On poll positions

There have already been a few polls released surrounding the NDP leadership race, and there figure to be many more to come in the next few months. So I'll take a moment to explain why I haven't spent any time discussing the ones released so far - and how I'll be determining which ones are worth a mention as we approach the March convention.

At this stage of the race, I'd consider it effectively futile to poll about voting preferences in a field of candidates that hasn't yet been set. Instead, about all I'd see any poll accomplishing is to determine which candidates are actually known to the general public (which will be the primary factor in preference polls at this stage), and how the candidates rate in terms of favourability such as to be able to build positive impressions as they become better known.

If a poll shows something noteworthy in terms of familiarity or favourability, I'll consider it to be worth a mention at this point. But so far, none of the polling has produced anything of the sort.

It's only once the field of candidates is set and the race has received enough media attention to build a level of familiarity with all of the candidates that I'd shift gears somewhat and start looking at voter preferences. But even there, it's well worth keeping in mind that the leadership vote won't be conducted under a first-past-the-post system: the fact that a candidate leads among first-choice voters won't do much good if there's reason to think that another candidate is better positioned to assemble a majority of membership votes on a later ballot, and so we'll need to look at the complete picture (including general favourability as well as similarities in issues and messages between candidates) to determine who actually holds the advantage.

All of which is to say that for now, there doesn't figure to be much polling worth taking too seriously. Instead, what matters most at this point is the organization each candidate can assemble to win over members when it counts.