Poll vaulting

Apparently Robert's estimate was on the low side, as yet another poll came out today (this time from Decima) with some very interesting results:

Here's how the latest Decima numbers break down.

First, the horse race: Liberals 33 per cent, Conservatives 26, NDP 22, and Bloc Quebecois 13...

Decima also asked respondents how election timing would influence their voting behaviour.

Under a January-February election scenario, Liberal support actually rose a point to 34 per cent, the Conservatives remained static at 26 and the New Democrats fell two points to 20 per cent.

Some 58 per cent overall said they'd prefer an election in late March or early April - Prime Minister Paul Martin's preferred timetable. Just 28 per cent said they wanted a January or February date.

The biggest news is yet another jump in general approval for the NDP. But there are also some bizarre countervailing forces at work: based on the results of this poll, 2 per cent of all voters support the NDP generally, but won't back the party if gets its request for a February election.

It's not surprising that people want to avoid an election generally, and I presume that's the main reason for the difference in numbers between the NDP and its election policy. But it's anybody's guess as to whether Canadians will ultimately let the election timing affect their votes once the campaign gets underway. And if so, then the current politicking may well be a decisive factor as voters choose who to blame for an election.