Following up on yesterday's post, apparently the ultimate significance of majority support for a coalition seems to have been lost on some. So let's take a moment and remind ourselves that contrary to what might seem to be the case in the midst of a campaign, Canadian politics won't come to an end on election day.
Indeed, the most likely outcome when the campaign concludes still looks to be one along the lines of where Canada politics have been stuck for the past five years - with the Cons likely in first place in the party standings, but with no natural allies among the parties forming a majority of the House of Commons. And with Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff utterly at odds as to what options are available under those circumstances (with Harper describing a coalition as inevitable while Ignatieff foolishly tries to rule it out), what happens afterward is what will determine who forms the next government.
And on that front, surely we haven't yet forgotten the Cons' plans from 2008: to try to override the effects of a valid non-confidence vote by claiming that "the people" supported their desire to stay in power. Which looks like a rather difficult trick to pull off if "the people" are at worst evenly split on which formation they prefer.
Granted, if Harper can win the vote of every respondent who prefers a majority to a coalition, then the Cons have reason to be happy. But if he can't - and the very same poll shows that a key bloc of respondents fitting that description still plan to support a party other than the Cons - then the latest results suggest that any attempt to go "to the people" to override the majority of the MPs they've elected is doomed to failure.
No comments:
Post a Comment