Expanding the map

David Akin writes about some interesting numbers from Alice at Pundits' Guide which highlight the "seats-plus-seconds" results for the federal parties. And notably, it's the New Democrats alone out of the national parties in Parliament that can point to gains in that department:

PunditsGuide.ca took a look at the number of seats each party won and added in the number of races in which that party came second. Looking at this "seats-plus-seconds" statistic can provide some insight about a party's staying power and its ability to compete.

The Liberal seats-plus-seconds has now declined precipitously over the last four elections and is an indicator of the weakening of the overall brand.

In 1997, when Jean Chretien was winning his second majority, Liberals won 155 seats and finished second in 106 races, for a total "seats-plus-seconds" of 261. The Liberal "seats-plus-seconds" stayed strong through the elections of 2000 and 2004, at 279 and 280 respectively.

But in 2006, when Paul Martin's Liberals lost, the seats-plus-seconds total plunged to 219. Last week, it stood at just 200...

(T)he Conservatives won or finished second in just 238 seats, a slight decrease from 2006 when their seats-plus-seconds total was 241. Nonetheless, both those results are a marked improvement from 2004 when the newly minted Conservative party managed to finish first or second in just 189 ridings...

The New Democrats, on the other hand, may be most heartened by the trend in their seats-plus-seconds total as they try to muster enough votes and seats to perhaps one day form an Official Opposition.

For the first time ever, the NDP won or finished second in 104 or the 308 races they competed in, better than one-third. That's a big jump from 2000 when the NDP finished first or second in just 38 races across the country.

Now, it's worth noting that the "seats-plus-seconds" numbers are at best a very rough approximation of future growth potential. Indeed, there are at least a few seats where the NDP finished third or even fourth which look to be far more fertile ground than some of the more distant second-place finishes.

That said, the numbers are telling as to just what kind of map the federal parties are generally working with. And the comparison beteen the New Democrats and the Cons is particularly interesting. The Cons seem to have managed only to push a few more seats into the winning column within ridings which were already within the Cons' sights - making for what looks to be an unusually high ratio of seats won to top-2 finishes. In contrast, the NDP managed for the second consecutive campaign to make gains in both the "seats" and "seconds" parts of the equation.

Of course, there's still a ways to go for the NDP in reaching the raw number of competitive seats now held by the other two parties. But it surely has to be happy with having set a new high in the seats-plus-seconds department - particularly given the greater degree of difficulty compared to elections such as 1988 when there were effectively only two other competitors for those positions. And based on these numbers, there should be far less distance to travel to put more seats in the New Democrats' column next time out.