Spin spin sugar

A couple of headline-grabbing comments seem to be dominating the discussion coming out of Monday's discussion of the Wall government's main estimates. But it's worth looking past the most sensational statements to examine what we can tell about Dwain Lingenfelter and Brad Wall based on their apparent showdown.

So let's start with a passage that exemplifies the Wall government's addiction to spin over substance:

Mr. Lingenfelter:...My question to the Premier is: on oil production, since the Premier came to office, can he indicate, based on barrels per oil a day, what has happened to the production level of oil in the province of Saskatchewan, '07 to '09? Can you give us the average daily production of crude oil?
...
Hon. Mr. Wall:...Mr. Chairman, notwithstanding the change in price, notwithstanding the change in price, in terms of barrels production we have: 2,007, 156.2 million barrels up to 161.0 million barrels in our first year in government of 2008. Down again, down again to 151 million barrels but, Mr. Chairman, not significantly down. When you consider the differential in price, you'd see that the barrels production even in '09, and these are still estimates, is only down 5 million barrels from 2007. But we went up in our first year to 161. The production of oil in Saskatchewan went up to 161 million barrels, Mr. Chairman.

Now, there are other more glaring examples of Wall trying to ignore economic indicators such as the province's sharp declines in the number of oil and gas wells drilled. And I have no doubt that we'll see those emphasized as part of the NDP's message about the Sask Party's lack of any particular competence in encouraging the sustainable development of Saskatchewan's natural resources. But the above example strikes me as ideal because of Wall's diametrically different responses to a perfectly symmetric set of changes in the span of a single paragraph.

As far as Wall is concerned, a one-year increase in production of 5 million barrels from 2007 to 2008 is a change worth highlighting and evidence of his government's claimed impact on production. Yet at the same time, a one-year decrease of 10 million barrels from 2008 to 2009 - taking production below 2007 levels by exactly the same 5 million number - is supposed to mean that production is "not significantly down", and is brushed off as beyond anybody's control. Which results in the sad spectacle of Wall trying to keep shouting "up! up! up!" even as production has demonstrably declined on his watch.

Which should send a rather compelling signal that the Wall government's message about the province's economy is based on simultaneously inflating gains and minimizing losses even when the two can be readily compared, rather than making any reasonable effort to treat like things alike. And for Saskatchewan citizens who recognize that a sound economy needs to be based on realistic assumptions rather than obviously-misleading boosterism, that should be a far more important takeaway from the discussion of the province's estimates than any personal insults between the leaders.