Saturday, January 13, 2007

A strategic tradeoff

A couple of blogs have already weighed in on Pierre Ducasse's decision to seek the NDP nomination in Hull-Aylmer rather than Manicouagan. While the move certainly seems to put the NDP's Quebec lieutenant on a stronger footing going into the next federal election, it's worth noting that the incumbent NDP candidate who managed to run a strong fourth in the riding was no slouch himself. Which means that the NDP's chances of taking Hull-Aylmer may not increase by much with Ducasse - and that the likely loss of votes in Manicouagan could easily outweigh any gains in Hull-Aylmer.

Mind you, it's an understandable tradeoff for a party which won a decent number of votes in Quebec without taking any seats last time out. But the downside is worth keeping in mind as well - and this seems like the kind of move that will be ripe for second-guessing if Ducasse can't buck the odds to win Hull-Aylmer.

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