The Regina Coronation Park nomination race comes to a close tomorrow, and at this point the best assessment possible is that nearly anything could happen. With five candidates in the mix and at least four having obvious paths to victory, tomorrow's meeting promises to be a long but fascinating one.
From the start of the race, Jaime Garcia got the jump on his competitors in finding innovative ways of getting his name and face known. And while he's taken a few unusual steps late in the campaign (particularly a focus on fund-raising at a point when most campaigns would seemingly be focused on spending rather than attracting money), his effective image development, billboards around the riding and strong contingent at the all-candidates' debate still figure to give him an advantage in getting himself known - which is a particularly important consideration on later ballots. And while Garcia got flustered a few times in the debate, he hasn't done much to rule himself out as a second choice for anybody, making him the favourite going into the nomination meeting.
Before discussing Tamara Harder, I'll acknowledge my bias once again: she's a longtime friend, and I've been glad to be involved in her campaign. Even taking that bias into account, though, I'm not sure how anybody could have come away from the all-candidates' debate thinking that any candidate other than Harder would make for the strongest, most knowledgeable voice at a caucus or cabinet table - which on paper should combine with an effective campaign plan to make her a serious contender. Unfortunately, though, it's not clear how much her message has actually managed to resonate in the riding. And that means that in addition to appealing to female voters (and others looking to reach the party's 50% target), she may need to use her speech Saturday to sway enough undecideds into her camp to keep her on the ballot.
Fred Kress' strength in the campaign has always been his connections to Kim Trew and the Regina Coronation Park NDP machine, and that advantage along with a fairly strong debate showing make him another candidate with a chance to eke out a later-ballot victory. But Kress hasn't kept up much of a public presence during the course of the campaign, and he may have to rely on other candidates' supporters not showing up to give him a chance to stay in contention.
Former Green deputy leader Tory McGregor presents as a strong candidate on paper, and has worked hard to get himself known in NDP circles over the course of the nomination race. But I'm not sure his focus on the Legislative Assembly has translated into as much support as he'd have hoped within Regina Coronation Park itself, either in terms of new members or swaying existing ones. And that leaves him as the longshot candidate for tomorrow.
Finally, Roger Bucsis was a late entrant into the nomination race, hasn't put together even a minimal public presence, and was somewhat of a disappointment in the candidates' debate (with regular non-answers even on questions going to the core of NDP policies and principles). But he's apparently managed to sell a flurry of memberships in the campaign's later stages - and while I'm not sure where he'd get later-ballot support, it's not out of the question that he could sweep to a quick win if all of his supporters are motivated to turn up.
So where does that leave Regina Coronation Park members deciding who to vote for?
Endorsement
Based on the above, my endorsement shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. While each of the other candidates brings some pluses to the table, Tamara Harder stands out in combining strong progressive principles, an impeccable command of policy and the ability to communicate with all kinds of audiences - giving her by far the best chance to serve as a leader within the NDP, rather than looking primarily to reflect the party's message within the riding. So I'm glad to endorse Tamara Harder as the best choice for Regina Coronation Park.
Prediction
But of course, tomorrow's results will be decided primarily on the number of supporters each candidate can convince to give up a sunny June afternoon - making family, friends, and community connections within the riding the likely deciding factors. So here's how I'll estimate the chance of winning for each candidate.
35% - Jaime Garcia
25% - Roger Bucsis
20% - Tamara Harder
15% - Fred Kress
5% - Tory McGregor
Again, the meeting will start at 1 PM at Thom Collegiate, with the doors opening at 12 PM. We'll find out soon whether the nomination will be as well attended as Regina South's last night, and which of the factors will ultimately win out in deciding who will represent the NDP in Regina Coronation Park.
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