On calculations

There's been lots of talk today about Jean Lapierre's resignation from his Outremont seat, with most of the discussion focusing on either the slight addition to the Cons' stability, or the prospect of Justin Trudeau as a successor. But I have to wonder whether the ramifications are far greater - as it seems entirely possible that the strategic value of the riding might make the Cons significantly more likely to want a spring election than they would otherwise.

Based on Outremont's past results, the riding looks to be a highly unpredictable one in a general election (even if it's primarily been held by the Libs). The Bloc, NDP and Cons were all within striking distance of Lapierre in 2006, and the seat looks to have at least been in play every election since 1980. Which makes Outremont a fairly plausible pickup opportunity for the Cons (as well as the NDP and the Bloc) in a general election.

But if the seat becomes the focus of a by-election, the equation changes dramatically. Then, the stronger Quebec party structures of the Libs and the Bloc would be turned toward the riding in full. This would likely lead to much more of a two-party race, and do nothing but harm the Cons' claim to be competitive in Quebec. And just in case that wasn't a bad enough outcome for the Cons, if Justin Trudeau does win a by-election for the Libs, then he'd be able to start building his own reputation in the riding and in Ottawa before the next federal election - making Outremont a more difficult battlefield, and potentially giving the Libs an extremely prominent face to sway other Quebec races as well.

Now, I'm sure Harper does place a very high value on staying in power, and it's far from clear that he'll want to give it up lightly. But with an Outremont by-election having so much downside, PMS may well conclude that he's best off taking his chances in a general election sooner rather than dealing with the fallout from a by-election later.

Update: Macleans points out yet another downside to a separate by-election, as it would once again highlight Michael Fortier's reluctance to face any voters.