Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Once again, the 'Riders' latest loss was more a story of missed opportunities than poor play overall - particularly in the third quarter, when Saskatchewan's near-total dominance on both sides of the ball led to a grand total of one point. But there's a downside to that type of loss as well, as the fixes normally available for a losing team don't apply to the 'Riders in the slightest.

Normally, the best advice for a struggling team is to take better care of the ball. And indeed, usually a losing streak involves losing the turnover battle handily - which tends to even out over time.

But the 'Riders' last two losses have featured a grand total of zero turnovers, to two for the team's opponents. So there's nowhere to go but down on that front.

Likewise, a struggling offence can normally find some obvious room to improve its completion rate. But Darian Durant has completed two-thirds of his passes over the past two weeks - and while a few too many of those have been for little or no gain, it's hard to see much prospect of pushing that number upward.

And aside from Geroy Simon's first-half eruption, the 'Riders' defence has played about as well as could be hoped for - holding two fairly strong offences to 22 and 24 points.

So what's left for the 'Riders to improve?

Well, the biggest problem looks to be getting some touchdowns out of the current possession offence. And there are a couple of obvious points which might help, including setting up receivers to take the ball in stride rather than catching the ball flat-footed, and designing plays to let Durant make better use of the time he buys to find receivers far downfield.

And of course it would help for the 'Riders to stop shooting themselves in the foot. In particular, it's beyond me how an offence with an elite quarterback has so much trouble working within the play clock - and indeed a faster-moving offence might also help to set up bigger plays by getting opposing defences off stride.

Meanwhile, the 'Riders' receivers have plenty of work to do on timing up the play without going offside - not to mention catching the ball once it reached them. (Needless to say, James Robinson didn't help on either front.) And of course, a better field-goal conversion rate would at least help to keep games close.

But even if the 'Riders can improve on those points, they might face enough concurrent decline in their turnover ratio to keep them on the losing side of any given game. Which means that while it's too early to give up on the season or any large number of the 'Riders' players, there's ample reason for concern that matters will get worse before they get better.

Update: I won't claim to have much insight on Dallas Baker, the import receiver who arrived in a trade for Luc Mullinder today. And hopefully he'll provide one of the playmakers the 'Riders have lacked.

But it's seldom a great feat of CFL roster management to trade a perfectly serviceable non-import for an import lottery ticket who was available as a free agent just months earlier. And if Baker isn't ready to help immediately, the effect of the deal will be to push the 'Riders even further away from where they need to go.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

It's disappointing enough for the 'Riders to lose to Calgary at home. But it's doubly so to manage the feat while playing about as well as could possibly be expected in two phases of the game - leaving huge questions about an offensive unit which was supposed to be the team's strength.

On the bright side, Saskatchewan's defence was superb until the middle of the fourth quarter. In effect, the secondary looks to have taken a page out of the Stamps' playbook, pressuring receivers and jumping routes at every turn while making sure tackles when the ball did arrive. Meanwhile, the defensive line kept consistent pressure on Henry Burris. And the result was another game where one of the CFL's top offences was prevented both from finishing long drives, and from beating the 'Riders with big plays.

Meanwhile, the special teams finally seem to be performing consistently. Brandon West had the top single runback of the day, but both he and Tristan Jackson regularly generated positive yardage on kick returns. And Eddie Johnson's combination of booming kicks and frequent trips downfield to try to recover the ball figure to have given him a strong chance to hold onto his job even if Luca Congi returns healthy (particularly if the 'Riders do in fact prefer having one player handle kickoffs, punts and field goals).

But then there was the offence.

Yes, the 'Riders managed a few scattered big plays, and looked fairly decent by the numbers. But even when they were able to put points on the board, they did it more through stunts and lucky breaks than through any sustained control over the ball. And perhaps most problematically, the biggest issue facing the 'Riders this season still seems to be entirely unresolved.

There was never much doubt that Weston Dressler would be Saskatchewan's key receiver this season, and he's more than lived up to the title. But the 'Riders seem no closer to deciding who should join him as a go-to pass-catcher than they were at the start of the year. And with Jason Clermont moving far too slowly to get separation from most defenders, Terrence Nunn dropping what should have been a momentum-builder early in the game, Efrem Hill again pairing a single solid catch-and-run with a damaging penalty and Chris Getzlaf still looking inconsistent, the answer looks more and more to be that the 'Riders won't find what they're looking for on their current roster.

Fortunately, the end of the NFL's lockout raises the prospect of a Fantuz return and/or an influx of talent from south of the border before the CFL season is done. But if the offence can't figure out how to produce more consistently in the meantime, the 'Riders will have a huge hole to dig themselves out of once that talent arrives.

[Edit: fixed typo.]

Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Another year, another close call in the Grey Cup as the Saskatchewan Roughriders fell three points short of the Alouettes yesterday. But the good news is that there are obvious areas where the team can improve for next season without affecting its overall game plan.

Indeed, one of the 'Riders' trouble spots for most of this season looks to have turned into a late-season strength - and promises to get all the better going into next year. For much of 2010, the team had trouble getting to opposing quarterbacks even in Gary Etcheverry's high-pressure system. But in the last few games, Jerrell Freeman's emergence and Brent Hawkins' return has gave the team the push it needed to frustrate even the league's top two veteran quarterbacks. And if Keith Shologan's playoff results hold up and Shomari Williams can improve from his rookie-season difficulties, the 'Riders may be back to having one of the league's top pass-rushing units from the start of 2011.

And indeed based on yesterday's game, there doesn't seem to be much missing from Saskatchewan's defence. The 'Riders clamped down on Avon Cobourne in addition to giving Anthony Calvillo fits for most of the game - and their biggest early-game weakness (tackling bigger receivers like Jamel Richardson and S.J. Green after a catch) was thoroughly fixed by the end.

Unfortunately, while the defence put the 'Riders in a position to win, the offence couldn't get the job done. And while it's tough to blame Darian Durant for his interception which effectively ended the game, there's a bit more reason for concern about the offence's weak production through the middle of the game when it had a chance to build on the 'Riders' only lead.

After all, the 'Riders actually deployed a better ground attack than they had in ages - which in theory should open up opportunities for Durant. But the passing attack didn't land a single deep play all game (the big gainers to Jason Clermont, Cary Koch and Andy Fantuz were all on catch-and-run plays), and was inconsistent at best on short- and mid-range routes. And that kept the 'Riders from either building an advantage, or taking back the game at the end.

But that looks to be more an issue of execution than personnel. So aside from maybe looking at making the line a bit more athletic for next season and working Jordan Sisco into a seven-receiver rotation, I'd doubt the 'Riders will want to make any big changes from a unit that showed the ability to dominate at times.

Meanwhile, the 'Riders' special teams had about as good a game as could have been expected. Yes, Montreal converted on a fake punt - but that was due to a missed tackle by Hawkins in a one-on-one matchup, not a problem with the coverage scheme. And the return games were close enough to even that there isn't much reason for concern.

That said, it's worth noting that while the special teams mostly executed what they were asked to do, the 'Riders' loss can be traced to limitations in the coaches' confidence. Before the Calgary game, one of my observations was that a lack of confidence in a team's kicking game can be huge when every point counts. And yesterday, the 'Riders punted on third downs from the Montreal 38 and 41 - leading to one point on the board, and five missing from what the team could have posted with a successful field goal unit.

Of course, kicks from that distance aren't gimmes for anybody in the CFL - as Damon Duval showed with his two misses. And even if Luca Congi hadn't been hurt, the 'Riders' normal kicker wouldn't figure to be a lock from those distances.

But it can't escape notice that despite using two roster spots on kickers including an import, the 'Riders didn't have enough confidence to even try a field goal from 45 yards. (Which might not have been the case if they'd jumped on, say, Justin Medlock when he was available.) And the points most certainly would have come in handy at the end.

The good news is that once the disappointment from yesterday wears off, there's plenty to look forward to for the 'Riders going into 2011. But it's always frustrating to fall just short, especially when that's due at least in part to problems which may well have been within the team's control. And hopefully the team will learn from its roster construction issues to take full advantage of another chance next year.

Friday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Following up on my relatively brief post here, I'll take a bit of time to note a few of the storylines going into Sunday's West final - with a focus on some factors which may matter more or less than one would think from the talk I've heard so far.

First off, in the category of factors which may be less important than one might think from the usual CFL commentary...

Andy Fantuz' Receiving Numbers

Yes, it's for the best if the league's leading receiver can once again torch the Stampeders for a 10/255 line. But the Stamps' response in the next game against Saskatchewan shows that they can shut him down if they put their mind to it - and the question for the 'Riders should be how to answer if that's once again Calgary's defensive focus.

On that point, Fantuz' well-known skill in managing time and space would seem to have more uses than just trying to get open himself. If Fantuz scares the Stamps enough to draw away coverage that allows a Getzlaf or a Dressler to get open deep, and if he responds to Brandon Browner's physical coverage in kind with some blocks that keep the Stamps' top defender from making plays, then the 'Riders' offence can operate smoothly even if he's shut down himself. (And indeed his 2-for-11 performance against the Lions didn't stop the 'Riders from getting this far.)

Joffrey Reynolds

There's been plenty of attention paid to the combination of the 'Riders' sometimes-shaky run defence and the Stamps' rushing prowess. But it's worth keeping in mind that even in a reasonably good game, Reynolds' rushing attack will produce less yardage per play than the Stamps' usual passing game.

So the 'Riders' best-case scenario is to have the Stamps rushing the ball as much as possible, preferably due to successful efforts to disrupt the passing game that's more likely to put the Stamps in control. And if Reynolds ends up with 100+ yards and the 'Riders come away with the win, I doubt anybody in green will be complaining.

Meanwhile, a couple of other points which don't seem to have received much attention deserve to be noted before they come into play...

Every Point Counts

The flip side of trying to force the Stampeders into a grind-it-out game is that the 'Riders will need to take advantage of their opportunities to score. And that's a problem with Warren Kean having not yet made a field goal longer than 29 yards, as a couple more misses could make a huge difference in a close game.

Part of the solution will hopefully be for Kean to pick up his game. But I'd also be curious to see whether the 'Riders will try to pick up some spare points in other ways - e.g. by having Eddie Johnson kick more for distance on punts and kickoffs in an effort to put a few singles on the board.

Playing to Win

Finally, let's note one strategic point that seems to have received little mention in last week's game. The Lions scored a touchdown with a second left to go in regulation time, giving them what would seem to me to be a rather important choice: take the single point and go to overtime, or go for a two-point convert which would have won the game immediately (barring a miracle on a single play or kickoff return).

The way the 'Riders' offence had played in the second half, I'd have expected the Lions to give serious consideration to taking their chances with the two-point convert. But instead, they chose to go to overtime...where their success on exactly the type of play that would have won the game in regulation only prolonged the Lions' agony as the 'Riders won on the second series.

Of course, it's generally considered safer for a coach to choose the default option of keeping his team alive. But the Lions' choice to play not to lose may well have cost them the West semi - and I'd hope Ken Miller will be more willing to take advantage of an opportunity to put the Stamps away if one arises.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Last week, the story for the Saskatchewan Roughriders involved missed opportunities and costly mistakes which extended the team's losing streak going into the final game of the regular season. But yesterday's win over Edmonton should at least put to rest the question of whether the 'Riders can translate their game plan into a win against a team playing for its season - even if the Eskimos did plenty to help the 'Riders out.

Offensively, the main change for the Roughriders was slightly more success in turning good field position and/or effective drives into touchdowns (with all three of those coming in a three-series blitz at the end of the first half and beginning of the second). But there's plenty to like about how the team played when it had the ball.

In a season which has regularly featured a balanced air attack, the 'Riders used the whole field better than ever yesterday, with six different receivers having both three or more catches and a top gainer of at least 15 yards. Of particular note, Wes Cates was used far more effectively out of the backfield than he has been for some time, providing Darian Durant with the outlet he needed virtually every time the Eskimos tried to pressure him. And Durant himself showed the kind of elusiveness that gives defences fits, ducking at least one seemingly sure sack and generally buying himself plenty of time to find receivers downfield.

Meanwhile, neither Darian Durant nor Cates posted huge numbers on the ground; however, they both managed to convert on the short-yardage plays where the running game was most important.

Which that isn't to say the team didn't leave plenty more points on the field: with two missed field goals and two more drives stopped just short of the end zone, the 'Riders may have had an opportunity to win in a walk rather than facing as close a game as they did. But that just means that there's still room for the 'Riders to improve in the weeks to come - which has to worry whoever gets the job of stopping them.

For the 'Riders' defence, the game was likewise one which saw some familiar patterns emerge - but this time on the positive side of the ledger as well as the negative. Yes, the 'Riders had plenty of trouble stopping Fred Stamps in the first half and Daniel Porter throughout the game. But they were able to largely shut down the rest of the Esks' passing attack, and were normally able to tighten up against the run when the Eskimos were threatening to reach the end zone.

More importantly, though, the defence was also able to take advantage of Ricky Ray's main weakness to get back on track in the turnover department. After the entire unit had gone two consecutive games without a single takeaway, Tad Kornegay and Byron Bullock each forced a second-half fumble by knocking the ball away from Ray - and those went a long way in preserving the 'Riders' lead.

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the game was the special-teams battle. Despite the 'Riders' two missed field goals, they were able to claim a clear victory in that department for what might be the first time all year thanks to a combination of perfectly-placed punts by Eddie Johnson, effective cover teams, and short kicks by the Eskimos.

That said, it's worth noting that the last factor - which gave the 'Riders the ball at their 39 or better on half a dozen possessions following a kick - isn't one that we can expect to see repeated anytime soon. Maybe it was Ryan Grice-Mullen's first kickoff return of the game (a 43-yard romp) that led the Esks to kick short on both punts and kickoffs the rest of the way, but I'd have a tough time believing the Eskimos couldn't have given themselves a better chance in the field position battle by kicking deeper and counting on their cover teams against a 'Rider unit that's struggled all year. And I highly doubt we'll see any of Saskatchewan's opponents the rest of the way hand them the ball near midfield so frequently.

That said, Edmonton's inexplicable kicking strategy is probably the only part of the 'Riders' win yesterday that shouldn't be repeatable against B.C. in the West semi-final. And it had to be a plus that the 'Riders can go into the playoffs focusing on keeping up and building on what they did well yesterday, rather than wondering whether they've completely lost the ability to close out a game.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

The Saskatchewan Roughriders' 37-13 win over B.C. undoubtedly made for a great turnaround from the previous week's result in Montreal. But it's less clear whether the 'Riders' performance actually reflected much improvement, or merely the result we should expect against a Lions squad on the verge of collapse.

The key to Saskatchewan's success was once again a seemingly ferocious defensive performance, with 5 sacks (3 by Jerrell Freeman) and 2 interceptions to go with subpar output in both points and yards. But while the 'Riders deserve credit for taking advantage, it's the Lions who presented about the best setup a defence could ask for.

After all, it isn't often that a team starts a quarterback whose greatest strength is a cannon arm, then schemes for him to use that arm mostly to achieve the highest possible bounce on short throws into the flat. Nor would a team that's struggled with the pass all season (and particularly in the game at hand) normally choose to pass on two thirds of its plays, especially when its running attack is churning out 10 yards per attempt. But the Lions gave the 'Riders a massive advantage by doing both - leading me to wonder whether their goal was as much to test out Jarious Jackson for future use as to try to compete with Saskatchewan in what was bound to be a tough game.

Meanwhile, the 'Riders' offence was effectively a mirror image in results from the previous week: unimpressive when it came to racking up big numbers (and B.C.'s defence deserves credit for keeping the 'Riders in check with effective tackling), but balanced and efficient enough to pile up points when it did get within scoring range. Indeed, the only real area of concern was Darien Durant's continued vulnerability to turnovers in the form of two more interceptions - but Durant more than made up for that with a strong ground game that kept the chains moving even when the passing game wasn't connecting.

As for the special teams, Eddie Johnson looks to have firmly entrenched himself as the 'Riders' punter with another strong game. But while the kicking unit looks to be set, the return and cover teams only played a struggling team to a draw, trading off slightly more effectiveness on punts for slightly less on kickoffs. That may not be the kind of performance that puts anybody's job in jeopardy, but nor should it be seen as any great triumph - particularly when it ranks as one of the team's best outcomes of the season.

That said, there's every reason to be satisfied with a game whose outcome was never really in doubt after the second quarter. But what remains to be seen now is how much impact the bye week has on the 'Riders - as a team which has managed to win in a lot of different ways so far tries to work out a formula that will enable it to take on all comers. And that task doesn't get any easier when there's so much reason to doubt that future opponents will give Saskatchewan the kind of advantages it enjoyed on Thursday.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Another game, another fairly solid win that could easily have been a blowout in the Saskatchewan Roughriders' favour. But there's reason for optimism both that the 'Riders have fixed a couple of their nagging weaknesses, and that they can remedy their current problems by digging into their existing playbook.

The main story coming out of the game was the 'Riders' inability to convert drives, with three separate trips inside the Hamilton 5 resulting in a field goal or less (and another two just barely turning into touchdowns). But while Hamilton deserves credit for some highly effective short-yardage defence, it's worth noting that the 'Riders would seem to have the ability to improve their chances of scoring by using some strategies that have been far more effective in the past.

After all, it's been well noted that the 'Riders have had a stellar track record on two-point conversions: given one play to score from the 5-yard-line, Darien Durant's offence hasn't been stopped a single time over the past two years. So why would the 'Riders have any trouble scoring with three chances starting from the 3 or closer?

The main problem seems to be a choice to play it safe in a couple of ways. On first down and on subsequent plays within a couple of yards of the end zone, the 'Riders regularly ran into the teeth of the defence - ensuring that the Ticats needed only a strong push from the line to hold the 'Riders back.

And in what's surely a somewhat related factor, the 'Riders were shockingly reluctant to let Darien Durant use his scrambling ability near the goal line. Every play after Durant's lone interception was apparently designed for either a handoff or a lob from the pocket into the back of the end zone - with the result that Durant had neither any chance to take the ball into the end zone himself, nor any angles for a quick pass to catch the secondary by surprise.

Fortunately, there would seem to be an obvious solution. Rather than fixating on playing it safe when that means making the defence's job far easier than it should be, why not use the 'Riders' two-point conversion playbook as their default option on plays outside the opponents' 1, treating the extra downs as bonus chances in case the first try doesn't work? At the very least, that would bring some of the 'Riders' key offensive strengths back into play - and as an added bonus, it would soften up the interior of the defence for when they do decide to try to pound the ball into the end zone.

Aside from its trouble converting drives, the other issue for Saskatchewan's offence was the success Hamilton's defensive backs had at times in timing and deflecting Durant's longer passes. This too looks to go to some predictability that's creeping into the 'Riders' offence - but should be easily fixed by relying somewhat less on rainbow passes and proportionally more on direct strikes underneath.

On defence, the obvious story was Arland Bruce's huge game, which feeds into the problems I've mentioned earlier with the 'Riders' ability to stop a single top speed receiver. But at this point, it's worth wondering whether that should be considered an acceptable price for combining Gary Etcheverry's trademark pass rush and push for turnovers with a generally effective run defence. After all, the 'Riders have now given up the two biggest individual receiving performances in the league this season (and three of the top five) - and have won each of those games.

Of course, the tip interceptions by Luc Mullinder and Lance Frazier did wonders for the 'Riders' chances in countering Hamilton's attack - and one can't particularly credit the defensive scheme for basic mistakes by the Ticats' receivers. But both Mullinder and Frazier did have to make brilliant plays to take advantage of those opportunities. And if there's a tradeoff to be made between the preparation needed to scheme to slow down a receiver like Bruce and that used to take advantage of chances to take the ball away from the opponents, I'd have to think the 'Riders have made the right call.

Meanwhile, the special teams had their best game of the year by far on all fronts. The most obvious strengths were Luca Congi's seven field goals along with Neal Hughes' blocked punt. But two other areas which may make for more consistent advantages are worth highlighting as well.

First, Eddie Johnson's kickoff distance was superb throughout the game - leading to two free points for the 'Riders as Marcus Thigpen was forced to retreat into his end zone. As it happened, the game wasn't close enough for those points to make a huge difference - but it's always worth taking whatever advantage a team can get.

And second, Dominique Dorsey had by far his best game of the year. Instead of letting punts bounce around as he had earlier, Dorsey managed to cash in on two fifteen-yard no-yards penalties, which combined with a couple of solid returns to help the 'Riders to better field position than they've enjoyed for ages. Of course, the 'Riders' opponents figure to notice that pattern and back off based on the knowledge that Dorsey isn't going to give them the benefit of a reduced penalty for getting too close. But that should only make it easier for Dorsey to find the blocks he'll need to break returns more consistently.

With Montreal looming next, the 'Riders will need to make sure both Dorsey and the offence are firing on all cylinders as they were in week 1. But yesterday's performance once again seemed to signal a team on the cusp of dominance - and Saskatchewan will surely be looking forward to seeing whether that holds up against the league's other top team from the past couple of seasons.

Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging

There are at least a couple of positives for 'Rider fans after last night's loss in Calgary: while his hang time left something to be desired, Eddie Johnson looks to have been a huge upgrade on the punting and kickoff performance the 'Riders have seen this year. And the team's group of receivers looks to be firing on all cylinders: three are on pace for 1,000+ yards and two more within striking distance, and all five managed at least one impressive catch last night to account for most of the 'Riders' offence.

Thus ends the good news. But there's plenty on the down side as well after a 20-point loss that by all rights should have been much worse than that.

Let's start for a change with the 'Riders' latest set of special-teams issues, as field position was a huge problem for the team all night (resulting in the offense racking up a lot of yards that didn't come close to leading to points).

While Johnson managed respectable distance on his kicks, it's worth wondering whether the kick cover units were unaccustomed to something about his style, as Deon Murphy was able to put up big returns at will on both punts and kickoffs - making for a new problem in an area that hadn't been a particular weakness yet this year. And the Stamps' big returns were all the more obvious in comparison to another weak game by Dominique Dorsey on a few fronts.

It's one thing if Dorsey doesn't have the raw speed to outrun cover teams - and I'm not sure the 'Riders would have reason to complain if Dorsey were combining moderate explosiveness with smart decisions about how to take kicks which resulted in consistent mid-range returns. But once again, Dorsey also made plenty of questionable decisions as to when and how to catch the ball, allowing Burke Dales to pin the 'Riders deep on multiple occasions by letting the ball bounce rather than making an effort to catch it on the fly. And it's hard to see what the 'Riders are getting out of a veteran returner when his of decision-making has been a consistent problem (to go with a lack of substantial returns when he has caught the ball).

Needless to say, Luca Congi's 1-for-3 performance was just icing on the cake. But in fairness to Congi, his kicking didn't figure to make much of a difference either way based on how the rest of the game played out.

Defensively, the 'Riders appeared to play well on the surface in a first half which saw the Stamps limited to 7 points. But it's worth questioning how much of that was based on the Stamps' weaknesses and choices rather than any particular defensive strength.

Both of James Patrick's interceptions seemed to be better classified as unforced errors by Henry Burris rather than the result of any great defensive play: Burris mostly succeeded in ducking the 'Riders' pressure throughout the game, and seemed to have better options on both plays than forcing the ball into the end zone. And while Nik Lewis' fumble was somewhat more directly caused by the defence, it too required a good bounce at the right time which left the Stamps scoring only seven points off of four first-half trips to the red zone.

After that first half marked by the Stamps missing their opportunities, it only took a single strike to Romby Bryant to send the 'Riders into panic mode. From that point on, Saskatchewan got little to no pressure on Burris and fell apart against the run. And not surprisingly, the end result was for Calgary to start converting after its regular marches down the field.

Meanwhile, the response from the 'Riders' offence had to be considered a disappointment as well. While its yardage looked fine on paper, the line lost most of the battles in the trenches, leaving Darien Durant to face a regular onslaught on defensive linemen. As a result, the offence put up most of its numbers thanks to spectacular receptions on low-percentage throws (which were balanced out by interceptions when similar plays went wrong), as well as Ken Miller's odd decision to leave the first-string offence on the field after the game was out of hand. But Durant and company didn't succeed either in taking control of the game when the Stamps were reeling in the second quarter, or in keeping up with Burris' production as Calgary put the game out of reach in the second half.

Of course, any team is bound to have a down game every now and then - and Burris is exactly the type of streaky quarterback who can hang a loss even on a team that's done everything it can. But the 'Riders can't plausibly claim to have met that standard yesterday - and the combination of new problems and familiar flaws in yesterday's game suggests that the team has plenty of room for improvement.