On strategic considerations

A word of caution to Murray Dobbin and others pointing to strategic voting sites in hopes of stopping the Cons. While I'm not a huge fan of the concept generally, I'll strongly suggest that anybody wanting to vote strategically at least take into account the changes in party preferences and campaign momentum (which are all too often disregarded by defensive voting advocates) in deciding how to cast a ballot.

After all, a close two-way Con/Lib race from 2008 probably won't have held its shape now that the Libs have declined further and the NDP has boosted its popular support across the country. (Indeed, most of the closest races from 2008 were in ridings which weren't seen as strategic voting targets before that campaign began.) And in many cases, there may be a better chance of building a plurality of support based on the NDP's surge than of getting anywhere throwing ballots at a declining Lib vote total.

As cases in point, let's take a look at Buckets' list of recommended ridings and compare the recommendations to how votes actually figure to be switching.

In Guelph, the Libs and NDP both ran slightly behind their provincial average in 2008 (32% to 33% and 16% to 18%, respectively). But with the latest polls showing the NDP somewhere between even with and slightly ahead of the Libs in Ontario as a whole, one would expect a similar dead heat in Guelph. So one can just as easily argue that the strategic vote is NDP if one believes (as seems to be the case) that momentum built during a campaign is more likely than not to continue to election day.

Likewise in Kitchener Centre, both of the parties were roughly even with their provincial polling averages - meaning that the logical starting point based on current support levels is to figure that they're about even, and vote based on who's more likely to add momentum during the campaign.

And plenty more ridings on the list could tip into the NDP's column if its late-starting Ontario momentum builds into a few extra points tomorrow, while showing little possibility of going to a Lib party which has lost a quarter of its Ontario support from 2008.

Indeed, the biggest reason why the Cons are in trouble now is that they've tried to re-fight the 2008 campaign while Canadians' preferences have changed in the meantime. And it would be downright tragic if Harper is able to win his desired majority thanks to progressive voters who make the same mistake.

So the best advice in such ridings looks to be to ignore the murky strategic possibilities and vote for one's actual preference - because a vote will be doubly damaging if it's cast for what one perceives to be merely the lesser evil, but also ends up backfiring from a strategic standpoint.