On beachheads

While CanWest naturally focuses on the Cons gains, the latest Ipsos-Reid numbers suggest that both coasts may hold fertile electoral ground for the NDP.

On the East Coast, Liberal support lost in Atlantic Canada has split roughly evenly between the Cons and the NDP...which means not only that plenty of seats are in play, but that the NDP appears to have the best chance of taking seats away from Harper:

The most dramatic gains for the Tories -- at the expense of the Liberals -- came in Atlantic Canada where they surged nine points to 42% while the Liberals lost their hold on the region plunging 16 points to 26%, since a Jan. 2-5 survey. The NDP also gained seven points at the expense of the Liberals, jumping to 30%, the party's highest showing in any region of the country.

In B.C., meanwhile, the Greens did surprisingly well in the poll, cutting down Lib and Con numbers and bringing the NDP on nearly equal terms:

In British Columbia, a tight three-way race was shaping up between the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP -- all because of substantial gains made by the Green party.

The Conservatives stood at 30%, with Liberals trailing at 28, and the NDP at 25. The Green party surged nine points to 16% -- largely at the expense of the Liberals and Conservatives, each of which dropped five points.

Now, the regional numbers are apparently based on small samples (even the national poll only included 1000 voters). But it's awfully hard to explain away the Libs' drop from virtually sweeping the Atlantic region with provincial numbers between 37% and 53% in 2004, to ranking in third place now. And likewise, the Greens' gains in B.C. look very likely to make more races competitive than might be assumed - even if those actual gains are less strong than those measured in the poll.

Which means that in both regions, there's every indication that the NDP can hold its own with the other two parties...and that swaying just a few additional voters could push the NDP into more seats in B.C. and Atlantic Canada than would ever have been expected.

(Edit: typo.)