Leadership 2012 - Saganash Bows Out

In my most recent leadership candidate rankings, I mentioned that I still saw a possible path to victory for Romeo Saganash. To expand slightly on what I'd planned to turn into a more substantive post, that view was based on the possibility that he could effectively put into practice Tarik Brahmi's theory of a Stephane Dion-style victory - with a stellar resume and strong issue focus combining to overcome the lack of a top-tier campaign organization and a lack of soundbite-friendliness in English. (And I'm not sure the comparison would have been a fatal one, as a party which recognizes the value of an opportunity to form government wouldn't have been as quick to throw a new leader under the bus as the Libs were with Dion.)

Now, Saganash is apparently set to announce that he's dropping out of the race. So what will effect will that have on the rest of the candidates?

The timing of Saganash's departure means that his campaign should have already managed to sign up most of the prospective members who had any interest in joining the NDP for the purpose of supporting him. And the result may be to significantly tighten the race among the top six candidates - as Niki Ashton and Nathan Cullen figure to be natural magnets for First Nations and rural votes to the extent they can keep Saganash's new members interested in the campaign.

Meanwhile, there's bound to be plenty of speculation about Saganash eventually backing Brian Topp (as rumoured before he entered the race initially). But whether or not that endorsement materializes, the biggest advantage for Topp in Saganash's departure may be the fact that he's now the only Quebec-based candidate left other than Thomas Mulcair. That figures to provide Topp with a unique narrative about bridging any gap between the party's new Quebec MPs and its longstanding national base as the leadership vote approaches - giving him a much better chance to emerge from the field than if voters concerned that the next leader should be from Quebec but uncertain of Mulcair had a third option.