Poll positioning

A few notes on the Ekos poll that seems to be dominating the conversation today...

First off, there's not much doubt that the NDP will want to be careful about putting too much stock in a single round of favourable polling. But it's worth noting that while the NDP's Ekos results are better than usual nationally (based mostly on the Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Atlantic Canada), they're also far from reflecting a best-case scenario across the board, with B.C. and Quebec in particular ranking as regions where the NDP frequently polls significantly better than in Ekos' numbers.

Moreover, there are plenty of plausible reasons to think that a boost in voter intention numbers might well be sustainable. Which means that it'll be well worth keeping a close eye on further polling to see if that's actually happening.

Meanwhile, a couple of the issue polling numbers also raise some interesting issues. When it comes to the country's overall direction, there's a fairly stark division between Con voters who are overwhelmingly positive, and NDP/Bloc/Green voters who are predominantly negative. But that leaves the Libs whose voters are remarkably evenly divided on the right direction/wrong direction split - which would seem to suggest that the Libs have a long way to go in convincing even their supporters of any broad need for change.

Which isn't to say that the Libs haven't been effective in at least one of their recent messaging strategies. Based merely on ideological leanings, one might expect NDP supporters to be more concerned about the Cons' F-35 purchase than Liberal ones - and indeed a few more Libs strongly support the purchase than is the case for any other opposition party. But their "prisons and planes" message has managed to push over 40% of the Libs' supporters into strongly opposing the purchase, with roughly a 65/35 split against the purchase in total.

That's particularly noteworthy in contrast to the NDP, which has kept more of its focus on other issues while the Libs have incorporated the F-35 purchase into their core messaging. As a result, the NDP has more positive impressions of the purchase among its supporters than any party except the Cons, with a nearly even division in pro/con (albeit with stronger opinions on the side of opposing the purchase). Which would seem to suggest that the choice of issues put forward by Canada's political parties can have some significant impact in driving their supporters' views on those subjects - even if it hasn't led to much more than five years of impasse in overall voting preferences.