the position with the most upheaval, with two of the team's top three receivers gone at least to start the season. Which means that the 'Riders probably can't take much for granted: about the best they can count on at the start of the season is to have one elite receiver in Weston Dressler, and two solid depth types in Chris Getzlaf and Cary Koch (once he's back from his thumb injury).
But the available playing time also means the 'Riders can test out a number of possible improvements - just as the team was able to use a spate of injuries in 2008 to develop the strong group of receivers that's emerged over the past couple of seasons. And there are at least half a dozen ways for the 'Riders' current group of receivers to get better in a hurry.
1. Chris Getzlaf emerging as a go-to receiver. Getzlaf has already shown that he can put together jaw-dropping single-game performances, particularly when he's had the chance to take over Fantuz' usual role for a game or two at a time due to injury or excessive defensive focus. (See e.g. Getzlaf's 300+ yards in two games against the Stampeders last season.) But he hasn't yet managed to keep up the pace over the course of a full season - and he may never get a better chance to prove that he can serve as a CFL team's primary target.
2. Jordan Sisco establishing himself as a CFL starter. It's a bit worrisome that Sisco seems to be behind a number of new imports on the depth chart despite having had an opportunity to experience the CFL last season. But Sisco shouldn't take a back seat to Terrence Nunn or Ernie Wheelwright in terms of raw talent, and the ratio bonus involved in developing Sisco should make him one of the 'Riders' top priorities for the new season.
3. Jason Clermont turning back the clock. No, the 'Riders can't expect Clermont to be among the league's receiving leaders at this stage of his career. But he was effective when asked to make tough catches late in the 2010 season, and his ability to serve as a reliable #3 or 4 might be crucial if the team's younger receivers disappoint.
4/5. Ernie Wheelwright and/or Terrence Nunn breaking out as a new CFL star. Obviously the best-case scenario for the 'Riders would see their new arrivals dominate from day one. And while Wheelwright and Nunn have less experience with Canadian rules generally and the CFL specifically than the players ahead of them on this list, it's well within the realm of possibility that either or both could do what Dressler managed in 2008 by turning a first shot at playing time into an elite season.
6. Rob Bagg returning healthy to end the season. Yes, ideally Bagg would be able to beat the predictions that he'll be gone for the season. But the team's focus needs to be on "healthy" rather than "returning": the 'Riders probably have enough depth to get by without Bagg, and can't afford to have him injure himself again by coming back too soon.
7. Andy Fantuz returning from the NFL. Fantuz' return would have a bigger effect on the 'Riders' offence than any of the other prospects. But the possibility is entirely out of the team's hands - so its best bet is to look to develop the strongest group of receivers it can as the season progresses, and see Fantuz as nothing more than a bonus if he does turn up late in the season.
In sum, the 'Riders have at least seven chances to develop their receiving corps alongside their existing base. And their success in doing so will likely be the most crucial factor for the team this season.
With a hit rate of 0 or 1, the 'Riders' passing game will be a weakness rather than a strength, and the team might struggle just to make the playoffs. With 2 or 3, Darian Durant will have a puncher's chance to outscore any team in the league, projecting the 'Riders to their usual place just above .500. And anything more could turn Saskatchewan's offence into the most terrifying force any defensive coordinator will face on the season.
Pass Rush
The 'Riders ability to get to opposing quarterbacks has gone from a major strength a couple of seasons back to a probable weakness now. Long gone are John Chick and Stevie Baggs, who could make life miserable for any offence based on their individual pass-rushing skills - and with Gary Etcheverry's blitzing and confusing defence replaced by Richie Hall's steady-as-she-goes philosophy, it'll be tough to count on the 'Riders' defensive system to generate pressure.
That means that it'll be up to individual defenders to find a way to get to the quarterback while fitting into Hall's system. So who has a chance of getting that job done?
With Brent Hawkins out to start the season, the most obvious possibility is Montez Murphy - who has been spectacular in short spurts, but needs to show he can exert consistent pressure. But the best hope may be for the 'Riders to generate pressure from some unexpected positions, rather than relying on Murphy, Luc Mullinder and Tearrius George to do much damage on their own.
One possibility on that front is for the 'Riders to focus on using their defensive tackles to get to the quarterback. Dario Romero may be penalty-prone and slightly past his prime, but he's been one of the better line-busters in the league over the past few seasons. And if Keith Shologan can incorporate some of Romero's tricks into his repertoire, then the 'Riders can make up for a middling set of ends with pressure across the entire line.
Or alternatively, Hall can look at setting loose the 'Riders' linebackers and secondary a bit more often. Of course we'll expect to see Jerrell Freeman unleashed after his breakout season in 2010, but the most important factor in generating pressure from across the field will be unpredictability rather than a single player's skills.
Again, there are a few options for the 'Riders to get to opposing quarterbacks - along with some hope for late-season reinforcements as Brent Hawkins returns from injury. But the pass rush looks to be more a matter of downside than upside, as a lack of pressure early in the season could leave the 'Riders in a hole that can't be escaped later on.
Special Teams
After Brendan Taman made special teams the 'Riders' top off-season priority (using three draft picks on special-teams players and making Graeme Bell and Tristan Jackson two of his top veteran acquisitions), one would have hoped for a bit more stability going into the season.
Instead, the 'Riders look to have a glaring question mark at place-kicker until Luca Congi gets healthy. But while that looks to be a weakness no matter what, the area where there's some chance of turning a weakness into a strength lies in the 'Riders' coverage teams.
At the very least, Craig Butler has joined Bell as an addition to the 'Riders' kick coverage teams. But more importantly, there's some reason for hope that Bell and new special-teams coordinator Craig Dickenson can develop Butler and the younger, more athletic players already on the 'Riders (Stu Foord, Shomari Williams, Sisco, Tamon George, etc.) into a disciplined and cohesive unit.
Meanwhile, the biggest issue for Jackson may be the number of roles he's asked to play. If the 'Riders try to press him into duty in the secondary, then it seems all too likely that he'll burn out even faster than returners normally do, leaving the return teams as a continued weakness. But if he's allowed to specialize as a returner and occasional offensive weapon, then the 'Riders should have their most effective returner in years.
Competition
Based on those question marks, the most reasonable expectation for the 'Riders is to end up in the same range as the previous couple of seasons, with a baseline expectation likely in the range of 10-8.
The 'Riders' main competition again figures to be the Stampeders, who should be the favourites in the division even after their season-opening loss to Toronto. The Eskimos look to be approaching contention again after their multi-year lull, with a high-upside receiving corps featuring Fred Stamps, Adarius Bowman, Chris Bauman, Jason Barnes and Nate Coehoorn looking particularly dangerous. And the Lions still have some extremely talented players, but have aged enough as a team (both in their existing players and their off-season acquisitions) to project into last place for now.
But then, nothing can be taken for granted in the CFL: one injury to a Burris or a Durant or a breakout season by a Cory Boyd can change a team's expectations in a hurry. And we'll find out soon whether the 'Riders can follow up another close-but-not-quite season with a run to the top of the West and the league.
[Edit: fixed typo.]
To start with, let's note why other areas of the team don't figure to be in doubt at this point. At plenty of positions, the team's strategy has been to bring back a good number of past players, and then to fill in holes with experienced CFL players whose upside and downside should both be relatively limited. So the offensive backfield (for example) should see fairly little change other than having Neal Hughes and Graeme Bell perform much the same role that Chris Szarka previously played, while the offensive line should be able to hold its own without having any real prospect of dominating. Likewise on defence, the team's run support and secondary both look solid but not much more.
That leaves just a few areas which will figure to make the difference for the 'Riders - either positively or negatively. So let's take a look at those in turn.
Receivers
Saskatchewan's generally-strong receiving corps obviously makes for the position with the most upheaval, with two of the team's top three receivers gone at least to start the season. Which means that the 'Riders probably can't take much for granted: about the best they can count on at the start of the season is to have one elite receiver in Weston Dressler, and two solid depth types in Chris Getzlaf and Cary Koch (once he's back from his thumb injury).
But the available playing time also means the 'Riders can test out a number of possible improvements - just as the team was able to use a spate of injuries in 2008 to develop the strong group of receivers that's emerged over the past couple of seasons. And there are at least half a dozen ways for the 'Riders' current group of receivers to get better in a hurry.
1. Chris Getzlaf emerging as a go-to receiver. Getzlaf has already shown that he can put together jaw-dropping single-game performances, particularly when he's had the chance to take over Fantuz' usual role for a game or two at a time due to injury or excessive defensive focus. (See e.g. Getzlaf's 300+ yards in two games against the Stampeders last season.) But he hasn't yet managed to keep up the pace over the course of a full season - and he may never get a better chance to prove that he can serve as a CFL team's primary target.
2. Jordan Sisco establishing himself as a CFL starter. It's a bit worrisome that Sisco seems to be behind a number of new imports on the depth chart despite having had an opportunity to experience the CFL last season. But Sisco shouldn't take a back seat to Terrence Nunn or Ernie Wheelwright in terms of raw talent, and the ratio bonus involved in developing Sisco should make him one of the 'Riders' top priorities for the new season.
3. Jason Clermont turning back the clock. No, the 'Riders can't expect Clermont to be among the league's receiving leaders at this stage of his career. But he was effective when asked to make tough catches late in the 2010 season, and his ability to serve as a reliable #3 or 4 might be crucial if the team's younger receivers disappoint.
4/5. Ernie Wheelwright and/or Terrence Nunn breaking out as a new CFL star. Obviously the best-case scenario for the 'Riders would see their new arrivals dominate from day one. And while Wheelwright and Nunn have less experience with Canadian rules generally and the CFL specifically than the players ahead of them on this list, it's well within the realm of possibility that either or both could do what Dressler managed in 2008 by turning a first shot at playing time into an elite season.
6. Rob Bagg returning healthy to end the season. Yes, ideally Bagg would be able to beat the predictions that he'll be gone for the season. But the team's focus needs to be on "healthy" rather than "returning": the 'Riders probably have enough depth to get by without Bagg, and can't afford to have him injure himself again by coming back too soon.
7. Andy Fantuz returning from the NFL. Fantuz' return would have a bigger effect on the 'Riders' offence than any of the other prospects. But the possibility is entirely out of the team's hands - so its best bet is to look to develop the strongest group of receivers it can as the season progresses, and see Fantuz as nothing more than a bonus if he does turn up late in the season.
In sum, the 'Riders have at least seven chances to develop their receiving corps alongside their existing base. And their success in doing so will likely be the most crucial factor for the team this season.
With a hit rate of 0 or 1, the 'Riders' passing game will be a weakness rather than a strength, and the team might struggle just to make the playoffs. With 2 or 3, Darian Durant will have a puncher's chance to outscore any team in the league, projecting the 'Riders to their usual place just above .500. And anything more could turn Saskatchewan's offence into the most terrifying force any defensive coordinator will face on the season.
Pass Rush
The 'Riders ability to get to opposing quarterbacks has gone from a major strength a couple of seasons back to a probable weakness now. Long gone are John Chick and Stevie Baggs, who could make life miserable for any offence based on their individual pass-rushing skills - and with Gary Etcheverry's blitzing and confusing defence replaced by Richie Hall's steady-as-she-goes philosophy, it'll be tough to count on the 'Riders' defensive system to generate pressure.
That means that it'll be up to individual defenders to find a way to get to the quarterback while fitting into Hall's system. So who has a chance of getting that job done?
With Brent Hawkins out to start the season, the most obvious possibility is Montez Murphy - who has been spectacular in short spurts, but needs to show he can exert consistent pressure. But the best hope may be for the 'Riders to generate pressure from some unexpected positions, rather than relying on Murphy, Luc Mullinder and Tearrius George to do much damage on their own.
One possibility on that front is for the 'Riders to focus on using their defensive tackles to get to the quarterback. Dario Romero may be penalty-prone and slightly past his prime, but he's been one of the better line-busters in the league over the past few seasons. And if Keith Shologan can incorporate some of Romero's tricks into his repertoire, then the 'Riders can make up for a middling set of ends with pressure across the entire line.
Or alternatively, Hall can look at setting loose the 'Riders' linebackers and secondary a bit more often. Of course we'll expect to see Jerrell Freeman unleashed after his breakout season in 2010, but the most important factor in generating pressure from across the field will be unpredictability rather than a single player's skills.
Again, there are a few options for the 'Riders to get to opposing quarterbacks - along with some hope for late-season reinforcements as Brent Hawkins returns from injury. But the pass rush looks to be more a matter of downside than upside, as a lack of pressure early in the season could leave the 'Riders in a hole that can't be escaped later on.
Special Teams
After Brendan Taman made special teams the 'Riders' top off-season priority (using three draft picks on special-teams players and making Graeme Bell and Tristan Jackson two of his top veteran acquisitions), one would have hoped for a bit more stability going into the season.
Instead, the 'Riders look to have a glaring question mark at place-kicker until Luca Congi gets healthy. But while that looks to be a weakness no matter what, the area where there's some chance of turning a weakness into a strength lies in the 'Riders' coverage teams.
At the very least, Craig Butler has joined Bell as an addition to the 'Riders' kick coverage teams. But more importantly, there's some reason for hope that Bell and new special-teams coordinator Craig Dickenson can develop Butler and the younger, more athletic players already on the 'Riders (Stu Foord, Shomari Williams, Sisco, Tamon George, etc.) into a disciplined and cohesive unit.
Meanwhile, the biggest issue for Jackson may be the number of roles he's asked to play. If the 'Riders try to press him into duty in the secondary, then it seems all too likely that he'll burn out even faster than returners normally do, leaving the return teams as a continued weakness. But if he's allowed to specialize as a returner and occasional offensive weapon, then the 'Riders should have their most effective returner in years.
Competition
Based on those question marks, the most reasonable expectation for the 'Riders is to end up in the same range as the previous couple of seasons, with a baseline expectation likely in the range of 10-8.
The 'Riders' main competition again figures to be the Stampeders, who should be the favourites in the division even after their season-opening loss to Toronto. The Eskimos look to be approaching contention again after their multi-year lull, with a high-upside receiving corps featuring Fred Stamps, Adarius Bowman, Chris Bauman, Jason Barnes and Nate Coehoorn looking particularly dangerous. And the Lions still have some extremely talented players, but have aged enough as a team (both in their existing players and their off-season acquisitions) to project into last place for now.
But then, nothing can be taken for granted in the CFL: one injury to a Burris or a Durant or a breakout season by a Cory Boyd can change a team's expectations in a hurry. And we'll find out soon whether the 'Riders can follow up another close-but-not-quite season with a run to the top of the West and the league.
[Edit: fixed typo.]
Friday, November 19, 2010
Friday Morning 'Rider Blogging
Following up on my relatively brief post here, I'll take a bit of time to note a few of the storylines going into Sunday's West final - with a focus on some factors which may matter more or less than one would think from the talk I've heard so far.
First off, in the category of factors which may be less important than one might think from the usual CFL commentary...
Andy Fantuz' Receiving Numbers
Yes, it's for the best if the league's leading receiver can once again torch the Stampeders for a 10/255 line. But the Stamps' response in the next game against Saskatchewan shows that they can shut him down if they put their mind to it - and the question for the 'Riders should be how to answer if that's once again Calgary's defensive focus.
On that point, Fantuz' well-known skill in managing time and space would seem to have more uses than just trying to get open himself. If Fantuz scares the Stamps enough to draw away coverage that allows a Getzlaf or a Dressler to get open deep, and if he responds to Brandon Browner's physical coverage in kind with some blocks that keep the Stamps' top defender from making plays, then the 'Riders' offence can operate smoothly even if he's shut down himself. (And indeed his 2-for-11 performance against the Lions didn't stop the 'Riders from getting this far.)
Joffrey Reynolds
There's been plenty of attention paid to the combination of the 'Riders' sometimes-shaky run defence and the Stamps' rushing prowess. But it's worth keeping in mind that even in a reasonably good game, Reynolds' rushing attack will produce less yardage per play than the Stamps' usual passing game.
So the 'Riders' best-case scenario is to have the Stamps rushing the ball as much as possible, preferably due to successful efforts to disrupt the passing game that's more likely to put the Stamps in control. And if Reynolds ends up with 100+ yards and the 'Riders come away with the win, I doubt anybody in green will be complaining.
Meanwhile, a couple of other points which don't seem to have received much attention deserve to be noted before they come into play...
Every Point Counts
The flip side of trying to force the Stampeders into a grind-it-out game is that the 'Riders will need to take advantage of their opportunities to score. And that's a problem with Warren Kean having not yet made a field goal longer than 29 yards, as a couple more misses could make a huge difference in a close game.
Part of the solution will hopefully be for Kean to pick up his game. But I'd also be curious to see whether the 'Riders will try to pick up some spare points in other ways - e.g. by having Eddie Johnson kick more for distance on punts and kickoffs in an effort to put a few singles on the board.
Playing to Win
Finally, let's note one strategic point that seems to have received little mention in last week's game. The Lions scored a touchdown with a second left to go in regulation time, giving them what would seem to me to be a rather important choice: take the single point and go to overtime, or go for a two-point convert which would have won the game immediately (barring a miracle on a single play or kickoff return).
The way the 'Riders' offence had played in the second half, I'd have expected the Lions to give serious consideration to taking their chances with the two-point convert. But instead, they chose to go to overtime...where their success on exactly the type of play that would have won the game in regulation only prolonged the Lions' agony as the 'Riders won on the second series.
Of course, it's generally considered safer for a coach to choose the default option of keeping his team alive. But the Lions' choice to play not to lose may well have cost them the West semi - and I'd hope Ken Miller will be more willing to take advantage of an opportunity to put the Stamps away if one arises.
First off, in the category of factors which may be less important than one might think from the usual CFL commentary...
Andy Fantuz' Receiving Numbers
Yes, it's for the best if the league's leading receiver can once again torch the Stampeders for a 10/255 line. But the Stamps' response in the next game against Saskatchewan shows that they can shut him down if they put their mind to it - and the question for the 'Riders should be how to answer if that's once again Calgary's defensive focus.
On that point, Fantuz' well-known skill in managing time and space would seem to have more uses than just trying to get open himself. If Fantuz scares the Stamps enough to draw away coverage that allows a Getzlaf or a Dressler to get open deep, and if he responds to Brandon Browner's physical coverage in kind with some blocks that keep the Stamps' top defender from making plays, then the 'Riders' offence can operate smoothly even if he's shut down himself. (And indeed his 2-for-11 performance against the Lions didn't stop the 'Riders from getting this far.)
Joffrey Reynolds
There's been plenty of attention paid to the combination of the 'Riders' sometimes-shaky run defence and the Stamps' rushing prowess. But it's worth keeping in mind that even in a reasonably good game, Reynolds' rushing attack will produce less yardage per play than the Stamps' usual passing game.
So the 'Riders' best-case scenario is to have the Stamps rushing the ball as much as possible, preferably due to successful efforts to disrupt the passing game that's more likely to put the Stamps in control. And if Reynolds ends up with 100+ yards and the 'Riders come away with the win, I doubt anybody in green will be complaining.
Meanwhile, a couple of other points which don't seem to have received much attention deserve to be noted before they come into play...
Every Point Counts
The flip side of trying to force the Stampeders into a grind-it-out game is that the 'Riders will need to take advantage of their opportunities to score. And that's a problem with Warren Kean having not yet made a field goal longer than 29 yards, as a couple more misses could make a huge difference in a close game.
Part of the solution will hopefully be for Kean to pick up his game. But I'd also be curious to see whether the 'Riders will try to pick up some spare points in other ways - e.g. by having Eddie Johnson kick more for distance on punts and kickoffs in an effort to put a few singles on the board.
Playing to Win
Finally, let's note one strategic point that seems to have received little mention in last week's game. The Lions scored a touchdown with a second left to go in regulation time, giving them what would seem to me to be a rather important choice: take the single point and go to overtime, or go for a two-point convert which would have won the game immediately (barring a miracle on a single play or kickoff return).
The way the 'Riders' offence had played in the second half, I'd have expected the Lions to give serious consideration to taking their chances with the two-point convert. But instead, they chose to go to overtime...where their success on exactly the type of play that would have won the game in regulation only prolonged the Lions' agony as the 'Riders won on the second series.
Of course, it's generally considered safer for a coach to choose the default option of keeping his team alive. But the Lions' choice to play not to lose may well have cost them the West semi - and I'd hope Ken Miller will be more willing to take advantage of an opportunity to put the Stamps away if one arises.
Monday, November 01, 2010
Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging
Obviously the result of yesterday's game wasn't what Saskatchewan Roughrider fans had hoped for. But there's at least some reason for optimism compared to the path the 'Riders took to defeat in the previous few weeks - even if there's still plenty of room for improvement.
While the 'Riders' point total was one of the team's worst on the season, that wasn't for lack of far more success than usual in moving the ball with a wide variety of offensive plays. Darian Durant was back over 300 yards through the air (with Cary Koch and Andy Fantuz doing particularly well catching passes), both Durant and Wes Cates managed to do at least some damage on the ground, and the 'Riders were mostly able to avoid the Lions' pass rush thanks to a combination of Durant's elusiveness and a fairly strong performance by the offensive line.
The only problem was that while the 'Riders fired on all cylinders moving the ball in their own end, they stalled nearly every time they had a chance to score. So once again, the issue was one of points left on the field rather than a lack of opportunities, with a missed field goal plus two turnovers in field goal range more than making up the Lions' margin of victory.
Of course, by this point in the season one would expect the 'Riders to have figured out how to turn opportunities into touchdowns, especially after their 9-4 start. But it's at least a plus to be doing an effective job chewing up yardage - and there's still time for a reminder how to get the big plays working in the 'Riders' favour again.
Meanwhile, the defence did a better job of bottling up the Lions' offence than it's done in virtually any game this season. The 'Riders limited the Lions to a short passing game that was bound to be difficult for an inexperienced quarterback to execute, and tossed in an effective pass rush to boot. And the end result was that the Lions were held to 268 yards of total offence.
But there was once again a glaring omission from the scoresheet: once again, the turnovers that have been such a big part of the 'Riders' recent success against B.C. were entirely absent (as the Lions' lone fumble came on an interception return). And that's why B.C. could squeak out a win despite being generally outplayed on both sides of the ball.
Of course, the special teams foibles continued for the 'Riders. But at this point in the season, there's no realistic hope that the team will get that part of its game together when it counts - so the real question is whether the offence and defence can make up for the 'Riders' glaring weakness. And while yesterday doesn't provide a lot of confidence that the answer is "yes", it at least suggests that the 'Riders aren't too far away.
While the 'Riders' point total was one of the team's worst on the season, that wasn't for lack of far more success than usual in moving the ball with a wide variety of offensive plays. Darian Durant was back over 300 yards through the air (with Cary Koch and Andy Fantuz doing particularly well catching passes), both Durant and Wes Cates managed to do at least some damage on the ground, and the 'Riders were mostly able to avoid the Lions' pass rush thanks to a combination of Durant's elusiveness and a fairly strong performance by the offensive line.
The only problem was that while the 'Riders fired on all cylinders moving the ball in their own end, they stalled nearly every time they had a chance to score. So once again, the issue was one of points left on the field rather than a lack of opportunities, with a missed field goal plus two turnovers in field goal range more than making up the Lions' margin of victory.
Of course, by this point in the season one would expect the 'Riders to have figured out how to turn opportunities into touchdowns, especially after their 9-4 start. But it's at least a plus to be doing an effective job chewing up yardage - and there's still time for a reminder how to get the big plays working in the 'Riders' favour again.
Meanwhile, the defence did a better job of bottling up the Lions' offence than it's done in virtually any game this season. The 'Riders limited the Lions to a short passing game that was bound to be difficult for an inexperienced quarterback to execute, and tossed in an effective pass rush to boot. And the end result was that the Lions were held to 268 yards of total offence.
But there was once again a glaring omission from the scoresheet: once again, the turnovers that have been such a big part of the 'Riders' recent success against B.C. were entirely absent (as the Lions' lone fumble came on an interception return). And that's why B.C. could squeak out a win despite being generally outplayed on both sides of the ball.
Of course, the special teams foibles continued for the 'Riders. But at this point in the season, there's no realistic hope that the team will get that part of its game together when it counts - so the real question is whether the offence and defence can make up for the 'Riders' glaring weakness. And while yesterday doesn't provide a lot of confidence that the answer is "yes", it at least suggests that the 'Riders aren't too far away.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging
The Saskatchewan Roughriders' victory over Hamilton yesterday may serve as the perfect summary of the team's season. While the 'Riders showed plenty of vulnerability on both sides of the ball, they managed to make enough big plays to pull out the game in the end. And the result was another notch in the win column - if not a clear statement that the 'Riders can keep piling them up in the future.
The story offensively was of course the number of jaw-dropping receptions that made for key plays on the 'Riders' touchdown drives. Presumably thanks in part to the wind in Hamilton, Darien Durant's deep throws weren't quite as precise as they'd been the previous week - but thanks to the stellar play of Weston Dressler, Rob Bagg and Andy Fantuz, they nonetheless connected more often than not. And the Ticats' fear of the bomb managed to open up enough room underneath for the 'Riders to do fairly well in the ball-control department as well (even if Wes Cates seems to have slowed back down after showing a bit more burst early in the season).
So the 'Riders' offense generally looked good...as long as one doesn't take turnovers into account. But Durant did serve up a couple of stinkers: an interception by Dylan Barker on a pass that looked doomed from the beginning, and a fumble on Saskatchewan's last offensive play of the game that gave Hamilton new life when the 'Riders had a chance to put the game away. And the timing of the latter giveaway looks like a particularly strong indication that Durant is still working on deciding when it's worth taking risks.
Meanwhile, the defence had a fairly easy answer to the same question about risk-taking - as it spent the entire game trading off big plays for the chance at turnovers, with remarkably strong results.
In theory, Kevin Glenn should be one of the last CFL quarterbacks to get suckered by deceptive coverage schemes - but he threw one interception and one near-miss on plays where defensive backs went unaccounted for on deep throws. And Deandra Cobb's valiant efforts to churn out extra yardage were turned into a negative by the 'Riders' propensity for forcing fumbles.
Again, that has to be balanced against the Ticats' success in moving the ball, with the 'Riders' focus on turnovers resulting in sloppy tackling through much of the game. And Glenn's already-impressive numbers could have been even better if not for a couple of embarrassing dropped passes. But once again, the tradeoff looks to have worked in the 'Riders' favour. And if the 'Riders' defence is creative enough to find ways to force turnovers even without generating its usual amount of pressure due to a banged-up defensive line, opposing offences may have little choice but to reduce their own production by playing it safe.
Finally, the special teams look to have been at worst a wash for Saskatchewan, making the game a relative success in that department. Ryan Grice-Mullen may not have the best hands of any returner around (as he showed with a fumble which he was able to recover), but his combination of raw speed and willingness to attack the coverage team resulted in a better return game than we've seen through most of the season. And while the 'Riders' kicking team had some rough moments, it was at least roughly able to match the production of its Hamilton counterpart.
So the end result is that while there's ample room for improvement on most fronts other than the receiving corps, the 'Riders once again did just enough to pull out a win against a contending team. And with the 'Riders enjoying both a winning streak and a strong position in the standings, the big question is once again whether they can sustain and build on their current level of play (rather than what can be done to fix major defects).
The story offensively was of course the number of jaw-dropping receptions that made for key plays on the 'Riders' touchdown drives. Presumably thanks in part to the wind in Hamilton, Darien Durant's deep throws weren't quite as precise as they'd been the previous week - but thanks to the stellar play of Weston Dressler, Rob Bagg and Andy Fantuz, they nonetheless connected more often than not. And the Ticats' fear of the bomb managed to open up enough room underneath for the 'Riders to do fairly well in the ball-control department as well (even if Wes Cates seems to have slowed back down after showing a bit more burst early in the season).
So the 'Riders' offense generally looked good...as long as one doesn't take turnovers into account. But Durant did serve up a couple of stinkers: an interception by Dylan Barker on a pass that looked doomed from the beginning, and a fumble on Saskatchewan's last offensive play of the game that gave Hamilton new life when the 'Riders had a chance to put the game away. And the timing of the latter giveaway looks like a particularly strong indication that Durant is still working on deciding when it's worth taking risks.
Meanwhile, the defence had a fairly easy answer to the same question about risk-taking - as it spent the entire game trading off big plays for the chance at turnovers, with remarkably strong results.
In theory, Kevin Glenn should be one of the last CFL quarterbacks to get suckered by deceptive coverage schemes - but he threw one interception and one near-miss on plays where defensive backs went unaccounted for on deep throws. And Deandra Cobb's valiant efforts to churn out extra yardage were turned into a negative by the 'Riders' propensity for forcing fumbles.
Again, that has to be balanced against the Ticats' success in moving the ball, with the 'Riders' focus on turnovers resulting in sloppy tackling through much of the game. And Glenn's already-impressive numbers could have been even better if not for a couple of embarrassing dropped passes. But once again, the tradeoff looks to have worked in the 'Riders' favour. And if the 'Riders' defence is creative enough to find ways to force turnovers even without generating its usual amount of pressure due to a banged-up defensive line, opposing offences may have little choice but to reduce their own production by playing it safe.
Finally, the special teams look to have been at worst a wash for Saskatchewan, making the game a relative success in that department. Ryan Grice-Mullen may not have the best hands of any returner around (as he showed with a fumble which he was able to recover), but his combination of raw speed and willingness to attack the coverage team resulted in a better return game than we've seen through most of the season. And while the 'Riders' kicking team had some rough moments, it was at least roughly able to match the production of its Hamilton counterpart.
So the end result is that while there's ample room for improvement on most fronts other than the receiving corps, the 'Riders once again did just enough to pull out a win against a contending team. And with the 'Riders enjoying both a winning streak and a strong position in the standings, the big question is once again whether they can sustain and build on their current level of play (rather than what can be done to fix major defects).
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging
Most of the discussion following the 'Riders' stunning victory over Calgary has revolved around Ken Miller's odd decision to try to win the game with a punt single rather than a 35-yard field goal. But while that choice was certainly an odd one, the bigger story in the game was that the 'Riders were in a position to win to begin with against a team that had been demolishing all comers - and that they did it by adding elements to their offence that had seldom been seen in 2010.
Keep in mind that Calgary's defensive success over the past few years has been based largely on its being willing to trust the Stamps' secondary in regular man-to-man coverage - accepting slightly greater vulnerability to big plays if an offence could beat a top-level defensive back as the price of having more defenders available to load up the line of scrimmage. And Calgary has been more successful than ever this season in making that tradeoff work to their advantage.
Which looked to create serious problems for a Saskatchewan offence which hadn't made effective use of long passes in recent memory, and whose already-porous line seemed likely to let Calgary's defenders get to Darian Durant before he'd have time to set up deep throws. But the 'Riders managed to create just enough time for Durant to get the ball away on plenty of deep routes. And from there, a combination of great plays by the 'Riders' receivers and perfect timing or luck resulted in the 'Riders completing as many long (50-yard) passing plays as they had in their previous 10 games combined - not to mention putting up a total of 12 20+ yard gains based on a combination of passes to four different receivers and runs by Durant and Hugh Charles.
While the 'Riders amassed some yardage with more conventional offence as well, I don't think there's much room to argue that they would have come close to the Stamps if they hadn't put such a constant emphasis on big plays. Durant posted what has to be a remarkably low number of completions (23) and completion percentage (59%) for a 500-yard game, while Wes Cates was once again shut down on the ground. So the 'Riders had little choice but to match the Stamps' high-risk, high-reward defence with an equally aggressive offence - and the gamble obviously paid off.
Meanwhile, the 'Riders' defence fared about as well as can be expected against Calgary's high-powered offence. While 30 offensive points (plus a touchdown off a turnover) is normally more than a team can afford to give up, the 'Riders held the Stamps to a thoroughly mediocre ground performance, and managed to stop Henry Burris' passing attack as well when it counted most.
The bad news for the 'Riders is that their plan of attack against Calgary doesn't figure to work all that well against any other CFL team - meaning that if they plan to rely on winning shootouts in the future, they have plenty of work to do adding accuracy to their mid-range offensive game. But it's still a huge plus to see Durant's offence going toe-to-toe with one of the league's elite defences and producing enough long-range fireworks to win - and that looks to be a more important story going forward than the late-game maneuverings that nearly blew the 'Riders' chance to win.
Keep in mind that Calgary's defensive success over the past few years has been based largely on its being willing to trust the Stamps' secondary in regular man-to-man coverage - accepting slightly greater vulnerability to big plays if an offence could beat a top-level defensive back as the price of having more defenders available to load up the line of scrimmage. And Calgary has been more successful than ever this season in making that tradeoff work to their advantage.
Which looked to create serious problems for a Saskatchewan offence which hadn't made effective use of long passes in recent memory, and whose already-porous line seemed likely to let Calgary's defenders get to Darian Durant before he'd have time to set up deep throws. But the 'Riders managed to create just enough time for Durant to get the ball away on plenty of deep routes. And from there, a combination of great plays by the 'Riders' receivers and perfect timing or luck resulted in the 'Riders completing as many long (50-yard) passing plays as they had in their previous 10 games combined - not to mention putting up a total of 12 20+ yard gains based on a combination of passes to four different receivers and runs by Durant and Hugh Charles.
While the 'Riders amassed some yardage with more conventional offence as well, I don't think there's much room to argue that they would have come close to the Stamps if they hadn't put such a constant emphasis on big plays. Durant posted what has to be a remarkably low number of completions (23) and completion percentage (59%) for a 500-yard game, while Wes Cates was once again shut down on the ground. So the 'Riders had little choice but to match the Stamps' high-risk, high-reward defence with an equally aggressive offence - and the gamble obviously paid off.
Meanwhile, the 'Riders' defence fared about as well as can be expected against Calgary's high-powered offence. While 30 offensive points (plus a touchdown off a turnover) is normally more than a team can afford to give up, the 'Riders held the Stamps to a thoroughly mediocre ground performance, and managed to stop Henry Burris' passing attack as well when it counted most.
The bad news for the 'Riders is that their plan of attack against Calgary doesn't figure to work all that well against any other CFL team - meaning that if they plan to rely on winning shootouts in the future, they have plenty of work to do adding accuracy to their mid-range offensive game. But it's still a huge plus to see Durant's offence going toe-to-toe with one of the league's elite defences and producing enough long-range fireworks to win - and that looks to be a more important story going forward than the late-game maneuverings that nearly blew the 'Riders' chance to win.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging - NFL Prospects
I won't spend a lot of time discussing the developments surrounding Eric Tillman this past week, as I'd think there was a reasonable case to either keep Tillman or ask him to resign as eventually happened. But particularly now that Tillman is out of the picture, the 'Riders have to be looking at which of their 2009 members they can build around in the longer term as a new GM takes charge of player recruitment, and which ones they need to be ready to replace at any time.
So let's take a look at one of the major questions facing the 'Riders next year and beyond: which of the 2009 'Riders are most likely to stick in the NFL over the next few seasons rather than forming part of Saskatchewan's long-term plans? (Needless to say, the question is particularly timely in the wake of the Indianapolis Colts' signing of John Chick, who'd be #1 on this list.)
1. Louie Sakoda - P/K
Based on his college production as a placekicker, it's surprising he was ever available for the 'Riders to sign last year as an emergency replacement for punter Jamie Boreham. And after taking a bit of time to adjust to the CFL, he performed extremely well on punts and kickoffs by the end of 2009. So it'll be a surprise if Sakoda doesn't manage to work his way into the NFL in the longer term - meaning that the 'Riders shouldn't expect him to be around for long.
2. Weston Dressler - WR
Dressler may be well below some of the players lower on this list in his likelihood of actually winning a starting job in the NFL: surprisingly few teams seem to have learned from Wes Welker's example that an undersized receiver with speed can be a hugely valuable weapon, and the team which actually has Welker in its lineup already has an understudy ready. But I'd have to like Dressler's chance of making good on any opportunity he gets.
3. Joel Bell - OT
Bell may not have the CFL reputation of the likes of Dressler or Fantuz. But he has great size and athleticism for an offensive lineman, and was able to play effectively in a starting role within mere weeks of first being exposed to the CFL game. And at age 24, he has many years ahead of him to potentially make a similar impression south of the border.
4. Andy Fantuz - WR
The working theory at the moment seems to be that Fantuz won't make it in the NFL due to his lack of speed. But I have to wonder whether he'll effectively get a shot at two positions: even if his speed won't play at receiver (which itself can't be taken as a given), at a sturdy 6'4" he's wouldn't figure to be more than a season in the weight room away from being able to fit in at tight end.
5. Stevie Baggs - DE
Baggs' strengths in the CFL may not translate entirely into the NFL, as he's almost certainly too small to last as a defensive lineman south of the border and may not slide in as a pass-rushing linebacker as easily as Cameron Wake did this year. But he's also been a highly effective special-teamer for the 'Riders, and would seem to have a strong chance of holding his own in that role.
6. Keith Shologan - DL
Shologan stuck long enough with the San Diego Chargers in 2008 to miss the first half of the CFL season, and has since developed his game extremely quickly with the 'Riders as an effective starter following Scott Schultz' retirement. But note one possible hitch for Shologan, as the 'Riders' preference for quickness on the defensive line may keep him from bulking up to the size which an NFL team might prefer in a tackle.
7. Luca Congi - K
On demonstrated talent alone, Congi would be at least two places higher on this list. But Congi signed a two-year extension in October without any suggestion that he sought a Fantuz-style clause allowing him to test the NFL waters - meaning that it's questionable whether he's even looking to make the jump, and that it'll be some time before he gets the chance. As a result, he ranks lowest on the list of anybody who has a relatively clear path to the NFL with his current skill set.
8. Adam Nicolson - WR
The catch for Nicolson is that he obviously won't get much of an NFL shot before he proves himself in the CFL first - and as long as he's behind Fantuz, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf among non-import receivers, there aren't going to be many passes thrown his way to allow that to happen. But his size and athleticism give him a better chance than Bagg or Getzlaf of eventually earning an NFL job, particularly if he gets to take over Fantuz' role.
9. Renauld Williams - LB
Williams has already been an NFL journeyman for several years, and thus can't be seen as somebody who's just needed an opportunity to show his stuff. But there would figure to be some chance that his experience as a starting (and starring CFL) linebacker will be seen as outweighing the fact that he's past the age where teams might see room for him to improve athletically.
10. Joe Sykes - DL
By this point in the list, one could fit in almost anybody from a couple of categories: either players young enough to have room for growth and athletic enough to fit an NFL position (Donovan Alexander, Hugh Charles, Jerrell Freeman, Graham Harrell, Carlos Armour, Michael Stadnyk), or reasonably young players with NFL experience who might be able to use their CFL game film as part of their case for a more prominent role (Dalton Bell, Lance Frazier, Gerran Walker, Chris McKenzie, Bobby Harris). But let's go with Sykes based on the possibility that the departure of Chick (and potentially Baggs as well) will allow him to showcase his skills in the CFL in 2010 and make the jump.
As for the possibly surprising omissions from this list:
- Having turned himself into an upper-tier CFL quarterback by age 27, Darien Durant would seem to have less far to go than some of the players above. But even the likes of Ricky Ray, Henry Burris and Casey Printers have found themselves trapped no higher up than third on an NFL depth chart, and Durant's size figures to further reduce his chances of ever winning playing time south of the border.
- As mentioned above, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf have both been extremely productive as young receivers. But I'd think a CFL receiver prospect would have to at least rank as above-average in either size or speed by an NFL standard in order to get much of a chance, and neither Bagg nor Getzlaf fits the bill. Which hopefully means that the 'Riders will be able to build their offence around the combination of Durant, Bagg and Getzlaf for a long time to come no matter what else happens around them.
So let's take a look at one of the major questions facing the 'Riders next year and beyond: which of the 2009 'Riders are most likely to stick in the NFL over the next few seasons rather than forming part of Saskatchewan's long-term plans? (Needless to say, the question is particularly timely in the wake of the Indianapolis Colts' signing of John Chick, who'd be #1 on this list.)
1. Louie Sakoda - P/K
Based on his college production as a placekicker, it's surprising he was ever available for the 'Riders to sign last year as an emergency replacement for punter Jamie Boreham. And after taking a bit of time to adjust to the CFL, he performed extremely well on punts and kickoffs by the end of 2009. So it'll be a surprise if Sakoda doesn't manage to work his way into the NFL in the longer term - meaning that the 'Riders shouldn't expect him to be around for long.
2. Weston Dressler - WR
Dressler may be well below some of the players lower on this list in his likelihood of actually winning a starting job in the NFL: surprisingly few teams seem to have learned from Wes Welker's example that an undersized receiver with speed can be a hugely valuable weapon, and the team which actually has Welker in its lineup already has an understudy ready. But I'd have to like Dressler's chance of making good on any opportunity he gets.
3. Joel Bell - OT
Bell may not have the CFL reputation of the likes of Dressler or Fantuz. But he has great size and athleticism for an offensive lineman, and was able to play effectively in a starting role within mere weeks of first being exposed to the CFL game. And at age 24, he has many years ahead of him to potentially make a similar impression south of the border.
4. Andy Fantuz - WR
The working theory at the moment seems to be that Fantuz won't make it in the NFL due to his lack of speed. But I have to wonder whether he'll effectively get a shot at two positions: even if his speed won't play at receiver (which itself can't be taken as a given), at a sturdy 6'4" he's wouldn't figure to be more than a season in the weight room away from being able to fit in at tight end.
5. Stevie Baggs - DE
Baggs' strengths in the CFL may not translate entirely into the NFL, as he's almost certainly too small to last as a defensive lineman south of the border and may not slide in as a pass-rushing linebacker as easily as Cameron Wake did this year. But he's also been a highly effective special-teamer for the 'Riders, and would seem to have a strong chance of holding his own in that role.
6. Keith Shologan - DL
Shologan stuck long enough with the San Diego Chargers in 2008 to miss the first half of the CFL season, and has since developed his game extremely quickly with the 'Riders as an effective starter following Scott Schultz' retirement. But note one possible hitch for Shologan, as the 'Riders' preference for quickness on the defensive line may keep him from bulking up to the size which an NFL team might prefer in a tackle.
7. Luca Congi - K
On demonstrated talent alone, Congi would be at least two places higher on this list. But Congi signed a two-year extension in October without any suggestion that he sought a Fantuz-style clause allowing him to test the NFL waters - meaning that it's questionable whether he's even looking to make the jump, and that it'll be some time before he gets the chance. As a result, he ranks lowest on the list of anybody who has a relatively clear path to the NFL with his current skill set.
8. Adam Nicolson - WR
The catch for Nicolson is that he obviously won't get much of an NFL shot before he proves himself in the CFL first - and as long as he's behind Fantuz, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf among non-import receivers, there aren't going to be many passes thrown his way to allow that to happen. But his size and athleticism give him a better chance than Bagg or Getzlaf of eventually earning an NFL job, particularly if he gets to take over Fantuz' role.
9. Renauld Williams - LB
Williams has already been an NFL journeyman for several years, and thus can't be seen as somebody who's just needed an opportunity to show his stuff. But there would figure to be some chance that his experience as a starting (and starring CFL) linebacker will be seen as outweighing the fact that he's past the age where teams might see room for him to improve athletically.
10. Joe Sykes - DL
By this point in the list, one could fit in almost anybody from a couple of categories: either players young enough to have room for growth and athletic enough to fit an NFL position (Donovan Alexander, Hugh Charles, Jerrell Freeman, Graham Harrell, Carlos Armour, Michael Stadnyk), or reasonably young players with NFL experience who might be able to use their CFL game film as part of their case for a more prominent role (Dalton Bell, Lance Frazier, Gerran Walker, Chris McKenzie, Bobby Harris). But let's go with Sykes based on the possibility that the departure of Chick (and potentially Baggs as well) will allow him to showcase his skills in the CFL in 2010 and make the jump.
As for the possibly surprising omissions from this list:
- Having turned himself into an upper-tier CFL quarterback by age 27, Darien Durant would seem to have less far to go than some of the players above. But even the likes of Ricky Ray, Henry Burris and Casey Printers have found themselves trapped no higher up than third on an NFL depth chart, and Durant's size figures to further reduce his chances of ever winning playing time south of the border.
- As mentioned above, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf have both been extremely productive as young receivers. But I'd think a CFL receiver prospect would have to at least rank as above-average in either size or speed by an NFL standard in order to get much of a chance, and neither Bagg nor Getzlaf fits the bill. Which hopefully means that the 'Riders will be able to build their offence around the combination of Durant, Bagg and Getzlaf for a long time to come no matter what else happens around them.
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging
Needless to say, there's plenty to be satisfied with in the 'Riders' win over Calgary which clinched first place. After two nail-biters in the team's earlier games against Calgary, the 'Riders managed to maintain at least some advantage throughout the game, then pulled away late to the point where the Stamps didn't even bother leaving Henry Burris in the game for their last drive. So let's note what the team did particularly well to win yesterday - and what it will need to work on in case the Stamps are back in town two weeks from now.
The biggest plus for Saskatchewan was the most consistent offensive game the team has put together in some time. While Andy Fantuz seems to have finally broken out as a superstar receiver, the rest of the team's success was once again based on balance between a number of threats, with five receivers and three rushers posting 24 or more yards of production.
About the only time the offense was ever bottled up was in the first quarter after the 'Riders' first touchdown - but by then the Stamps were already on their heels due to the 'Riders' lead. After that point, the 'Riders posted a grand total of one two-and-out the rest of the game to go with no turnovers and few significant losses of yardage (thanks largely to Darien Durant's creativity when the Stamps managed to get pressure on him). And that combination will usually ensure that a team at least stays in any game - or holds a lead once it exists.
What's more, even while winning the game by 16 the 'Riders had more near misses than their opponents when it came to piling up even more points. Several deep passing routes were no more than a stride away from turning into long TDs, while a couple of drives were stopped just short of field goal range (including one where a rare sack may have made the difference between a field goal attempt and a punt). Which offers the 'Riders some obvious room for improvement - but holds out the potential that the 'Riders could blow out their conference final opponent without much change from how they played yesterday.
Meanwhile, the defence was remarkably effective in slowing down Henry Burris. The defensive line surrounded Burris on most plays so that he couldn't generate big gains on the ground, while the secondary did a superb job shutting down deep routes and making quick tackles when Burris was forced to throw short. (In particular, credit has to go to Omarr Morgan, who regularly seemed to be in a better position to catch passes thrown his way than the Stamps' receivers.)
The price of that focus was yet another huge game for Joffrey Reynolds, and one would surely like to see a few more of his first-down runs stopped after 2-3 yards rather than watching another steady stream of 7-10-yard gains following broken initial tackles. But for this game at least, the 'Riders were able to firm up their defence nearly every time the Stampeders were within striking distance of the end zone. And allowing Reynolds some yardage closer to his own end of the field in exchange for limiting the Stamps' passing offence is probably a trade-off which any team will be glad to make.
Finally, special teams were largely a saw-off in yesterday's game, with no game-changing returns and only a few significant kicking plays. The Stamps managed to expose one weakness in when Sandro DeAngelis recovered his own kickoff in the third quarter, but it should be a fairly easy fix for the 'Riders to keep one player in front of the kicker to keep that from being repeated. Meanwhile, the 'Riders greatest strengths were ones which should remain effective for the rest of the season: in particular Louie Sakoda's punting and kicking is turning into a major boon for the team.
We'll find out next week who the 'Riders will end up facing in the West final. But the prospect of adding a few of the team's injured players back into the lineup after a game as strong as yesterday's has to serve as a great sign for the 'Riders' chances of turning a Calgary Grey Cup into an effective home game.
The biggest plus for Saskatchewan was the most consistent offensive game the team has put together in some time. While Andy Fantuz seems to have finally broken out as a superstar receiver, the rest of the team's success was once again based on balance between a number of threats, with five receivers and three rushers posting 24 or more yards of production.
About the only time the offense was ever bottled up was in the first quarter after the 'Riders' first touchdown - but by then the Stamps were already on their heels due to the 'Riders' lead. After that point, the 'Riders posted a grand total of one two-and-out the rest of the game to go with no turnovers and few significant losses of yardage (thanks largely to Darien Durant's creativity when the Stamps managed to get pressure on him). And that combination will usually ensure that a team at least stays in any game - or holds a lead once it exists.
What's more, even while winning the game by 16 the 'Riders had more near misses than their opponents when it came to piling up even more points. Several deep passing routes were no more than a stride away from turning into long TDs, while a couple of drives were stopped just short of field goal range (including one where a rare sack may have made the difference between a field goal attempt and a punt). Which offers the 'Riders some obvious room for improvement - but holds out the potential that the 'Riders could blow out their conference final opponent without much change from how they played yesterday.
Meanwhile, the defence was remarkably effective in slowing down Henry Burris. The defensive line surrounded Burris on most plays so that he couldn't generate big gains on the ground, while the secondary did a superb job shutting down deep routes and making quick tackles when Burris was forced to throw short. (In particular, credit has to go to Omarr Morgan, who regularly seemed to be in a better position to catch passes thrown his way than the Stamps' receivers.)
The price of that focus was yet another huge game for Joffrey Reynolds, and one would surely like to see a few more of his first-down runs stopped after 2-3 yards rather than watching another steady stream of 7-10-yard gains following broken initial tackles. But for this game at least, the 'Riders were able to firm up their defence nearly every time the Stampeders were within striking distance of the end zone. And allowing Reynolds some yardage closer to his own end of the field in exchange for limiting the Stamps' passing offence is probably a trade-off which any team will be glad to make.
Finally, special teams were largely a saw-off in yesterday's game, with no game-changing returns and only a few significant kicking plays. The Stamps managed to expose one weakness in when Sandro DeAngelis recovered his own kickoff in the third quarter, but it should be a fairly easy fix for the 'Riders to keep one player in front of the kicker to keep that from being repeated. Meanwhile, the 'Riders greatest strengths were ones which should remain effective for the rest of the season: in particular Louie Sakoda's punting and kicking is turning into a major boon for the team.
We'll find out next week who the 'Riders will end up facing in the West final. But the prospect of adding a few of the team's injured players back into the lineup after a game as strong as yesterday's has to serve as a great sign for the 'Riders' chances of turning a Calgary Grey Cup into an effective home game.
Friday, October 30, 2009
'Rider Tidbit of the Day
Ian Hamilton writes about the possibility that Wes Cates might be the only featured running back in the CFL to fall short of 1,000 yards on the season. But there's an even more interesting twist in the 'Riders' individual yardage totals: at their current per-game paces and taking into account Weston Dressler's injury, not a single 'Rider is on pace to notch 1,000 yards rushing or receiving this year (though Cates, Rob Bagg and Andy Fantuz may be within striking distance), even as the team ranks second in the CFL in points scored.
So how rare is that kind of combination in a contending team? CFL.ca has lists of the league's leaderboards going back to 2002 - and here's the full list of teams who haven't had a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver at the end of a season since then:
2007 Toronto - 11-7 record (thanks to the league's best defence), 340 points (4th)
2007 Hamilton - 3-15 record, 315 points (8th)
2006 Hamilton - 4-14 record, 292 points (8th)
2002 B.C. - 10-8 record, 480 points (4th)
I'm somewhat surprised that there are as many winning teams as losing ones on the list. But it's fairly clear that the three recent examples don't involve teams which won because of their offence.
Which makes the comparison to the 2002 Lions particularly interesting. They too had a veteran bruiser at tailback who contributed by catching passes as well as running (Sean Millington), along with a running quarterback who ate up enough yardage to give the team an effective ground game even without a top rusher (Damon Allen). And more importantly, they also relied on a deep group of receivers (four with 735 or more yards) to make up for the lack of any huge individual numbers: Geroy Simon was just a year away from breaking out as a CFL superstar, Jason Clermont made a solid CFL debut, former All-Star Alfred Jackson had one last productive season, and Ryan Thelwell led the team with 815 yards receiving in his second year in the CFL.
Now, there's a case to be made that Saskatchewan may have even more room to grow based on the number of options it's managed to develop within its offence. Unlike the Lions, the 'Riders aren't counting on a declining star as one of their top options - and while the 'Riders have relied mostly on three receivers rather than four, they also boast a second tier of receiving threats (Getzlaf, Walker and Clermont) to keep opponents guessing even more. But even if that doesn't turn out, the 'Riders would surely be happy to follow the path the Lions took in the years that followed their 2002 season.
So how rare is that kind of combination in a contending team? CFL.ca has lists of the league's leaderboards going back to 2002 - and here's the full list of teams who haven't had a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver at the end of a season since then:
2007 Toronto - 11-7 record (thanks to the league's best defence), 340 points (4th)
2007 Hamilton - 3-15 record, 315 points (8th)
2006 Hamilton - 4-14 record, 292 points (8th)
2002 B.C. - 10-8 record, 480 points (4th)
I'm somewhat surprised that there are as many winning teams as losing ones on the list. But it's fairly clear that the three recent examples don't involve teams which won because of their offence.
Which makes the comparison to the 2002 Lions particularly interesting. They too had a veteran bruiser at tailback who contributed by catching passes as well as running (Sean Millington), along with a running quarterback who ate up enough yardage to give the team an effective ground game even without a top rusher (Damon Allen). And more importantly, they also relied on a deep group of receivers (four with 735 or more yards) to make up for the lack of any huge individual numbers: Geroy Simon was just a year away from breaking out as a CFL superstar, Jason Clermont made a solid CFL debut, former All-Star Alfred Jackson had one last productive season, and Ryan Thelwell led the team with 815 yards receiving in his second year in the CFL.
Now, there's a case to be made that Saskatchewan may have even more room to grow based on the number of options it's managed to develop within its offence. Unlike the Lions, the 'Riders aren't counting on a declining star as one of their top options - and while the 'Riders have relied mostly on three receivers rather than four, they also boast a second tier of receiving threats (Getzlaf, Walker and Clermont) to keep opponents guessing even more. But even if that doesn't turn out, the 'Riders would surely be happy to follow the path the Lions took in the years that followed their 2002 season.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging
There was plenty of good news for the 'Riders in last night's win over Toronto. But while an underwhelming victory over a weak team counts for just as much in the standings as any other win, there were a couple of obvious problems which the 'Riders will have to fix in order to keep adding wins against their tougher opponents to come.
The best news for the game was almost certainly the offence's performance in the first half. After a couple of games where the offence had struggled early, the 'Riders managed to turn their first five possessions into four touchdowns and a drive into what would normally be field-goal range, racking up what would prove to be enough points to take the game by making use of nearly every weapon at the team's disposal.
And it's a good thing the offence managed to give the team that cushion to work with, as it was once again nowhere near as effective after halftime. The 'Riders' running game took some time off the clock with a few first downs in the third quarter, but the passing attack was thoroughly ineffective until the latter half of the fourth quarter. And while that late-game resurgence was enough to put the game away by adding another 3 points on the scoreboard while running most of the remaining time off the clock, it has to be worrisome that the team once again showed little inclination to put its opponent away earlier.
Meanwhile, the defence had a generally effective game, if not one to write home about. Ideally one would prefer to see the 'Riders control the run a bit better, as both Jamal Robertson and Jeff Johnson managed to put up some significant yardage. But those two never figured to be able to win the game on their own; instead, the real danger was Kerry Joseph, and the 'Riders managed to bottle him up on the ground throughout the game and anticipate much of his passing game beginning in the second quarter. There was still some room for improvement, as the Argos missed obvious opportunities due to both dropped passes and inaccurate throws - but in the end the 'Riders didn't give up more than they could afford, which has to be the ultimate goal.
And then there are the special teams, where the 'Riders have swapped out one major weakness for another. On the bright side, while Ian Hamilton describes Jason Armstead as "returning to form", I'd take a step beyond that. While Armstead has long been a dangerous all-or-nothing threat, I can't ever remember him being as consistently effective as he has this season. Which means that while it would be a bonus for him to indeed break a return or two to the end zone, the most important message the team can send is to make sure he keeps doing what he's doing to give the 'Riders better field position throughout the game rather than hinting that he should take more chances in order to score points himself.
Unfortunately, the 'Riders also faced one major problem in the battle for field position, as the punting took far more of a hit in Jamie Boreham's absence than I'd expected. That's particularly disappointing since Luca Congi managed to blast the ball when he had the chance to punt in the pre-season - but returning to the role now, he struggled with both distance and direction. And that may force the 'Riders into another strategic change if Boreham is out for long (and Congi stays in the role), as I'd have to figure it'll be worth trying a few more third-down gambles from the opponents' side of half if we can't expect to gain much yardage from a punt anyway. Or alternatively they may need to look at bringing in another punter, though the likelihood of finding a major upgrade may be low at this point in the season.
Needless to say, the 'Riders' next challenge in Calgary looks to be a far more difficult one than the Argos were able to pose last night. But the game plan shouldn't be all that different: like last night the main goals will be to keep an athletic quarterback from getting into positions where he can make plays on his own, while using a variety of weapons to find the weak points in an aggressive defence. And if the 'Riders can piece together a more effective punting game and stay more consistent on offence, it shouldn't be out of the question for the same strategy to help propel the team to the top of the West standings.
The best news for the game was almost certainly the offence's performance in the first half. After a couple of games where the offence had struggled early, the 'Riders managed to turn their first five possessions into four touchdowns and a drive into what would normally be field-goal range, racking up what would prove to be enough points to take the game by making use of nearly every weapon at the team's disposal.
And it's a good thing the offence managed to give the team that cushion to work with, as it was once again nowhere near as effective after halftime. The 'Riders' running game took some time off the clock with a few first downs in the third quarter, but the passing attack was thoroughly ineffective until the latter half of the fourth quarter. And while that late-game resurgence was enough to put the game away by adding another 3 points on the scoreboard while running most of the remaining time off the clock, it has to be worrisome that the team once again showed little inclination to put its opponent away earlier.
Meanwhile, the defence had a generally effective game, if not one to write home about. Ideally one would prefer to see the 'Riders control the run a bit better, as both Jamal Robertson and Jeff Johnson managed to put up some significant yardage. But those two never figured to be able to win the game on their own; instead, the real danger was Kerry Joseph, and the 'Riders managed to bottle him up on the ground throughout the game and anticipate much of his passing game beginning in the second quarter. There was still some room for improvement, as the Argos missed obvious opportunities due to both dropped passes and inaccurate throws - but in the end the 'Riders didn't give up more than they could afford, which has to be the ultimate goal.
And then there are the special teams, where the 'Riders have swapped out one major weakness for another. On the bright side, while Ian Hamilton describes Jason Armstead as "returning to form", I'd take a step beyond that. While Armstead has long been a dangerous all-or-nothing threat, I can't ever remember him being as consistently effective as he has this season. Which means that while it would be a bonus for him to indeed break a return or two to the end zone, the most important message the team can send is to make sure he keeps doing what he's doing to give the 'Riders better field position throughout the game rather than hinting that he should take more chances in order to score points himself.
Unfortunately, the 'Riders also faced one major problem in the battle for field position, as the punting took far more of a hit in Jamie Boreham's absence than I'd expected. That's particularly disappointing since Luca Congi managed to blast the ball when he had the chance to punt in the pre-season - but returning to the role now, he struggled with both distance and direction. And that may force the 'Riders into another strategic change if Boreham is out for long (and Congi stays in the role), as I'd have to figure it'll be worth trying a few more third-down gambles from the opponents' side of half if we can't expect to gain much yardage from a punt anyway. Or alternatively they may need to look at bringing in another punter, though the likelihood of finding a major upgrade may be low at this point in the season.
Needless to say, the 'Riders' next challenge in Calgary looks to be a far more difficult one than the Argos were able to pose last night. But the game plan shouldn't be all that different: like last night the main goals will be to keep an athletic quarterback from getting into positions where he can make plays on his own, while using a variety of weapons to find the weak points in an aggressive defence. And if the 'Riders can piece together a more effective punting game and stay more consistent on offence, it shouldn't be out of the question for the same strategy to help propel the team to the top of the West standings.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
'Rider Tidbit of the Day
It doesn't seem to have received much notice so far, but let's point out that one of the Saskatchewan Roughriders' strengths this season has been the sheer number of effective receivers. In the team's 10 games so far the 'Riders have had 7 different leading receivers, including Weston Dressler (games 1, 2 and 8), Andy Fantuz (game 3), Rob Bagg (games 4 and 6), Chris Getzlaf (game 5), Jason Clermont (game 7), Wes Cates (game 9) and Gerran Walker (game 10). And it's not out of the question that a few more names could find their way onto the list by the end of the season: Stu Foord, Hugh Charles, Jason Armstead, Johnny Quinn, Eric Morris and Adam Nicolson all have the potential to put up a high-double-digit yardage total or more given the opportunity to make some catches, and of course Matt Dominguez is still waiting in the wings.
All of which means that the 'Riders had no trouble making teams pay for playing off any of their receivers. And that only figures to make it easier for the players like Dressler, Fantuz and Cates who normally demand extra attention to find openings that the 'Riders' opponents can't afford to give them.
All of which means that the 'Riders had no trouble making teams pay for playing off any of their receivers. And that only figures to make it easier for the players like Dressler, Fantuz and Cates who normally demand extra attention to find openings that the 'Riders' opponents can't afford to give them.
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