On weak responses

We've now seen a couple of days' worth of responses from the other political parties to the NDP's surge in Quebec. And as I'd suspected, there doesn't seem to be much in any of the answers to substantially dent the NDP's momentum.

From the Bloc, the response has been hinted at for some time, as Gilles Duceppe is now doubling down on trying to turn the election into yet another referendum.

But that doesn't figure to hold much appeal for anybody who's voted Bloc in the past based primarily on their apparent social democracy and desire to stop the Harper Cons rather than their preferences on the question of sovereignty. At best, it does at least represent a rational enough "save the furniture" strategy to try to prevent the NDP wave from completely wiping out the Bloc - but I doubt the NDP will complain much about splitting the Bloc's historic vote.

Meanwhile, the Cons look to be trying to pivot to meet the NDP while deviating as little as possible from their core campaign message, launching an ad that targets Layton directly on the possibility of a coalition.

But as I've noted before, there's plenty of reason to doubt that what ultimately amount to an attack on the ideas of planning and cooperation will actually win the day when it's tested in a campaign. And in fact, an assault on a leader who's actually willing to defend the idea of coalition may help Layton as much as it does Harper: for all the commentary about how Harper will happily accept an even split between people supporting and opposing a coalition if he gets one side lined up behind him, it's surely just as much of a plus for both the NDP and the cause of preventing a Con majority if the equal and opposing force coalesces behind Layton.

Finally, the Libs' answer has been to try to highlight experience in federal government as a difference between the two parties. Which looks to be the least effective response of the bunch for two key reasons.

First, by encouraging voters to compare the relative experience of the parties, the Libs are actually helping the NDP to pitch its own star candidates across the country.

Sure, the NDP hasn't governed nationally. But it boasts a leader who's served as part of the governing council of Canada's largest city, former provincial cabinet ministers in three provinces, and former provincial leaders in three more. And if the Libs want to highlight candidates like Marc Garneau and even Ignatieff himself as part of their "experienced" team without any actual time in office, then the NDP will be happy to raise them a Nycole Turmel, a Linda Duncan, a Romeo Saganash, a Lawrence Joseph, and so on.

But then, I'm not sure that would be the NDP's response unless the Libs stick their neck out even further. After all, the Libs' new message plays perfectly into the NDP's narrative about the other parties being stuck in the past while the NDP offers a change from the status quo.

In fact, all of the responses share that weakness to some extent, as they run head-on into NDP messages which have gained traction. The Bloc is looking to push sovereignty against a party whose Quebec appeal is based largely on a desire to move past that as the core question of the province's politics; the Cons are trying to fearmonger about coalitions against a leader whose popularity is centred on his willingness to work with others; and the Libs are arguing for their being part of "more of the same" against the party that's riding a wave of change.

Of course, it may be that one of the responses will end up working, or that something else will come along as the campaign draws to a close. But if the NDP's opponents don't have more of a counter to the Layton surge than they've shown so far, then there's little reason to think the NDP's progress is going to be stopped before election day.