On waiting strategies

I've noted before that it seems that the Cons would have more to gain than anybody from pushing the concept of auditing Parliamentary expenses if they didn't think the results would be disastrous for their own MPs. But on further reflection it's worth noting neither they nor any other party would figure to get a lot of mileage out of such a message - if only because it's highly unlikely that any move by a national party as a whole to demand such audits will meet with any particular resistance.

After all, the cost of being seen rejecting transparency when it's being demanded by one's main opponents will be far higher than the cost of accepting non-disclosure as a mutually agreed status quo. Which means that any advantage associated with taking the first step will be a limited one - and will create some additional risk of being labeled a hypocrite if the first party to move ends up taking the worst of any coverage once the results of an audit are released.

So if there was any reasonable expectation the issue would die off, I'm not sure any of the federal parties would be upset to keep up the current system. But with plenty of voices coming together to keep MP spending in the headlines, it now seems like only a matter of time before at least one of the national parties decides to take that first step toward calling for a full audit.

To date, only a couple of individual MPs in Michelle Simson and Peter Julian have done so. But as long as the issue stays in the front pages with public opinion squarely on the side of audits, there can't be much doubt that one of the leaders will eventually decide that it's worth getting in front of the parade - and again, the others will have little choice but to follow when that happens.

Which means that the main decision for each of Jack Layton, Michael Ignatieff and Stephen Harper is whether to try to claim any boost that comes from being seen to move first, or to wait for somebody else to momentarily own the issue. And considering all the effort that the party leaders put into achieving even the smallest of gains, I'll be shocked if it takes long for one of them to take the opportunity to be the first leader to speak up for full auditing of MPs.