Just

It's been obvious for over two years that much of the election campaign we're now seeing would be spent discussing the Cons' attempts to fearmonger about the prospect of a coalition government. And I've pointed out before that the Libs' strategy - ranging from failing to defend the idea to outright ruling it out - is self-defeating in numerous ways: it abandons an opportunity to campaign from a lead position, suppresses any hope that a change of government is in sight, and allows Stephen Harper and his party to skate around what should be some damning history.

Now, we're seeing the absolute worst-case result for the Libs from their ill-fated choice - one that even I didn't see coming. But thankfully, it's actually the one that serves the interests of progressive Canadians the best.

The main explanation as to why the Libs weren't prepared to defend the idea of a coalition is that it would have provided progressive voters with a license to support the NDP as well or instead - resulting in the Libs failing to gain seats relative to the NDP even as both parties won enough to replace the Cons. And that was seen as unacceptable based on the Libs' usual position that they'd prefer to suppress the NDP and cling to their status as a default alternative rather than working on replacing Harper.

But a campaign focused on a widespread push in favour a coalition would have had some other consequences as well.

In particular, the Libs would have been able to point to the terms of the 2008 coalition agreement as a precedent for future discussion. That in turn would have led to pressure on Jack Layton and the NDP as to whether or not they'd be prepared to accept a Lib-led government. And based on the NDP's interest in seeing a change in government, the likely response would have ended up harnessing Layton's trust and popularity for a cause which would have seen the Liberals as the senior partner in a coalition.

But the Libs weren't interested in an alignment which would have allowed the NDP to join them in making gains. So instead, they foreclosed on any possibility that the NDP could serve as a junior coalition partner in the hope of snuffing the NDP out entirely - ensuring that the NDP would instead be evaluated in direct competition with the Libs.

Which hasn't exactly gone according to plan.

Not that the actual outcome should be too much of a surprise. After all, one could hardly expect that the NDP would answer the Libs' attacks by rolling over and playing dead - even if the strength of the NDP's response might go beyond what the Libs anticipated. And the combination of Jack Layton's personal popularity and a growing swell of NDP support in Quebec has been readily visible for years.

But the Libs once again counted on inertia to drive voters back into their camp if Harper was within reach of a majority - apparently without anticipating that the NDP might be able to build up enough strength to challenge them at levels where a majority isn't in sight.

And now, there's not much left in the Libs' arsenal for the balance of the campaign. They most certainly don't figure to gain any ground on the NDP from a policy platform which mostly reads as a pale imitation of NDP proposals, nor a health-care focus which ignores the fact that the NDP is more trusted on the issue. And even if the Cons do have another surge into majority territory left, it's going to be difficult for the Libs to argue that the NDP can't do at least as much to stem the tide.

Indeed, the Libs' best hope may yet be to flip-flop on their willingness to consider a coalition once again. But it seems more likely that they'll keep on bashing the strategic-voting drum as rhythmic accompaniment for their march to oblivion - and they can't be said to have earned anything but their just deserts in the process.