I won't spend a lot of time discussing the developments surrounding Eric Tillman this past week, as I'd think there was a reasonable case to either keep Tillman or ask him to resign as eventually happened. But particularly now that Tillman is out of the picture, the 'Riders have to be looking at which of their 2009 members they can build around in the longer term as a new GM takes charge of player recruitment, and which ones they need to be ready to replace at any time.
So let's take a look at one of the major questions facing the 'Riders next year and beyond: which of the 2009 'Riders are most likely to stick in the NFL over the next few seasons rather than forming part of Saskatchewan's long-term plans? (Needless to say, the question is particularly timely in the wake of the Indianapolis Colts' signing of John Chick, who'd be #1 on this list.)
1. Louie Sakoda - P/K
Based on his college production as a placekicker, it's surprising he was ever available for the 'Riders to sign last year as an emergency replacement for punter Jamie Boreham. And after taking a bit of time to adjust to the CFL, he performed extremely well on punts and kickoffs by the end of 2009. So it'll be a surprise if Sakoda doesn't manage to work his way into the NFL in the longer term - meaning that the 'Riders shouldn't expect him to be around for long.
2. Weston Dressler - WR
Dressler may be well below some of the players lower on this list in his likelihood of actually winning a starting job in the NFL: surprisingly few teams seem to have learned from Wes Welker's example that an undersized receiver with speed can be a hugely valuable weapon, and the team which actually has Welker in its lineup already has an understudy ready. But I'd have to like Dressler's chance of making good on any opportunity he gets.
3. Joel Bell - OT
Bell may not have the CFL reputation of the likes of Dressler or Fantuz. But he has great size and athleticism for an offensive lineman, and was able to play effectively in a starting role within mere weeks of first being exposed to the CFL game. And at age 24, he has many years ahead of him to potentially make a similar impression south of the border.
4. Andy Fantuz - WR
The working theory at the moment seems to be that Fantuz won't make it in the NFL due to his lack of speed. But I have to wonder whether he'll effectively get a shot at two positions: even if his speed won't play at receiver (which itself can't be taken as a given), at a sturdy 6'4" he's wouldn't figure to be more than a season in the weight room away from being able to fit in at tight end.
5. Stevie Baggs - DE
Baggs' strengths in the CFL may not translate entirely into the NFL, as he's almost certainly too small to last as a defensive lineman south of the border and may not slide in as a pass-rushing linebacker as easily as Cameron Wake did this year. But he's also been a highly effective special-teamer for the 'Riders, and would seem to have a strong chance of holding his own in that role.
6. Keith Shologan - DL
Shologan stuck long enough with the San Diego Chargers in 2008 to miss the first half of the CFL season, and has since developed his game extremely quickly with the 'Riders as an effective starter following Scott Schultz' retirement. But note one possible hitch for Shologan, as the 'Riders' preference for quickness on the defensive line may keep him from bulking up to the size which an NFL team might prefer in a tackle.
7. Luca Congi - K
On demonstrated talent alone, Congi would be at least two places higher on this list. But Congi signed a two-year extension in October without any suggestion that he sought a Fantuz-style clause allowing him to test the NFL waters - meaning that it's questionable whether he's even looking to make the jump, and that it'll be some time before he gets the chance. As a result, he ranks lowest on the list of anybody who has a relatively clear path to the NFL with his current skill set.
8. Adam Nicolson - WR
The catch for Nicolson is that he obviously won't get much of an NFL shot before he proves himself in the CFL first - and as long as he's behind Fantuz, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf among non-import receivers, there aren't going to be many passes thrown his way to allow that to happen. But his size and athleticism give him a better chance than Bagg or Getzlaf of eventually earning an NFL job, particularly if he gets to take over Fantuz' role.
9. Renauld Williams - LB
Williams has already been an NFL journeyman for several years, and thus can't be seen as somebody who's just needed an opportunity to show his stuff. But there would figure to be some chance that his experience as a starting (and starring CFL) linebacker will be seen as outweighing the fact that he's past the age where teams might see room for him to improve athletically.
10. Joe Sykes - DL
By this point in the list, one could fit in almost anybody from a couple of categories: either players young enough to have room for growth and athletic enough to fit an NFL position (Donovan Alexander, Hugh Charles, Jerrell Freeman, Graham Harrell, Carlos Armour, Michael Stadnyk), or reasonably young players with NFL experience who might be able to use their CFL game film as part of their case for a more prominent role (Dalton Bell, Lance Frazier, Gerran Walker, Chris McKenzie, Bobby Harris). But let's go with Sykes based on the possibility that the departure of Chick (and potentially Baggs as well) will allow him to showcase his skills in the CFL in 2010 and make the jump.
As for the possibly surprising omissions from this list:
- Having turned himself into an upper-tier CFL quarterback by age 27, Darien Durant would seem to have less far to go than some of the players above. But even the likes of Ricky Ray, Henry Burris and Casey Printers have found themselves trapped no higher up than third on an NFL depth chart, and Durant's size figures to further reduce his chances of ever winning playing time south of the border.
- As mentioned above, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf have both been extremely productive as young receivers. But I'd think a CFL receiver prospect would have to at least rank as above-average in either size or speed by an NFL standard in order to get much of a chance, and neither Bagg nor Getzlaf fits the bill. Which hopefully means that the 'Riders will be able to build their offence around the combination of Durant, Bagg and Getzlaf for a long time to come no matter what else happens around them.
Showing posts with label stevie baggs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stevie baggs. Show all posts
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Sunday, December 06, 2009
Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging
It took only a few days after the end of the Grey Cup for talk and action surrounding the Saskatchewan Roughriders to turn toward the team's plan for 2010. So let's take a look at the 'Riders' free agents as to who should be back, and who we can expect to see playing (or not playing) elsewhere.
I'll note that the outset that the classifications below aren't based solely on the quality of the players involved. Instead, the CFL's strict salary cap and the ready availability of import replacement players at many positions mean that the question of whether a player should be brought back is based on age/potential, import/non-import status and presumed salary expectations as well as current ability.
Must-Signs
RB Stu Foord - Young. Talented. Popular. Local. And not well-enough established to demand starter money - though the 'Riders might want to consider paying him something close to it in order to secure a long-term bargain from a player who seems ready to step into at least a co-starring role at a skill position.
DE Stevie Baggs - He'll presumably want star money after a season where he could easily have been the league's Defensive Player of the Year. But he's both highly talented on his own and a perfect fit for Gary Etcheverry's defence, so I'd expect the 'Riders to be willing to find room in the budget.
CB Omarr Morgan - Based on how rejuvenated he looked in 2009, Morgan should be able to lock down a corner for the 'Riders for several more seasons as long as the price is right - and since he took a hometown discount to return in 2008, that shouldn't be a problem.
Worth Bringing Back
S James Patrick - Experienced and skilled enough to be a leader in the 'Riders' secondary, but young enough to stick around for many years to come.
FB Chris Szarka - He'd actually have been a prime candidate to go elsewhere if not for his successful run for City Council. But it's hard to see him leaving Regina now, and that should ensure that his price stays low enough for the 'Riders to bring him back.
RB Wes Cates - The flip side of Foord being a must-sign is that the 'Riders have a tough call to make with Cates. As long as he doesn't mind being a 1A back (and paid accordingly) rather than a feature runner, he'd be more than worth re-signing for his blocking and pass-catching ability. But the 'Riders' can't afford another season getting less than 5 yards per rush out of their feature tailback, and they may need to let Cates walk if he still expects to play that role.
QB Steven Jyles - A reasonably talented and experienced #2 if Saskatchewan can't find anyone better in the offseason. But with the Lions figuring to cut at least one former starter loose (Jarious Jackson? Buck Pierce?) and the Argos having to decide whether they want to pay Kerry Joseph MOP money to back up Cody Pickett, I'd take some time to see who else might be available before locking in Jyles.
DB Eddie Davis - When Davis was injured in 2007, the 'Riders' defence went into a funk until he returned. When he was injured in 2009, the 'Riders barely missed a beat with Chris McKenzie taking Davis' place. Which isn't to say that Davis wasn't still effective, but it may be time to transition a younger and cheaper starter into the defensive backfield.
WR Gerran Walker - Walker proved to be an effective #4 receiver in the latter half of the season. But I wouldn't be surprised if he's looking to be more of a feature receiver than he'll ever be in Saskatchewan - and the 'Riders shouldn't be heartbroken to let their next set of receiver recruits battle Johnny Quinn for Walker's spot in the lineup.
Probably Looking Elsewhere
LB Tad Kornegay - An effective utility defender who found his way onto the West All-Star team thanks to games missed by the likes of Maurice Lloyd, Rey Williams and Jojuan Armour, making for what figures to be a substantial gap between Kornegay's value on the field and his contract expectations in what's likely to be his only chance to get paid like a star. For a reasonable cost the 'Riders should be happy to have him back, but I'd expect him to get at least one big contract offer - and the 'Riders can get far better value finding somebody else to fill the spot rather than matching the price.
G Marc Parenteau - An effective starter last season and reserve before that. But with Belton Johnson, Bobby Harris and (most importantly) Wayne Smith returning from injuries and Joel Bell firmly entrenched at the right tackle spot, Parenteau's starting job figures to disappear in 2010. And with the re-signed Chris Best added back into a deep pool of non-import reserves, the 'Riders won't have much need to pay Parenteau a premium to stay as a backup.
RB Hugh Charles - Charles has shown glimmers of ability the past two seasons, and is worth bringing back to camp if he doesn't have greater opportunities elsewhere. But he's a clear #3 on the 'Riders' depth chart behind Cates and Foord, and based on the success of three rookie RBs in 2009 there doesn't seem to be any lack of imports ready to perform as feature runners in the CFL.
LS Jocelyn Frenette - For two seasons now, the 'Riders have kept both Frenette and Kevin Scott on their roster. And while Frenette has done well to improve his effectiveness on the 'Riders' cover teams, it's time to cut down on the number of roster spots used for long snappers.
(Edit: fixed typo.)
I'll note that the outset that the classifications below aren't based solely on the quality of the players involved. Instead, the CFL's strict salary cap and the ready availability of import replacement players at many positions mean that the question of whether a player should be brought back is based on age/potential, import/non-import status and presumed salary expectations as well as current ability.
Must-Signs
RB Stu Foord - Young. Talented. Popular. Local. And not well-enough established to demand starter money - though the 'Riders might want to consider paying him something close to it in order to secure a long-term bargain from a player who seems ready to step into at least a co-starring role at a skill position.
DE Stevie Baggs - He'll presumably want star money after a season where he could easily have been the league's Defensive Player of the Year. But he's both highly talented on his own and a perfect fit for Gary Etcheverry's defence, so I'd expect the 'Riders to be willing to find room in the budget.
CB Omarr Morgan - Based on how rejuvenated he looked in 2009, Morgan should be able to lock down a corner for the 'Riders for several more seasons as long as the price is right - and since he took a hometown discount to return in 2008, that shouldn't be a problem.
Worth Bringing Back
S James Patrick - Experienced and skilled enough to be a leader in the 'Riders' secondary, but young enough to stick around for many years to come.
FB Chris Szarka - He'd actually have been a prime candidate to go elsewhere if not for his successful run for City Council. But it's hard to see him leaving Regina now, and that should ensure that his price stays low enough for the 'Riders to bring him back.
RB Wes Cates - The flip side of Foord being a must-sign is that the 'Riders have a tough call to make with Cates. As long as he doesn't mind being a 1A back (and paid accordingly) rather than a feature runner, he'd be more than worth re-signing for his blocking and pass-catching ability. But the 'Riders' can't afford another season getting less than 5 yards per rush out of their feature tailback, and they may need to let Cates walk if he still expects to play that role.
QB Steven Jyles - A reasonably talented and experienced #2 if Saskatchewan can't find anyone better in the offseason. But with the Lions figuring to cut at least one former starter loose (Jarious Jackson? Buck Pierce?) and the Argos having to decide whether they want to pay Kerry Joseph MOP money to back up Cody Pickett, I'd take some time to see who else might be available before locking in Jyles.
DB Eddie Davis - When Davis was injured in 2007, the 'Riders' defence went into a funk until he returned. When he was injured in 2009, the 'Riders barely missed a beat with Chris McKenzie taking Davis' place. Which isn't to say that Davis wasn't still effective, but it may be time to transition a younger and cheaper starter into the defensive backfield.
WR Gerran Walker - Walker proved to be an effective #4 receiver in the latter half of the season. But I wouldn't be surprised if he's looking to be more of a feature receiver than he'll ever be in Saskatchewan - and the 'Riders shouldn't be heartbroken to let their next set of receiver recruits battle Johnny Quinn for Walker's spot in the lineup.
Probably Looking Elsewhere
LB Tad Kornegay - An effective utility defender who found his way onto the West All-Star team thanks to games missed by the likes of Maurice Lloyd, Rey Williams and Jojuan Armour, making for what figures to be a substantial gap between Kornegay's value on the field and his contract expectations in what's likely to be his only chance to get paid like a star. For a reasonable cost the 'Riders should be happy to have him back, but I'd expect him to get at least one big contract offer - and the 'Riders can get far better value finding somebody else to fill the spot rather than matching the price.
G Marc Parenteau - An effective starter last season and reserve before that. But with Belton Johnson, Bobby Harris and (most importantly) Wayne Smith returning from injuries and Joel Bell firmly entrenched at the right tackle spot, Parenteau's starting job figures to disappear in 2010. And with the re-signed Chris Best added back into a deep pool of non-import reserves, the 'Riders won't have much need to pay Parenteau a premium to stay as a backup.
RB Hugh Charles - Charles has shown glimmers of ability the past two seasons, and is worth bringing back to camp if he doesn't have greater opportunities elsewhere. But he's a clear #3 on the 'Riders' depth chart behind Cates and Foord, and based on the success of three rookie RBs in 2009 there doesn't seem to be any lack of imports ready to perform as feature runners in the CFL.
LS Jocelyn Frenette - For two seasons now, the 'Riders have kept both Frenette and Kevin Scott on their roster. And while Frenette has done well to improve his effectiveness on the 'Riders' cover teams, it's time to cut down on the number of roster spots used for long snappers.
(Edit: fixed typo.)
Monday, November 23, 2009
Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging
Most of the discussion before and after yesterday's win over Calgary has surrounded the starting quarterbacks. And Darien Durant certainly deserves the credit he's received for his performance in the game. But let's leave no room for doubt: the most important factor in the 'Riders' win was a defensive scheme which did more to bottle up Henry Burris than any I've seen in the CFL.
Under normal circumstances, Burris is largely able to dictate the outcome one way or another. Most defences facing Burris spend the entire time on their heels, facing an impossible choice between focusing on coverage and letting him run wild, or spying the quarterback at the expense of receivers getting open deep. And even when Burris' passing isn't up to par, he normally manages to makes some plays with his legs. Which means that opponents mostly have to hope for Burris to miss open receivers and make bad decisions in order to stay in the game.
But not yesterday. Burris managed one long run on the Stamps' first drive - then by my count had a grand total of zero plays the rest of the game where he threatened the 'Riders in the open field. For the most part, that's because Saskatchewan kept him hemmed into a perpetually-collapsing pocket, with different rushers coming at different times to prevent him from waiting for a receiver to get open. And the few times the Stamps designed plays to give Burris more room to operate, Saskatchewan consistently had two waves of defenders coming for him, with the second (hello, Rey Williams!) arriving to drop Burris before he could look downfield after dodging the first (hello, Stevie Baggs!).
In the end, Burris was completely stymied on the ground and couldn't find much weakness in the 'Riders' secondary. And the 'Riders had to be ecstatic with that combination, even if it meant another fairly big game for Joffrey Reynolds.
Of course, the problem for the 'Riders' defence is that the game plan that worked so well against the Stamps will have to be discarded for the Grey Cup - as a scheme designed to frustrate a quarterback who loves to wait for plays to develop would be suicidal against Anthony Calvillo's quick trigger. But the 'Riders' defence has proven extremely versatile this season, and should be able to get back into bend-but-don't-break mode for next week's game.
Meanwhile, the 'Riders' offence played roughly in the upper end of its normal range. As usual it showed some inconsistency throughout the game, but it avoided any turnovers other than Steven Jyles' third-down fumble, and converted on most of its opportunities to score to stake the 'Riders to the lead.
The one major concern for the offence has to be a running game which was almost completely ineffective until the team was in prevent mode. But Durant can make up for that in part with his own scrambling, and one has to expect that a game against the Als will be enough of a shootout for the team's passing attack to the be the top priority anyway.
Now, the 'Riders get a chance to win the Grey Cup on fairly friendly turf - and hopefully the crowd will once again be a major factor in Saskatchewan's favour as it has been in the last two home triumphs. But even leaving that advantage aside, the 'Riders have showed throughout the season that they're one of the CFL's top teams on merit - and it'll only take one more great performance to put that title in the history books.
Under normal circumstances, Burris is largely able to dictate the outcome one way or another. Most defences facing Burris spend the entire time on their heels, facing an impossible choice between focusing on coverage and letting him run wild, or spying the quarterback at the expense of receivers getting open deep. And even when Burris' passing isn't up to par, he normally manages to makes some plays with his legs. Which means that opponents mostly have to hope for Burris to miss open receivers and make bad decisions in order to stay in the game.
But not yesterday. Burris managed one long run on the Stamps' first drive - then by my count had a grand total of zero plays the rest of the game where he threatened the 'Riders in the open field. For the most part, that's because Saskatchewan kept him hemmed into a perpetually-collapsing pocket, with different rushers coming at different times to prevent him from waiting for a receiver to get open. And the few times the Stamps designed plays to give Burris more room to operate, Saskatchewan consistently had two waves of defenders coming for him, with the second (hello, Rey Williams!) arriving to drop Burris before he could look downfield after dodging the first (hello, Stevie Baggs!).
In the end, Burris was completely stymied on the ground and couldn't find much weakness in the 'Riders' secondary. And the 'Riders had to be ecstatic with that combination, even if it meant another fairly big game for Joffrey Reynolds.
Of course, the problem for the 'Riders' defence is that the game plan that worked so well against the Stamps will have to be discarded for the Grey Cup - as a scheme designed to frustrate a quarterback who loves to wait for plays to develop would be suicidal against Anthony Calvillo's quick trigger. But the 'Riders' defence has proven extremely versatile this season, and should be able to get back into bend-but-don't-break mode for next week's game.
Meanwhile, the 'Riders' offence played roughly in the upper end of its normal range. As usual it showed some inconsistency throughout the game, but it avoided any turnovers other than Steven Jyles' third-down fumble, and converted on most of its opportunities to score to stake the 'Riders to the lead.
The one major concern for the offence has to be a running game which was almost completely ineffective until the team was in prevent mode. But Durant can make up for that in part with his own scrambling, and one has to expect that a game against the Als will be enough of a shootout for the team's passing attack to the be the top priority anyway.
Now, the 'Riders get a chance to win the Grey Cup on fairly friendly turf - and hopefully the crowd will once again be a major factor in Saskatchewan's favour as it has been in the last two home triumphs. But even leaving that advantage aside, the 'Riders have showed throughout the season that they're one of the CFL's top teams on merit - and it'll only take one more great performance to put that title in the history books.
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