Post-Election Questions: The Conservatives

As promised, let's take a look at what looks to be the biggest question facing each of Canada's political parties after Monday's election, starting with the one which will now have a majority government:

What happens as Stephen Harper moves past a siege mentality?

So far, many of the defining characteristics of the Harper Cons' time in government have been inextricably tied to the perception that in a minority Parliament, any misstep could be Stephen Harper's last. That culture of fear within the Cons has served as much of the explanation for both their extreme attacks on other parties, and Harper's obsessive need to control the message at all times.

Now, though, Harper too will need to start planning for a majority-based election cycle rather than focusing quite so much attention on clamping down from day to day. And he'll face a choice in how he prioritizes any instinct to try to match Canada's existing values for political benefit compared to his desire to persuade the public to shift to the right.

If Harper's priority is indeed to establish the Cons as the natural governing party in Canada's current political system, then he'll need to try to make the case that he and his party can fit comfortably into the government apparatus rather than spending four more years railing against anybody who wanders within shouting distance. Such a strategy would entail putting at least a modicum of effort into building positive relationships with the civil service, taking a less adversarial tone with non-partisan institutions, and offering up at least some policies which are perceived as outflanking one or more parties to Harper's left in the hope that voters will develop a more positive perception of Harper and his party in elections to come based on the perception that he's moving toward their values.

On the other hand, Harper may prefer to try to drag the range of acceptable political discussion as far to the right as he can in a four-year term on the theory that his electoral prospects will benefit as a result even if he has to suffer some setbacks in the meantime. That would likely involve taking the reins off of his party's more colourful back-benchers to try to shift the window of political discussion to the right, while putting even more work into trying to de-fund and delegitimize dissenting views in the hope that another four years will be long enough to push them off the scene entirely.

This week, Harper is looking to send the message that he's aiming for the former. But since we know better than to believe a Con message of post-election detente, we'll have to reserve judgment as to which he'll ultimately choose - and that decision will set the tone for the next four years.