No certain defeat

I noted this morning that Bill Siksay's C-389 figures to face some challenges in getting through the Senate. But I don't see them being quite as insurmountable as John Ibbitson seems to think - particularly since the mere fact that Stephen Harper doesn't personally support it didn't serve as reason for the Cons to whip their vote in the House of Commons.

Instead, there would seem to be two obvious means to get the bill through: either by appealing to Cons in the Senate who may be personally supportive of the issue, or by shaming the Cons generally into allowing the bill to pass by turning Ibbitson's analysis into a criticism rather than a fait accompli. And I'd hope both options will be pursued in trying to achieve something positive before Harper pulls the plug on the current Parliament.

The obstacles ahead

It's great news that Bill Siksay's Bill c-389 to protect transgendered rights has passed third reading in the House of Commons - leaving no democratic barriers in the way of its becoming law.

But that doesn't mean there isn't still a battle ahead. And the treatment of C-389 may serve as a litmus test as to just how urgent a need there is to rein in the Senate.

After all, it wasn't long ago that another major NDP bill which passed with the support of a majority of elected MPs was stalled then shredded by the Cons' unelected, unaccountable patronage appointees.

At the time, the Cons made implausible excuses about the bill following an unusual process in the Senate. But if they go back to the same bag of tricks to torpedo C-389 as well (notwithstanding that even a few Con MPs voted for it), then I'm not sure there's any possible conclusion but that the Senate is irreparably broken - and that Harper and company are determined to keep it that way.

A glimmer of hope

Since the NDP's Climate Change Accountability Act was unceremoniously shredded by the Cons' unelected and unaccountable senators, there's been reason to wonder whether any opposition bill will see the light of day as long as Stephen Harper remains in power. But the voting on Bill Siksay's transgender rights legislation signals that all hope may not be lost for at least some good to come out of the current session of Parliament:

Want to know who are the most socially liberal MPs within the Conservative caucus? A vote Wednesday provided some clues.

By our count, five Conservative MPs—Heritage Minister James Moore, Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon, and parliamentary secretaries Shelly Glover, Sylvie Boucher and Gerald Keddy--voted in favour of an NDP-sponsored bill that would enhance the rights of transsexuals and transgender individuals.

Now, it's far from clear whether any Cons in the Senate are supportive of the bill. But the mere fact that the Cons didn't whip the vote in the House of Commons would seem to suggest that they're not dead-set against seeing C-389 passed - meaning that it figures to at least stand a better chance of surviving than most opposition private members' bills.

Time for some good news

Naturally, there's every reason to disagree with Charles McVety's framing of Bill Siksay's Bill C-389 on gender identity and gender expression. But it's rather interesting that he's applying pressure to the Cons - who have done nothing at all but vote against the bill - for refusing to make more of a public stink out of it. And it seems entirely possible that this may be the point where the Cons' culture warriors break their muzzles - with what are bound to be entertaining results.

That said, it's well worth pointing out the remarkable progress the bill has made with the Libs and Bloc both supporting it. And while there will surely be at least some shenanigans yet to come in the Senate, there's reason to hope that at least one positive social step might yet find its way into law even over the objection of the governing Cons.