So far, media coverage of Guy Caron's NDP leadership campaign has focused largely on one note (that being his basic income proposal). But there's plenty more to his candidacy - and he may well emerge as the party's favourite when it comes time to vote.
Strengths
Both Caron's core campaign promise and his signature issues in Parliament (including fighting tax evasion and facilitating family transfers of small businesses) connect to his theme of economic competence. And the primary message he's conveying to NDP voters is indeed that he can both help reframe the debate on economic issues, and provide an answer to anybody questioning the NDP's strength in that area.
But in case anybody feared that Caron would be limited to talking numbers, he's had plenty of answers so far - offering both personal stories, and strong responses in every policy area covered. And in particular, Caron has offered both the most pointed critiques and best one-liners in responding to the Trudeau Libs.
Weaknesses
The most significant issue for the moment looks to be a mismatch between Caron's current communication skills and the NDP's pool of voters. Caron's substantive comments are no less strong in English than in French. But for the moment, his accent is just thick enough to require some effort to work through - giving him a greater degree of difficulty in reaching most of the voters he needs to win over.
It also remains to be seen how much political infrastructure Caron can assemble behind him compared to the longer-tenured MPs in the race - though I wouldn't expect that to be a huge issue as the campaign develops.
Key Indicator
Based on the above, I'll be watching for Caron's favourability outside Quebec. If he's within range of his fellow candidates, that should serve as an indication that he's made it over any language barrier and thus has room to grow.
Key Opponent
Caron's best-case scenario involves being able to appeal on later ballots to voters who have both an inclination toward policy, and a strong interest in a leader with Quebec ties. Since Peter Julian's base fits both bills, he looms as the candidate Caron most needs to surpass.
Plausible Outcomes
Best-case: Enough early support to reach the final ballot, where Caron would have a strong chance of emerging as a compromise candidate
Worst-case: A fourth-place finish, as higher membership numbers from the West and Ontario outweigh Caron's home-province support
I think the Quebec issue is a much bigger challenge for the Anglo Candiatates then one would think at first because there will likely be fear that someone from outside Quebec, especially lacking in the Quebec roots Jack Layton had, could very well lose Quebec, especially if the Tories pick Bernier, because that gives both the Tories and Liberals a leader from Quebec.
ReplyDeleteSo if Bernier wins the Tory leadership, that puts the NDP in that much more pressure to pick someone from Quebec as well, giving Guy Caron an extra advantage if Dippers fear they are at increased risk of losing seats in Quebec, not just in Quebec, but in the RoC as Anglo members know they need Quebec to even be in the race for Prime Minister.
Also important to note is that Basic Income is an idea which impacts issues as broad as education, income inequality, a changing economy, the unemployed, taking the risk to start a small business, domestic violence (having resources makes leaving a violent partner easier, and it neutral in regards to gender, sex, and sexual orientation unlike shelters that focus on Hetrosexual women almost exclusively), and reaching beyond the NDPs base of support. So it allows him to really own a single policy, where it ends up linked with him, but it connects to so many other issues in so many ways, it has versatile.
It allows Caron to project easily grasped policy focus, it not cluttered, like putting out a ton of policies, but it has flexiblity as well.
Of course in time he will roll out other policies, Basic Income can't do everything, but he can afford to make BI his centre piece, and then over time expand to some other key ideas, such as how he plans to tackle climate change.
On both counts, I'd think voters' perceptions of Julian will be key. If RoC members see him as sufficiently "from Quebec" to have at least as good a chance of holding onto seats (and remember that he has multiple caucus supporters from the province), and if Julian continues to foster more policy discussion than the policy wonk candidate, then those factors could limit Caron's prospects. But you're right that they could also work in his favour.
DeleteI think the Quebec issue is a much bigger challenge for the Anglo Candiatates then one would think at first because there will likely be fear that someone from outside Quebec, especially lacking in the Quebec roots Jack Layton had, could very well lose Quebec, especially if the Tories pick Bernier, because that gives both the Tories and Liberals a leader from Quebec.
ReplyDeleteSo if Bernier wins the Tory leadership, that puts the NDP in that much more pressure to pick someone from Quebec as well, giving Guy Caron an extra advantage if Dippers fear they are at increased risk of losing seats in Quebec, not just in Quebec, but in the RoC as Anglo members know they need Quebec to even be in the race for Prime Minister.
Also important to note is that Basic Income is an idea which impacts issues as broad as education, income inequality, a changing economy, the unemployed, taking the risk to start a small business, domestic violence (having resources makes leaving a violent partner easier, and it neutral in regards to gender, sex, and sexual orientation unlike shelters that focus on Hetrosexual women almost exclusively), and reaching beyond the NDPs base of support. So it allows him to really own a single policy, where it ends up linked with him, but it connects to so many other issues in so many ways, it has versatile.
It allows Caron to project easily grasped policy focus, it not cluttered, like putting out a ton of policies, but it has flexiblity as well.
Of course in time he will roll out other policies, Basic Income can't do everything, but he can afford to make BI his centre piece, and then over time expand to some other key ideas, such as how he plans to tackle climate change.