On leadership

Gerald Caplan's election post-mortem is worth a read. But I can't help but to think he's utterly missed one factor that gives the NDP a far better chance of overtaking the Harper Cons than any recent incarnation of the Libs:

Then there’s the less high-falutin business of down-and-dirty politics. Progressives of all stripes must never underestimate this little caper of Jack’s massage. The smear of Jack Layton by the powerful the Sun Media chain is only the tiniest tip of the iceberg of garbage that would be thrown at any liberal party that had the slightest chance of forming a government. The history of the Rae government is the model to study – a systematic, relentless gang-up of various media, businesses of all sizes, government-relations firms, bond-rating agencies, many professionals, and lots of insubordinate cops, including senior ones. Even respectable sources can be expected to join the fray, as shown by the recent story in this very paper agreeing that Mr. Layton was smeared by the Sun but insisting that, after all, it was a true smear.

The other side plays for keeps. They believe they’re in a war and act accordingly. They smear, lie, malign, distort, divide, terrify, destroy. They play it the American Way, as Michael Ignatieff can testify. It’s like Jon Stewart versus the Tea Party. He’s clever, knowledgeable and adorable and wins debating points. They’re vicious and unscrupulous and win the war.

While there's no doubt that the Cons and their media cronies can be counted on to leave no mud unflung, there's a key difference between their attempts to smear Layton and their ruthless campaigns against the last couple of Lib leaders.

Unlike the Libs' new leaders (including whoever they end up choosing next), Layton isn't starting from a position where he's largely undefined with the Canadian public. Instead, he's been the most positively-perceived leader in Canadian politics for the better part of the past decade. And his position only seems to have been strengthened as Layton won more public attention through this year's campaign:

Marzolini was gobsmacked. “I’ve never seen in 580 election campaigns anybody as popular as Jack Layton ... Basically, he was on a par with Don Cherry in the eyes of Canadians. He was right up there with David Suzuki and Canadians think Suzuki walks on water.”

Which isn't to say that I'd expect Layton's stratospheric positive impressions to stay entirely in place now and 2015 as he becomes the chief focus of the Cons' attacks.

But Layton's stature as a well-defined and well-respected leader among the general public gives him a far better chance of weathering the storm than any new leader facing the Cons' usual attack-ad blitz - as Layton himself demonstrated as he came under attack at the end of the election campaign. And the fact that the Cons will have a much tougher time getting negative impressions to stick to Layton makes for reason to see the NDP's rise as a plus for the chances of toppling Harper next time out.