Saturday, March 31, 2012

On regional impacts

Back here, I pointed out the prairie numbers from Forum Research's poll about Canada's federal leaders as an indication that the NDP has plenty of opportunity to grow after electing Thomas Mulcair as leader. But Volkov points out the fact that the NDP's chances of making major gains in western Canada look even better based on Forum's party preference data:



That's right: at least one poll reflecting immediate reactions to Mulcair shows a 44-41 lead for the NDP in Manitoba and Saskatchewan which would flip a dozen seats from Con to NDP hands, along with 30%+ support for the NDP in every region of the country (including Alberta which would see three more seats go to the NDP).

Of course, the usual caveats about a single poll apply. But at the very least, there's little evidence that western voters see the NDP's direction under Mulcair as any less a plus than the rest of Canada. And if the Cons are indeed forced to play defence in the West, that should work wonders for the NDP's ability to win over voters in what looks to be the ultimate battleground of Ontario.

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