On trigger points

On the subject of not overreacting to a single poll result, Jane Taber characteristically does just that. But while we shouldn't buy for a second the concept that an election is right around the corner, she does raise one issue which will likely define the circumstances of the next trip to the polls:

New federal seat projections suggest it’s becoming increasingly difficult for Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals and Jack Layton’s NDP to resist a vote of no-confidence and a trip to the polls.

The projections, based on a new EKOS Research poll released Thursday, show the two opposition parties are “tantalizingly close” to being able to combine forces and form a majority in the House of Commons were an election held today.

Of course, the Libs' own messaging has generally been to the effect that they're not making plans that involve working with anybody else. And if that's the standard they apply, then the fact that they themselves haven't picked up any great degree of support would suggest that we're a long ways away from an election - and that Stephen Harper will likely get to choose the terms when it happens.

But if the Libs actually consider the possibility of joining forces with the NDP to form a government as a positive outcome worth speeding up the election timetable, then a few more polls like this may well give them reason to start agitating for a vote. Which means that if the polls stay where they are, we'll be able to tell once again exactly where the Libs' priorities lie as between improving their own standing alone, or actually replacing the Harper Cons.