The latest putative entrant in the leadership race is Pat Stogran - well-known for challenging the Harper Cons' callous treatment of veterans in his role as veterans' ombudsman.
So how does Stogran fit into a field of current MPs and longtime activists, particularly when his own goal is largely to raise issues?
Strengths
The primary advantage Stogran brings to the race is the combination of broader name recognition and perceived media credibility. It's not clear exactly how familiar he'll be to the public, but between a prominently-featured book and a number of media appearances he seems at least to be enjoying slightly more attention than his competitors.
In addition, Stogran has staked out some policy turf for himself with a focus on veterans' issues, open government and managerial experience.
Weaknesses
That said, Stogran faces a steep hill to climb in pursuing the NDP's leadership. All of his opponents have multiple terms of experience as MPs and a long history of political organization. In contrast, Stogran's introduction has included mention of his own unfamiliarity with the political process in general as well as the NDP in particular.
What's more, Stogran's inexperience has manifested itself in some dubious messaging, including reinforcing other parties' talking points about the NDP's economic credibility. It's difficult enough to win over the membership of a party as an outsider; it figures to be even tougher when part of the pitch is one which party members are likely to see as a tired and hostile line of criticism.
Key Indicator
While Stogran will surely need to win over some existing NDP members, it's hard to see how he has much of a path to victory among party loyalists. With that in mind, the key figure for him will be the number of new party members he can sign up (presumably with a heavy focus on veterans as a constituency): if he's going to mount a serious challenge, he needs to bring people into the NDP tent who wouldn't make the effort to join otherwise.
Key Opponent
In order to generate any traction as an outside voice on the economy and governance, Stogran will at least need to show more command of the subjects than his competitors. And that sets up a noteworthy contrast with Guy Caron.
If Stogran can meaningfully challenge Caron's themes to the same effect, his critique may resonate somewhat - shaking loose some down-ballot voters while weakening the strongest competitor for governance-based ballots. But if he can't, any continued criticism of the NDP's ability to govern will serve only to alienate members while providing a boost to Caron in defending the party's qualifications.
Plausible Outcomes
Best-case: A strong influx of new members which pushes him onto multiple ballots and allows for growth in an anything-can-happen scenario
Worst-case: A last-place leadership campaign finish based on a lack of membership support, coupled with a failure to establish a place within the NDP generally
I think Strogran will possibly have a strong appeal for the more centrist elements within the NDP especially on the Praires and places like Hamilton Ontario.
ReplyDeleteIf Guy Caron beats him on the first and second ballot I think alot of Strogran's support could shift to Guy.
I find Stogran interesting because he really bucks the stereotype of NDP leadership contenders, you just don't expect a retired Colonel,which is just under Brigider-General in rank, to run for the NDP.
His perspective is so different from the other leadership contenders, that it should liven up the debates and the race, and provide a unique perspective that is lacking in the race.
The challenge for Stogran is that I'm not sure I see a lot of overlap between "centrist elements" and "people looking for an outsider" - Mulcair won over much of that group due to his political experience, which is a weakness for Stogran.
DeleteBut I do think Stogran should have plenty to add to the campaign, particularly by making sure the other candidates have to address a wider range of ideas than are being presented so far. And I hope he'll get the chance to join his fellow candidates in caucus when all is said and done.
I think Strogran will possibly have a strong appeal for the more centrist elements within the NDP especially on the Praires and places like Hamilton Ontario.
ReplyDeleteIf Guy Caron beats him on the first and second ballot I think alot of Strogran's support could shift to Guy.
I find Stogran interesting because he really bucks the stereotype of NDP leadership contenders, you just don't expect a retired Colonel,which is just under Brigider-General in rank, to run for the NDP.
His perspective is so different from the other leadership contenders, that it should liven up the debates and the race, and provide a unique perspective that is lacking in the race.