On high-level tracking

With the January 28th membership deadline approaching for voters in the NDP's federal leadership campaign, I'll offer a brief high-level look at the campaign so far - and how it fits into the wider political scene. 

For the most part (other than the exceptions I'll get to shortly), the campaign seems to be best explained as reflecting a party recognizing the need to build itself up in generally rather than fighting for existing territory. Litmus tests which would have been applied in previous races (including bilingualism and experience in office) have largely fallen by the wayside in light of the actual candidate pool, while the interactions between the lower-ranking candidates in particular have been marked by regular cooperation to keep people in the race rather than any sense of competition. 

The result has been the presence of candidates to meet most target NDP voters, without a great deal of clash between them. And the stature of the approved candidates has generally fit the relative strength of their prototype within the party.

The two most prominent candidates have been Heather McPherson, following the urban prairie model whose success at the provincial level has made it the default for the party as it stands, and Avi Lewis running as an urban environmentalist and champion of economic equality. Both have some measure of national profile (McPherson as a sitting and well-respected MP, Lewis based on his media experience and personal ties), and would have fit comfortably among the class of contenders in previous leadership campaigns. 

As for the rest of the candidate, Rob Ashton has been a consensus choice for much of the labour movement and seems to have gained the most profile from the campaign to date. And his challenge to Lewis seems to have been treated as the first major oppositional moment of the campaign - though I'm not sure the end result is a bad one for Lewis, as a willingness to challenge rip-and-ship resource extraction and the toxic politics it's funded would seem to be a mantle that will serve him well in the leadership campaign. 

Tanille Johnston has reflected both Indigenous inclusion and municipal political experience, and Tony McQuail has offered a rural-agricultural perspective. But each would figure to have been a distant also-ran in any other leadership campaign in recent memory, and it's difficult to see a path to victory for either of them absent some serious negative impressions around the front-runners. 

The most obvious exclusion from the current mix has been any Quebecois or other francophone candidate. Yves Engler and then Bianca Mugyenyi have lurked around the race as informal candidates, and on paper would appear to add to the inclusiveness of the campaign as a whole. But unfortunately their efforts seem to have been aimed more at sniping from the sidelines than participating in the actual campaign - and while I would have preferred to see Engler's candidacy approved, there's significant reason to doubt the campaign is much worse off for his being rejected. 

For now, there's plenty of reason for people interested in the future of the NDP to at least ensure they're able to vote, while planning to take a critical look at the candidates as the campaign progresses.