Monday, January 09, 2006

Debate semi-live blog

And we're done. Instant post-mortem:

Martin looked like he was trying to eliminate any prospect of getting back in the race. Too quick at times, over time at others, angry at Duceppe for awhile as well, and had far more false passion than policy.

Harper won to the extent that he screwed up less than Martin, but he didn't accomplish much either. Anybody who was skeptical going in is still going to have plenty of questions, particularly about Harper's insistence that voters should ignore his record aside from the immediate Con platform.

Bias aside, Layton did well except for a couple of the late questions - plenty of effective attacks, but he also kept the most gravitas while delivering them, yet managed to come off as the most positive of the bunch. And the appeal to bring Quebec into the Constitution, combined with Option Canada weapon wielded against the Libs and Cons, may give the Dippers hope in La Belle Province.

Duceppe was Duceppe, with plenty of well-targeted attacks on the Libs and Cons as well as at least some attempt to appear constructive. But has his English regressed since the 2004 debates? A lot of great lines got lost to stumbling delivery.

Will it change anything? We know debates aren't supposed to, but I think we'll see a Layton boost and Martin drop out of this if Martin's uncomfortability throughout the debate gets the media play that such matters seem to get.

8:58 - Duceppe again points out Conservative involvement in Option Canada. Could this swing federalist support to the Dippers if it takes hold?

8:57 - Very general closing from Layton, no knockout punches.

8:56 - Harper says trust what he's said this campaign, not everything else he's ever said. The order could work to Layton's advantage if he delivers a rebuttal.

8:55 - Martin's closing: "have faith". And it'll have to be very blind faith for anybody to believe Lib promises by this point.

8:54 - In response to Duceppe, Layton sets out the dividing line between federal scandals and Liberal ones.

8:53 - Good line from Duceppe to justify negativity: "the greatest danger is not 'talking about corruption', the greatest danger is 'not talking about corruption'".

8:51 - Martin goes negative in response to the question about too much negativity.

8:49 - Layton wants a positive campaign and a positive Parliament. And then talks about positive measures. That'll work, though again this sounded like a closing statement rather than a response to a question.

8:48 - Layton gets asked which of Martin or Harper he'd prefer to deal with. That's one he had to duck, but he didn't have a strong answer ready.

8:46 - Now the question goes to Layton directly. And he still won't say "prime minister".

8:45 - Harper claims there's a limited amount a party can do in opposition. Will he pretend he couldn't have influenced the budget if he'd wanted to?

8:43 - Layton back to "getting results for people". Not bad, but I'd love to have seen Harper challenged on his unwillingness to state his actual preference.

8:40 - Question to Harper on spooking voters, and on whether he'd rather have a majority than a minority. Harper says it's the peoples' choice, and he won't take sides. Let's see Layton say he'd prefer to have a majority government than any other outcome, and it's a sign of Harper's disconnect with Canadians that he doesn't dare to say the same.

8:38 - Layton slams the Duceppe/Martin bickering, then takes out Harper on child care policy. I wonder if he could have slammed Jim Harris if he'd had another 5 seconds in the rebuttal.

8:37 - Harper claims to be effective on the environment among other issues. We're through the looking glass here.

8:34 - Layton calmly calls the Libs a great recruiter for the Bloc. Nice contrast to Martin's frantic pace.

8:33 - To Martin: "is Canada too fragile to survive a change in government?" This one actually led naturally to Harper-bashing, and PMPM takes the chance, pointing out the Bloc's helplessness against Con policies.

8:30 - Interesting for Layton to talk about getting Quebec to sign the constitution - particularly when Harper's intention to deal "particularly with Charest" left that part out.

8:28 - Layton talks about establishing winning conditions for federalism in Quebec. Good message.

8:27 - "In particular Premier Charest"? Harper's obviously looking strongly for Quebec votes...but isn't Charest's popularity even lower than the federal Libs'?

8:27 - More passion from Martin on national unity, but typically completely devoid of content.

8:25 - The obvious question of resolving issues through one vote to Duceppe. Interesting idea of collective vs. individual rights, but is there any principled basis for differentiating between the two?

8:22 - Another ready-made question for Layton, as he deals with both his municipal experience and the added municipal money in the NDP budget.

8:19 - Tax breaks vs. infrastructure to Harper. Has the Con infrastructure fund proposal been mentioned so far in the campaign? Did it get buried in the policy-a-day pace?

8:18 - Harper goes into policy wonk mode on equalization, Layton goes folksy.

8:14 - Equalization to Duceppe. He sounds willing to look at equalization even if it hurts Quebec, then backs up and points out his approval for a formula which adds to Quebec.

8:12 - Question about common ground between the NDP and the Cons, again Layton won't be pinned down.

8:09 - Martin brings up education policy. Which the NDP can certainly support, but plays into Layton's hands about what's been accomplished already.

8:08 - Harper doesn't believe he has a divine right to rule. Glad that's cleared up. But what about an entitlement?

(And tax cuts would save the auto sector? Does Harper honestly believe that?)

8:06 - A question about the balance of power, but Layton won't be pinned down on what policies need to be in a budget. I'd like to see more about consultation, less about bashing the other parties, but it works.

8:01 - Agriculture, here's your moment. Martin says he's done fine but needs to do much more. Layton goes emotional and name-drops candidates before going to policy. Duceppe points out the Libs' effort to narrow down a motion on supply management. Harper offers half the money the NDP did, and otherwise echoes Martin's answer about continuing the status quo except for criticizing the Wheat Board monopoly.

8:00 - Layton throws down the gauntlet: would Harper cut services in order to cut taxes? That's certainly not the Cons' campaign message, but the seed is worth planting.

7:58 - If Layton's numbers about the Con tax moves are right, Harper has some serious egg on his face.

7:57 - Harper criticizes the Libs for favouring upper-class Canadians.

7:56 - Martin goes over time for the second time in the debate. Sounds passionate trying to defend his record, but there isn't much to defend.

7:53 - It almost seems too convenient that Layton gets to respond to Martin on the poverty question. And he's not disappointing.

7:51 - A direct question on poverty, aimed at Martin's failures. And he's got nothing.

7:50 - And now Martin gets to deal with the gap between anti-American electioneering and integration as a policy. (Too bad he doesn't actually get to answer, that would have been an interesting one.)

7:49 - Layton on dealing with poverty as a value. Nice, though it would have been nice to see that in the first response.

7:47 - Now that the question is about the notwithstanding clause, Martin starts bashing Harper rather than answering. Call it the culture of entitlement to debate whatever he feels like.

7:44 - Question to Layton on the notwithstanding clause...and he hints at the notwithstanding clause to defend public health care. Very interesting.

7:42 - And Layton misses it, though the answer is long on policy.

7:41 - Harper's apparently wilfully blind about what provincial governments are doing on health, claiming none of them are looking at private health care. Which gives Layton a huge opening to talk about Klein, Charest, Campbell, et al.

7:40 - Duceppe takes the credit card/health card line. Does Layton have another line ready in its place?

7:39 - Has there been a question directed at Layton yet? (Since the first one at least...)

7:36 - Harper doesn't think tougher laws will cost more to enforce? Sounds like the Dubya regulatory approach (high sentences, no enforcement) applied to crime...

7:34 - Another nice Layton answer, this time on crime...though the tough question to Harper seems to be long forgotten now.

7:31 - Harper gets asked whether his laws would have prevented any of the high-profile crimes over the last year...but wriggles out nicely by actually having an answer.

7:30 - Layton with a tour de force response on PR, appealing to as many left-out groups as he could name in the time while also pointing out Lib broken promises.

7:29 - Harper appeals for a high general turnout? Seriously?

7:28 - Once again Martin brings Layton back in - this time long after his statement on a need for more women in Parliament.

7:26 - Excellent. A PR question - with the Bloc having to answer for its own distorted representation.

7:23 - Layton very strong on the messages sent by Liberal votes - frankly this answer would have been better as the opening statement than a response within the debate.

7:21 - And there's the counter, as Harper wins the role of defending the current Charter. Did the Libs not see that one coming?

7:18 - Martin goes far off the rails, proposing an impossible policy (removal of the notwithstanding clause for the federal government!?!) without even pretending to respond to the question.

7:16 - Duceppe hammers Harper on a lack of internal accountability. Here comes the NDP's chance to go positive about its own record in comparison...

7:15 - Nice question about Reform's failure to follow through on its commitments - even Harper couldn't deny the truth in it.

7:13 - Layton turns the "personal attacks" question into a positive policy answer. Nice.

7:12 - Martin ignores a moderator's question to respond to Layton. So much for the "ignore the NDP" strategy...

7:09 - Option Canada splashback on the Cons? An interesting idea, but I don't see how it helps the Libs' standing in Quebec or elsewhere.

7:08 - Martin looks utterly defeated looking on at Harper's response.

7:06 - Jack nicely points out the lack of Liberal response on income trusts. Does Martin dare call it a partisan issue now?

7:03 - Duceppe actually mentions Harper in the same sentence as Martin. If that doesn't help the Cons in Quebec, I don't know what would.

7:02 - No surprise that Martin goes right to the lower-income tax cut. Did the Cons really need that extra amount of money so badly as to open themselves up to obvious attacks?

No attempt to cover the debate word by word here, but I'll stop in with observations as warranted.

(Edits: Wording and typos thanks to live-blogging.)

(Final note: This post brought to you in large part by the loving indulgence of my fiancée, who sacrificed myself, the TV and the computer for the evening to allow for live-blogging. I'm still working on getting her interested enough in political minutiae to want to blog along.)

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