Behind the loss

Before this week's by-elections fade from view entirely, let's highlight a couple of little-noticed points surrounding the results in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River.

First, as the Globe and Mail notes, the Libs' candidate appointment may not have been the only time when the party shot itself in the foot, as Lib-supported voter suppression legislation may have been another factor in the Cons' win:

(Liberal campaign officials) blamed their poor numbers partly on complacency among supporters who thought their candidate, former NDP cabinet minister Joan Beatty, had the riding sewn up, and on new election regulations that complicated the voting process for people on reserves. They say hundreds of people may have been prevented from voting because they didn't have photo ID and couldn't present proof of a civic address.

Of course, the Libs presumably made a calculated trade-off when they voted for the new voting rules in the first place, likely to the effect that they'd gain more ground by making voting difficult in urban areas than they'd lose in ridings like Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River. Which makes it disingenuous at best for the Libs to now be complaining about the obvious results of a bill which they supported.

That said, it does seem noteworthy that even in the face of the same rules, the NDP still managed to increase its share of the vote. Which might well reflect a real increase in NDP support in the riding - even if the Libs have gone out of their way to prevent it from registering at the polls.

Second, I'd mentioned when Beatty was first appointed, the respective vote totals required to win a federal riding as opposed to a provincial one made it doubtful that her provincial connections would get her much of the way to a victory. The flip side, of course, was that the federal riding would include far more voters with the ability to show their support - meaning that Beatty's seeming base level of support would include her provincial supporters plus the Libs' usual voters in the other half of the riding.

But interestingly enough, Beatty's vote total of 3,287 in the by-election lines up almost perfectly with her provincial totals (3,124 in 2007 and 3,268 in 2003) in a riding covering only half the area of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River. Which offers just another indication of how far the Libs fell short of expectations - and raises the question of whether Beatty, Orchard or anybody else can make up for the ground the Libs gave away.

On probabilities

Joan Beatty's appointment as the Libs' candidate in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River has obviously set off a couple of reactions: one of frustration among grassroots Libs, and one of feigned indignation from the Sask Party. But I haven't seen anybody look at what figures to be the most important question: namely, what kind of support will Beatty bring along with her as part of the jump, and what chance does she have to actually win the riding?

The answer about Beatty's individual impact can likely be taken from her track record. Here's the NDP share of vote in Cumberland over the last three provincial elections:

Year - Candidate - Vote
1999 - Keith Goulet - 69%
2003 - Joan Beatty - 69%
2007 - Joan Beatty - 66%

A quick look around online didn't turn up any more historical percentages of the vote. But given that the seat has stayed solidly NDP since 1975, it would seem reasonable to figure that Beatty's totals reflect the NDP's usual level for the riding. And while a typically strong candidate is likely one of the factors contributing to the NDP's historical success, there's little reason to think that Beatty herself added much to the standard party vote in the riding which now makes up half of the territory she'll have to cover.

What's more, Beatty's wins in Cumberland both came with just over 3000 votes. Which means that even if Beatty can bring some organization to the table, it still figures to fall far short of what's needed to actually make her competitive in the federal riding (where both the Libs and Cons received over 10,000 votes in 2007).

Speaking of in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River itself, all indications are that it took a combination of a high-profile candidate in Gary Merasty and a fairly pricy campaign for the Libs to to pull something close to the their peak vote in the riding in 2007 (just slightly below Rick Laliberte's 2000 percentage). And that was barely enough to give Merasty a narrow win over Jeremy Harrison.

Now, it's possible that Beatty will indeed carry a strong enough profile across northern Saskatchewan to eke out a Merasty-style win. But with the Cons figuring to make the seat a strong priority and at least some miffed Libs putting their support behind the NDP, it looks most likely that Beatty will only be added to Dion's list of losing appointments.

Implosion

Today's announcement that provincial leader David Karwacki will step down is a bad enough sign for the state of the Libs in Saskatchewan (if due to the perception of further defeat rather than Karwacki's own stature). But it looks like matters may only get worse, as the two leading figures within the federal party are on a collision course over the impending Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River by-election:

Stéphane Dion's hope of appointing a provincial NDP politician as the Liberal candidate for an expected federal by-election in Saskatchewan is angering supporters of one of his key leadership organizers, David Orchard.

The battle over who will carry the Liberal banner in a vast northern Saskatchewan riding has developed into a power struggle pitting MP Ralph Goodale, the party's strong man in the province, against Mr. Orchard, the prominent farm activist who twice ran for the leadership of the Progressive Conservatives.

Mr. Orchard has been campaigning heavily for the Liberal nomination in the riding of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, but Mr. Dion is seriously considering overriding the nomination race to appoint NDP MLA Joan Beatty as the candidate, Liberal sources said.

However, Ms. Beatty said yesterday that she has not decided whether she will run in the by-election, and even if she does, she hasn't yet chosen between the Liberals and the NDP.

"I've been approached to run federally for the northern riding by both the Liberals and the NDP. I have some decisions I have to make," she said in a telephone interview...

Mr. Dion's Saskatchewan leadership campaign was essentially the Orchard machine, and Mr. Orchard's organization also delivered delegates in rural Ontario and Alberta, as well as raising funds for the cash-poor campaign. That played a key role in placing Mr. Dion within striking distance on the first ballot at last December's Liberal leadership convention.

Mr. Orchard's senior organizers say they refuse to believe that Mr. Dion will appoint a candidate.

"It would be a colossal mistake on so many different levels," said Marjaleena Repo, an organizer for Mr. Orchard who also served as Saskatchewan co-chair for Mr. Dion's leadership campaign. "It would be very, very offensive."

"I would be anti-democratic and against every understanding and agreement - being asked to run there, and encouraged to run, and doing his damnedest to do a good job, and then somebody appointed over him? It would be just insane."

Now, I'm not entirely sure what party Orchard's organizers think they've joined if they "refuse to believe" that Dion would appoint a candidate rather than allowing riding association democracy to run its course. But this does offer yet another example of the inevitable frustration when a leader does impose candidates by fiat. And it's worth noting that the fracture within the Libs may well affect more than just the party's current members - particularly if a battle does go public before Beatty has made up her mind.

After all, the article notes that Beatty isn't yet tipping her hand as to which federal party she'd prefer to run for. And if the Libs are indeed in the midst of yet another round of internal turmoil which affects the very organization which would be needed to win the seat, then the NDP can only look all the better in comparison.

It remains to be seen whether the Libs will manage to create a perfect storm for themselves by outright driving Orchard and his followers out of the party entirely just in time to have Beatty turn them down as well. But one way or another, it looks entirely possible that the Libs may be left with nothing but yet another self-inflicted wound to show for Dion's musings about appointing Beatty.