Strategic leadership

The events of the past week have led to another round of speculation about Stephane Dion being asked to step down as the Libs' leader, with the presumptive result that a separate interim leader would be put at the head of the impending coalition. But I'll suggest that there might be another solution which would work better for all involved in the coalition.

To start off with, I don't think there can be much doubt that the Cons will be dispensing as much vitriol as they can toward what they perceive to be the coalition's weak points. And from all indications, Dion's leadership is at or near the top of the list.

Now, that's done plenty to feed into some public skepticism about the coalition to date. But it also gives the coalition a significant opportunity to wrong-foot the Cons going into the next session of Parliament.

What if, rather than replacing Dion now, the Libs were to arrange a caucus show of support for Dion's continued leadership to drive home the point that the coalition is still in the works - with the agreed intention that somebody else would step forward to lead the coalition only as Parliament is set to resume?

From what I can tell, a show of support for Dion and the coalition would force the Cons to keep pouring money and effort into their assault on the idea - again focusing on the perceived weak spot in the form of Dion. But with the prospect of Dion as PM pulled away at the last second even as the coalition moves forward, the Cons would get little to no return on their investment. Which would seem to be about the best outcome the coalition can hope for, particularly since its efforts could be focused on what would actually be the battleground areas of public opinion once Parliament reconvenes.

In contrast, by pushing Dion to step down immediately, the Libs would only tip their hand early enough to let the Cons develop the narrative they want to see around a new leader. Which means that the Libs - and the coalition - would almost certainly end up right back where the Libs were a couple of months after Dion first took over the leadership: fighting a losing battle against a Con air war aimed at defining a leader who can't afford to fight back.

Mind you, there is one other possibility which has been hinted at before but not considered in the context of this week's developments. If Dion is indeed going to step down - whether immediately, or shortly before the return to Parliament - it might make more sense for everybody involved if Jack Layton were to be named the coalition's leader and interim PM-in-waiting pending the results of the Libs' leadership race.

After all, unlike any new face the Libs could bring into the picture, Layton has a strong public image built up over the course of multiple election campaigns which won't be easily torn down over the course of a short-term ad blitz. Which means that he offers the best chance of turning leadership into a relative strength for the coalition.

Moreover, putting interim responsibility in Layton's hands would avoid the danger of alienating those Libs who might otherwise be bypassed in favour of somebody else. At least two candidates and their supporters could consider themselves rightfully aggrieved whether the Libs installed an interim leader from the pool of Goodale/McCallum/Brison, or a permanent leader out of Ignatieff/Rae/Leblanc - and with Harper looking to poach anybody he can to try to buy a majority, the Libs are probably best served keeping their leadership race going to ensure that everybody has a reason to stay within the tent.

That said, I wouldn't want to see the NDP making any overly strong push for Layton to take the reins. Indeed, having already sent the message that the Liberals' senior place in the coalition will enable them to choose who's best positioned to lead, the NDP should stick firmly to that position in order to avoid putting any unnecessary stress on the coalition.

But as a corollary, I'd think Layton should be more than open to serving as the interim face of the coalition if the Libs ask him to take on that role. And for anybody looking out for the greatest likelihood of making the coalition work, Layton as interim coalition leader would seem to present the strongest possible chance of getting the job done.

(Edit: fixed typo.)