Guest Post: The Progressive Consensus

Last week, I pointed out Greg Lyle's polling showing that the NDP's brand of social democracy enjoys plenty of popular support as a primary value system for a party seeking to form government. But reader Dan Tan looked at the numbers in a bit more detail and with an eye toward consensus rather than mere initial support - and found that taking into account respondents who are neutral on (and thus at worst open to) NDP policies, there's potential to unite a striking number of progressive voters of various party stripes behind the values long promoted by the NDP.

So without any further ado, here's Dan (edited slightly for formatting):

*----------- BACKGROUND -----------*

The Edmonton Journal (among others) recently commissioned a poll on Canadian attitudes from a conservative pollster named Greg Lyle. Based on the findings of Innovative Research Group Inc., the following article was published.

Unfortunately, the article was very misleading & over-editorialized. More importantly, it suffered from a major misunderstanding of a specific answer in the poll. This led the newspaper author (Peter O'Neil) to reach false conclusions (explained further, later).

The poll itself actually contains results which are of great value to NDP members. That's remarkable, given the fact that the sample could easily skew "small c" conservative...by virtue of who the pollster is. That's why it complements a previous Ekos poll (one that is accused of skewing "small l" by detractors).

The following is an analysis I have carried out myself based on the
raw polling data.

*----------- CONTEXT -----------*

To provide some context, the voting intentions of those polled breaks down in the following manner:
Undecided: 10%
Conservatives: 33%
NDP: 22%
Liberal: 21%
Greens: 6%
Bloc: 6%

Of course, the purpose of this poll is not to predict the election. The actual value comes from specific policy statements posed to voters. Furthermore, the polling firm has provided a breakdown of how specific groups answered each question. The groups most important to the NDP are:
- Truly Uncommitted
- 2nd Choice NDP
- Soft NDP
- Firm NDP

*----------- PURPOSE -----------*

These are the various groups who constitute the "progressive majority". Thomas Mulcair has expressed an intent to reach out to these folks through a "re-branding" of NDP policies & communications. But before that happens, this poll allows us to see how the target-audience *already* feels about these important issues.

We'll only examine the most important questions. Currently, the economy is the over-riding concern of the broader population. These are the selected policy statements we'll focus on:
- The government should discourage the export of raw natural resources and encourage the use of those resources to create jobs here in Canada.
- We need to raise taxes on the rich and big business to ensure they pay their fair share.
- The federal government should encourage the growth of unions in Canada.
- The federal government must take action to close the gap between rich and poor in Canada.

We'll also interpret the answers accurately. These were the various reactions to each policy statement:
- Strongly agree
- Somewhat agree
- Neither agree nor disagree
- Somewhat disagree
- Strongly disagree

*----------- MISUNDERSTANDING -----------*

The problem with the 'Edmonton Journal' article was that it misunderstood what the answer "neither agree nor disagree" actually meant. In this poll, the answer means: "I won't stand in your way, whatever you do on this issue".

In a "sleight of hand", the 'Edmonton Journal' either grouped these folks in the "disagree" camp, or they ignored them altogether. By doing this, they drew false conclusions (ie. "the survey found cool support for unions", "avoid old NDP jargon about 'brothers and sisters'" etc.).

The 'Edmonton Journal' article treated each issue as a technical referendum question. So in a referendum, the issue is decided by voters who firmly "agree" or "disagree". Meanwhile, voters who think "I won't stand in your way, whatever you do on this issue" are not counted at all.

But that is not how elections or our parliament work. In an election, those who say "neither agree nor disagree" still count as voters. And their in-action has a dramatic effect on the composition & stability of a government.

It is vitally important for the NDP to understand this: These folks have specifically chosen not to "disagree" with the following policy statements. That means the policies will not influence their vote....and in effect, the party has tacit approval to implement those policies.

*----------- TACIT APPROVAL OF NDP POLICIES -----------*

*1) "The government should discourage the export of raw natural resources and encourage the use of those resources to create jobs here in Canada."*

Truly Uncommitted - Tacit Approval: 86%
(Strongly agree: 39%, Somewhat agree: 24%, Neither agree nor disagree: 23%)
2nd Choice NDP - Tacit Approval: 95%
(Strongly agree: 43%, Somewhat agree: 38%, Neither agree nor disagree: 14%)
Soft NDP - Tacit Approval: 95%
(Strongly agree: 49%, Somewhat agree: 36%, Neither agree nor disagree: 10%)
Firm NDP - Tacit Approval: 96%
(Strongly agree: 57%, Somewhat agree: 32%, Neither agree nor disagree: 7%)

*2) We need to raise taxes on the rich and big business to ensure they pay their fair share.*

Truly Uncommitted - Tacit Approval: 85%
(Strongly agree: 44%, Somewhat agree: 25%, Neither agree nor disagree: 16%)
2nd Choice NDP - Tacit Approval: 83%
(Strongly agree: 54%, Somewhat agree: 17%, Neither agree nor disagree: 12%)
Soft NDP - Tacit Approval: 95%
(Strongly agree: 52%, Somewhat agree: 32%, Neither agree nor disagree: 11%)
Firm NDP - Tacit Approval: 94%
(Strongly agree: 64%, Somewhat agree: 22%, Neither agree nor disagree: 8%)

*3) The federal government should encourage the growth of unions in Canada.*

Truly Uncommitted - Tacit Approval: 52%
(Strongly agree: 9%, Somewhat agree: 7%, Neither agree nor disagree: 36%)
2nd Choice NDP - Tacit Approval: 58%
(Strongly agree: 15%, Somewhat agree: 19%, Neither agree nor disagree: 24%)
Soft NDP - Tacit Approval: 70%
(Strongly agree: 19%, Somewhat agree: 24%, Neither agree nor disagree: 27%)
Firm NDP - Tacit Approval: 89%
(Strongly agree: 30%, Somewhat agree: 20%, Neither agree nor disagree: 29%)

*4) The federal government must take action to close the gap between rich and poor in Canada.*

Truly Uncommitted - Tacit Approval: 90%
(Strongly agree: 40%, Somewhat agree: 35%, Neither agree nor disagree: 15%)
2nd Choice NDP - Tacit Approval: 87%
(Strongly agree: 59%, Somewhat agree: 22%, Neither agree nor disagree: 6%)
Soft NDP - Tacit Approval: 97%
(Strongly agree: 55%, Somewhat agree: 29%, Neither agree nor disagree: 13%)
Firm NDP - Tacit Approval: 99%
(Strongly agree: 79%, Somewhat agree: 7%, Neither agree nor disagree: 13%)

*----------- CONCLUSION -----------*

As has already been explained, tacit approval indicates the leeway a leader has to implement actual policies.

As the polling data shows, a majority of "the progressive majority" would be content with the implementation of fundamental NDP economic policies.

The open question is WHO should implement those policies. This same poll indicates that progressive voters are evenly divided between the Liberals and NDP.

Thomas Mulcair aims to break the tie by professionalizing the NDP. Along with Peggy Nash, he has called for the national body to adequately fund all riding associations. He also pointed to Craig Scott as an example of the type of high-profile candidate the party wishes to recruit across Canada.

NDP members can easily rally around such an effort by our leader. But should our leader attempt to alter our fundamental economic policies, he will be doing so without any justification.